My answers to the 4 most important questions to be profitable
These are my answers to the four questions;
1. I prefer dutch, 80/20/, place bets.
2. I can spend 2 hours choosing selections. (1 hour the evening and 1 hour early morning).
3. I can cope with a downswing of 2-4 weeks.
4. I would like 2-4 selectons a day.
I have been focusing on all weather sprint racing with fields of 10 or below using the Monte Carlo Method, mainly trying to practice the final form reading bit. I haven't recorded any results.
Thank you for the answers @silviodante99, great to see you've already got started and have a good amount of time to spend 🙂
Would you be able to give me more details on the approach you've been using? If you practice it on Aldermist, then you can place bets and keep track of the results that way. At the moment you can only place win and each-way bets, but if you place a unit to win, or a normal dutch bet, then you can always get back to the race via your betting history to see the results. We will be adding place odds in the future.
When you say a downswing of 2-4 weeks, does this mean a losing streak of around 8-10 would be your comfort level?
I have been using one of the 'Art of the betting webinar strategies', 'Discover how you can see a race being run before it's even started'.
I haven't been placing bets on Aldermist but I will do that from now on.
I would be comfortable with a losing streak of around 10. Do you advise me to carry on with the Monte Carlo strategy I have been using or would you advise something else. Also does it make sense to specialise in AW sprints or am I just limiting myself for no good reason.
The time I would have for selections would be more often 1 hour rather than 2 hours.
@silviodante99 that's perfect, keep using that strategy, it's the perfect foundational strategy for what you're looking to achieve. It definitely makes sense to specialise in AW sprints. The benefit of doing this is that you begin to understand that race type inside out, and that makes all the difference when it comes down to the final judgement. I recommend only going up to 6 furlongs, although if that doesn't give you enough action you can increase that to 7 furlongs as the furthest distance.
Using Aldermist you'll get through a lot more in that hour than you would on live racing. If you could provide an example analysis of a race and your reasons for the selections I can help you adjust the way you're looking at the races.
Example analaysis of a race : Aldermist 5th Aug 23:20 - Flat AW 6F 1Y
Ran the Monte Carlo Simulator. Of the 4 top horses in the simulation only 3 were contenders from the PR odds overlay.
Brought up Count Otto's form saw it has been competitive over the the same ground and distance as todays race. Thought maybe an issue with the weight.
Next was Barrington. Did not think it has performed particulary well over the the same ground and distance as today. Also class was a problem.
The final horse was Fuente but again nothing there to suggest it was a contender.
Checked 5278CFR. Count Otto and Barrington were in top 4. Fuente scored 6.
GLR10. Count Otto scored well with Fuente average and Barrignton near bottom.
ACPFPCL. Count Otto and Barrington scored well and Fuente at the bottom.
SHORBES. Count Otto at top, Fuente and Barrington both in the middle.
From this information I thought Count Otto was the horse that stood out. Fuente did not seem to be a condender anymore and discounted Barrington because had not performed well enough over the same conditions as today.
As I was concerned about Count Otto and todays weight checked the Mote Carlo Simulator results and saw it finished fairly comfortably ahead of the other 2 contenders.
I then selected Count Otto's race form and could see from it's PFP and ACPFPCL results apart from when it went up in class to class 2 races the scores were steadily rising and and were rising on the most recent form.
I decided to place a back bet on Count Otto.
It finished 2nd. Not to any of the contenders I had identified.
Should I be doing more anaysis? More speed analysis perhaps as I am only concentrating on AW sprints.
@silviodante99 this is a very good and strong analysis. Don't worry that the horse didn't win, it came second, the analysis is what's important. Reflektor won the race at odds of 11.17 and was the outsider. Based on odds this horse would have had a chance of 8.95% of winning.
When we use quick methods of shortlisting we will always get winners that weren't in our shortlist, that's the nature of it, don't think that because this happened you made a mistake. We will also always get outsiders winning etc. they're not our concern, we have to accept them as they are and move on.
Having gone through the race your analysis looks spot on. The only thing I would have not agreed with is the weight concern. You can see in the image attached there were two races where the horse was carrying similar weight, over similar distance, and performed well.
For now I would do some more of these because based on this you should improve very quickly. Go through until you have done ten and then let's look again. Make sure you keep the notes, or post each one here so we can look and discuss them if we need to. We can add more speed in later, but for now I wouldn't because I can't see any issues with this analysis except your confidence in it 🙂
I have written notes on 10 races using the Foundational Monte Carlo Strategy. Below is the analysis of each. It is all done using Aldermist. (I wasn't sure if you wanted all 10 put included them anyway).
For each race I took out the Weight/OR, ran the Monte Carlo simulator and then if needed deselected any horse with odds bigger than 29/1. Any horse marked as a potential contender within the PR odds overlay I analysed as a possible contender.
19th August 21:10
Staffa was the only horse marked as a potential.
Its form said it could perform over the ground and distance and could carry todays weight.
Also was a CD winner but was not the only one.
5278CFR - Was ranked 3.
SHORBES - Middle /lower middle, not great.
GLR10 - Scored well with a 7.
ACPFPCL - Around middle.
Nothing to really say don't bet apart from the other 4 CD winners. Although two of them were at odds of around 12/1 and 14/1.
Odds were 4/1 so went with a win bet on Staffa.
20th August 04:30
Potentials were The British Lion and Hello My Sunshine.
The British Lion was competitive at a class up from todays race, at todays distance, ground conditions but at a weight of 9-2. Carrying a heavier weight, like todays weight, did not do so well.
5278CRF - Ranked 3
SHORBES - Top
GLR10 - 2nd from top
ACPFPCL - Near top but no score for all so didn't pay too much attention to it.
Tried to ascertain if it could take todays extra weight. Top of Monte Carlo and enough ahead of Shades of Mist in 2nd. Well ahead of Hello my Sunshine in 4th. Checked that PFP is on the up but not a lot of data. Not enough data for ACPFPCL. Decided it was okay with the weight.
Hello My Sunshine has not quite been competitive over longer distance than todays race and on GF ground.
5278CRF - Ranked 4
SHORBES - 2nd from top
GLR10 - Middle
ACPFPCL - No Score
The British Lion stood out from the 2. Placed a Win bet on The British Lion.
Result - The British Lion 1st.
20th August 06:30
The Potential horses I was left with was Lord Cooper and Invincible Ridge.
Lord Cooper has performed over the ground and distance and in todays class. Can carry todays weight.
5278CRF - Ranked 1
SHORBES - Near the top
GLR10 - In the middle
ACPFPCL - Middle of the pack
Invincible Ridge like Lord Cooper can perform in todays conditions.
5278CRF - Ranked 6
SHORBES - Near the top
GLR10 - Middle
ACPFPCL - Top
Both looked like good bets so placed a win bet on Lord Cooper and an EW bet on Invincible Ridge because at 9.13 I felt the odds were right for an EW bet. I 'd rather be cautious if possible.
Result - Lord Cooper 5th, Invisible Ridge 1st
20th August 19:50
Potential horses were Moonraker, Young Tiger and Samovar.
Moonraker competitive over ground and distance and weight doesn't seem to be an issue. Performed in a class above todays. Strong on form. Taking the 5278CFR, SHORBES, GLR10 and ACPFPCL into account it scored well in 3 out of 4 of the factors.
Young Tiger has gone well over the ground and distance carrying a heavier weight but class seems like a problem. It has performed in a class 4 over the distance but it was a long time ago. Strong on the 5278CRF, SHORBES and GLR10 factors but where ACPFPCL is concerned middle of the pack but lower than 1500 and way off the top. Some negatives here.
Samovar Has performed up a class but at a lower weight. Good over the ground and distance at at todays class. Carried more than todays weight and was competitive in a class 5. Todays class is a class 4. Did well in 3 out of four factors. A decent shout for the race.
I think Moonraker is the strongest horse followed by Samovar. Young tiger has to much against it in my opinion.
Dutched Moonraker and Samovar.
Result - Young Tiger won with Moonraker 5th and Samovar 3rd.
20th August 20:30
The two potentials I was left with was Casterbridge and Ambitious Icarus.
Casterbridge has performed on todays ground over the distance and should carry todays weight alright. has performed in a higher class over the same conditions as today. The 5278CRF, SHORBES, GLR10 and ACPFPCL scores for this horse were nothing great.
Ambitious Icarus is capable over todays conditions and the weight should not be a problem. Although it has been racing in a lower class recently. The 5278CRF, SHORBES, GLR10 and ACPFPCL scores were almost all good.
With odds all fairly close decided on a bit of caution. Placed an EW bet on Ambitious (cautious bit). Also place a win bet on Casterbridge.
Result - Ambitious finished last and Casterbridge 6th
20th August 22:20
Three potentials were thrown up for this race. Fashion Free, Ossco and Zain Storm.
Fashion Free hasn't perfomed on ground, not really performed over distance or in the class. Has been competitive carrying a higher weight than today at a lower class. Not great but did okay when taking the 4 factors into account.
Ossaco has been good in todays class, over the distance and on todays ground. The weight it has today it has carryied well but in lower class. Like fashion Free did okay when taking the 4 factors into account. Checked to see if it could carry todays weight - On the MC simulator well behind the 1st and 2nd placed. 1st being Fashion Free. Not enough data on race card for PFP and ACPFPCL
Zain Storm has performed well over todays conditions, distance and in the class. Should be comfortable with the weight. The 4 factors for this horse back up its crendentials.
Zain Storm looks the strongest, Fashion Free has too much against it and Ossaco may have a problem with the weight.
Placed an EW bet on Zain Storm.
Result Fashion Free 1st with Zain Storm 3rd.
21 August 18:10
The potentials that arose were Classic Pursuit, Treaty of Rome and Amazing Grazing.
The Monte Carlo simulation was very close looking at the top 5. The market odds were also very close. Debated going forward with this one because finding the winner could be too difficult.
Classic Pursuit was good on the ground the last time out in a higher class. Has been competitive at todays distance carrying todays weight albeit on GF but it was in a class 5 like this meeting. Did okay when compared against the 4 factors.
Treaty Of Rome has competed on the ground and distance in a class 4. I'm confident it can carry the weight as it has carryed it before. Horse has won under todays ground conditions at todays distance and class carrying heavier weight but it was too long ago to be that relevant. Strongest so far. Performed well on the 4 factors, best of the 3.
Amazing Graze has performed in similar conditions as today and at the distance, class, carrying the same weight. It has won at a slighty lower weight that today with everything else the same. It did alright when considering the 4 factors, although not standout.
I believe The Treaty Of Rome to be the strongest but I cannot discount the other two.
Dutched all 3 horses
Result - Treaty Of Rome 2nd, Classic Pursuit 3rd and Amazing Graze was last.
21 August 18:30
Monument Man is the only potential horse.
Close to being competitive the in the last but one race in the same class as todays race and at the distance. Seems alright on the ground. Weight and class could be an issue. Has not performed in a 7K race like todays.
The top 5 horses were close together in the Monte Carlo simulator. Up and down on the race card PFP and ACPFPCL.
5278CRF - 4
SHORBES - 2nd top
GLR10 - joint top
ACPFPCL - just above middle
Did well when considering the 4 factors.
Still not totally convinced so checked the PR odds which were lower than the market odds 9.12 - 9.75. Not too big a gap.
I decided not enough here for even a EW bet. Did not bet on the race at all.
Result Monument Man 2nd
21st August 23:20
Oriental Splendour has previously done well in the same class as today on the same ground, over the same distance carrying similar weight. 5 furlongs is all the horse has raced in over the last 2 1/2 years. It has been competitive a number of times at the distance and has performed in a class 4.
When looking at those 4 factors it is 1st for 5278CRF, lower down in the SHORBES list, in the middle of the GLR10 list with a score of 3 with 5 other horses and 2nd from top with a score of 1500 with only one other scoring 1500 or over in the ACPFPCL section.
All this points to a strong condender.
Could go with a win bet but as I am fairly risk averse went with an EW bet on Oriental Splendour as also the odds dictated this to me. Odds were 7.59.
Result - Oriential Splendour came 4th
22nd August 02:20
Arnoul Of Metz and Always Amazing made the cut as possible contenders.
Arnoul Of Metz has performed over the ground conditions in a class 5, one class above todays race class. It has also carried close to the weight of today over 5 furlongs and managed a 2nd place. When considering the 4 Factors only the GLR10 is not great with 4 horses scoring better.
Always Amazing has competed over the distance and in todays conditions in a class 6 race. It has caried 9-5 over 6 furlongs to win a class 5, today it is carrying a similar weight but the distance is less. When considering the 4 factors it is does well in all 4 sections.
Not a lot between the 2 horses, both seem quite strong so when looking at the odds decided to place a dutch bet on both Arnoul Of Metz and Always Amazing.
Result - Always Amazing 3rd and Arnoul Of Metz 5th.
Any advice on what to do next would be much appreciated.
Sorry for the long post.
This is awesome 😀
Big congratulations so far, the performance is a very strong start, what was your A/E, SR and ROI?
When analysing our performance during this phase, we should always be careful to separate the analysis performance vs the profit performance.
Bet structure can turn a good analysis into a loss, that doesn't mean the race was analysed incorrectly, it just means our bet structure didn't result in a profit which could be bad luck or may mean we need to look at that later.
In terms of analysis, this looks like an excellent start. You got a contender in the top three in 7 out of ten races, and in some you got multiple horses in the top three. That's excellent.
I think there is some tightening up that can be done on the analysis, particularly with the SHORBES rating. This is a useful rating, but on it's own it can be a bit misleading. It shows us the Best Ever speed rating over today's race type, which is useful, but without knowing how long ago it was, or how it compares to the horses general speed performance it can hinder us. For example, a runner may have a really good SHORBES but it took place 3 years ago, and without more information we wouldn't know that. There are a few ways to deal with this:
1) You can pick this up on the horse history
2) You can use the speed graphs
3) You can add in an SHORAvS or SHORAvSTD
Rather than adding in the speed graphs I would suggest adding in the SHORAvSTD and and also checking the horse history, which you're already doing. With this rating added you can compare the best ever against an average to get an indication of whether the best ever is likely to repeat again or not.
The other thing to check is when you have a niggle, like this:
Nothing to really say don't bet apart from the other 4 CD winners. Although two of them were at odds of around 12/1 and 14/1.
You start by saying nothing really to say don't bet, but then go on to give a possible reason. I call this a niggle. In this case, it doesn't matter what the odds are, unless they're above your betting threshold, it's worth spending a few minutes looking into them to see how their performance compares against your contenders. Do this at the end, just before you decide how to bet, don't do it during the primary analysis.
You'll notice that on two of the three races where you didn't get a contender in the top three, you had niggles:
With odds all fairly close decided on a bit of caution.
Here was the niggle, but you didn't look at the others with close odds. The alternative is, of course, to skip the race.
Always listen to these niggles, they will save you a lot of losses. It will feel like they're stopping your profits because you will only notice when they stop you placing a winning bet, but if you track you'll find they do the opposite and over the long-term increase your profit. If you have a niggle and don't have time to look into the runners causing it, skip the race.
Let me know the results you got, and do this over another batch of races and lets see if we can tighten the analysis a bit. Depending on how you go we can then consider looking at the bet structure and if there needs to be any adjustments on that.
The results for the previous 10 batches of races were;
Total Profit -£25.15 ROI -£47.45% Strike Rate 15.79% A/E ratio 0.66
I have analysed another batch of races.
For each race I took out the Weight/OR, ran the Monte Carlo simulator and then if needed deselected any horse with odds bigger than 29/1. Any horse marked as a potential contender within the PR odds overlay I analysed as a possible contender. I looked over the form and 5278CRF, SHORAvSTD, GLR10 and ACPFPCL scores.
I have replaced the SHORBES factor with SHORAvSTD.
26th August 01:10
Senorita Grande has performed on todays ground, over the distance, in todays class. The weight should be fine. It has done well since moving up in class. It was number 1 on 5278CRF, top by some way on SHORAvSTD, GLR10 was below middle, did not do well in ACPFPCL.
Poeta Brasilereiro has done well on the ground, over the distance, in todays class. Weight should not be a problem. Has won in a higher class, class 5. It has also carried a higher weight to win. SHORAvSTD, GLR10, ACPFPCL numbers all decent. 5278CRF was 7.
Napping competed well over ground, distance, in class. Should be fine with todays weight. 5278CRF, GLR10, ACPFPCL were all good scores. SHORAvSTD was not so good.
All these horses have shown good ability in todays race type. Senorita Grande seems to have the best speed. Still I felt I could not leave one out so dutched all 3.
Results - 2nd Senoita Grande, 3rd Poeta Brasileiro, 4th Napping.
26th August 22:30
Agent Shiftwell has contended on todays ground, over the distance and into todays class. Weight should not be a problem. 5278CRF, SHORAvSTD, GLR10 and ACPFPCL numbers are very good. SHORBES score is very close to SHORAvSTD score.
Augustus Caesar has performed in todays race type carrying roughly the same weight. It has also beaten Agent Shiftwell. SHORAvSTD, GLR10, ACPFPCL all good scores, 5278CFR was a 6 so not so good.
Requiems has competed well in todays class over the distance but on good to firm ground. It hasn't done it on SD ground. Todays weight should be carried well. 5278CRF, SHORAvSTD, GLR10 are very good numbers but there is no number for ACPFPCL.
Requiems best speed figure on todays race type is lower than Agent Shiftwells average speed figure on todays race type which is a positive for Agent Shiftwell over Requiem. Augustus Caesars average speed figure on todays race type is not too far off Requiems best speed figure on todays race type. Requiem also has not performed on todays SD ground. For me this swings it Agent Shiftwell and Augus Carsars way. Placed a win bet on Agent Shiftwell and an EW bet on Augustus Caesar.
Result - 1st Agent Shiftwell, Augustus Caesar 3rd
27th August 04:20
Rose Berry has competed well on todays ground, over the distance, in the class. Weight seems fine. The scores on the 4 factors are all excellent.
Human Nature has done well in todays class, on ground as well as over distance. Although has not performed on todays ground at todays distance (combined). ACPFPCL figure top and quite a bit above Rose Berry in 3rd. All other factors good.
Lightening Charlie performed on todays SS ground, over the distance and in race class of today. The weight seems okay. It might be better on SD rather than SS ground but has competed on SS over 7 furlongs however this was more than 2 years ago. All factor scores fairly good apart from the SHORAvSTD figure which is very low. No where near the best.
I think Rose Berry is the best horse with Human Nature looking good enough to compete. Lightening Charlie's ground issue and SHORAvSTD score suggest to me it is too risky to bet on. I placed a win bet Rose Berry and an EW bet on Human Nature.
Result - Lightening Charlie 3rd, Rose Berry 4th, Human Nature 5th.
27th August 22:30
Something Lucky has performed on the ground, distance and class the same as today. Competed in a class 4 race such as todays race on GF carrying more weight than today. It has finished 1st in its last 2 outings, a class 7 and class 6 race, today is a class 5. 2 out of 4 factors good. SHORAvSTD and ACPFPCL not particularly good.
Pearl Acclaim has been good in a class 4 race (today is class 5) with significantly lower weight than todays race. Scores well on all 4 factors.
I think Pearl Acclaim might have a problem with the weight. Checked the position in MC simulator. It finished top but very close to Something Lucky in 2nd. Its PFP score increases for the better of late and the ACPFPCL score going down of late. With this in mind I placed a win bet on Something Lucky.
Result - Something Lucky 3rd, Pearl Acclaim 5th
27th August 23:30
Impart has performed at a class above todays race on GS and on SD ground at 5F. Weight should not be an issue. 5278CRF was 8, SHORAvSTD was 2nd but a distance from the top score, GLR10 and ACPFPCL scores was good.
Oriental Lilly has competed well in a class 5 over 5 furlongs on todays SD ground. Not in todays class or distance. Strong on the 4 factors score. The SHORAvSTD score was top by a distance and close to its best ever rating on todays race type. Horse is moving up in class but won last 2 at 5 furlongs today is 6 furlongs. First time in class 4.
Oriental Lilly does not have enough evidence it can handle todays class and distance. Impart has done it in a class above todays on SD ground at 6 furlongs. I placed an EW bet on Impart
Result- Oriental Lilly 3rd, Impart 7th
28th August 01:40
Power Link has won in a class 4 race over 6 furlongs on SS ground and won a class 5 , 6 furlong race on SD ground and can carry the weight on over the ground and distance but has not proved that in a class 3.
El Hombre has competed well in a class 3 race on todays ground carrying more weight than today. It has also performed in a C2 albeit with a lower weight. 5278CRF and SHORAvSTD scores were not too bad with the GLR10 and ACPFPCL scores very good. The ACPFPCL is way higher than the other 2 potential horses.
Watchable has performed well under todays conditions, over the distance and in the same class carrying and handling quite a bit more weight. 5278CRF, SHORAvSTD, GLR10 and ACPFPCL not particularly good scores.
Not performing well in todays class has put me off Power Link. Even thoughth the 2nd bit of the form reading did not look all that good for El Hombre, I decided it still looked like it might have enough considering the 1st bit of the form reading suggested it looked quite good. Dutched El Hombre and Watchable.
Result - El Hombre 3rd, Watchable 7th
28th August 13:30
Hareen Queen has performed well over the distance and the ground. The weight loooks to be fine. Class could be a problem, it has won a C5 and C4 in its last 2 outings. It was top in the 5278CRF section and the other 3 factors were decent.
Samovar is basically the same as above for the first bit of the forn reading with the 4 form factors slightly worse.
Tawny Port has competed well in an SD over a longer distance in a C3 race with weight not seeming to be an issue. Has won over distance on turf. Its SHORAvSTD is way off the top 2 otherwise all the factor scores are good.
Tawney Port has the most positives especially with the class issues of the other 2
Result - Samovar 1st, Hareen Queen 2nd and Tawny Port 3rd.
28th August 15:50
Magic Applause has done well in a C5, 5 furlong race such as todays on GF. The weight looks okay. The SHORAvSTD and ACPFPCL sections does not have enough data with the 5278CRF and GLR10 numbers are excellent.
Magic Pulse has won on todays surface, over the distance but it was in a C6, has not performed well in a C5. Has scored decently on the 4 form factors.
Crystal Deaville is much the same as Magic Pulse but with slightly worse scores when it comes to the form factors.
Again competing well in todays class seems like a problem for Magic Pulse and Crystal Deaville. Magic Applause looks like the strongest horse so placed a win bet on it.
Result - Crystal Deaville 1st, Magic Applause 5th, Magic Pulse 6th.
28th August 16:50
Airshow has performed well in C3 on SS. Won on SD ground in C4 over 6 furlongs. Has carried a similar weight in C4. Todays weight could be a problem so checked MC sim, PFP and ACPFPCL on racecard. A distance from 1st 2 on MC simulator PFP mainly upward streak. ACPFPCL fairly flat of late. All form factors good apart form SHORAvSTD which was bottom.
Global Tango has ran well on SD ground, over 6 furlongs, in C4 and SS, in C4 over 6 furlongs. Performed well over 6 furlongs and 7 furlongs on SS but in C4. Very good on the 4 form factors especially in the SHORAvSTD score where it beat the others well. Performed well on SS ground over 6 furlongs. On MC simulator was 2nd by a distance. PFP was gradually going up, ACPFPCL gradual step up except one to last.
Prince of Rome has performed on SD ground, over 5 furlongs in a C4, carrying more weight than today. It has won in a C4 and C5 on SD surface. The 4 form factor scores were good.
Zac Brown has competed well in a C3, over 6 furlongs on SD. Not good in a C3 over todays distance apart from over 2 years ago. on GF. The weight should not be an issue. For 5278CRF it was number 2, the other 3 the scores were not good.
Global Tango's speed figure was very good and PFP and ACPFPCL was on the up and Zac Brown is the only horse that has performed in a C3. Placed a wn bet on Global Tango and an EW bet on Zac Brown.
Result - Airshow 1st, Global Tango 4th, Prince of Rome 2nd, Zac Brown 3rd.
28th August 19:30
Glenmoore has competed well over 5 furlongs, on SD ground, in todays class. Weight should be fine It has won a 6 furlong and a 7 furlong race on SD ground in todays class. Strong on all 4 form factors. Looks like a good condender.
Danz Gift has performed well over 5 furlongs, on SD ground in the class of today, carrying todays weight. It seems more proven over 5 furlongs than Glenmoore. Apart from the SHORAvSTD score, good scores on the form factors.
Pillar has done well on SD ground, over 5 furlongs, in todays class. Weight good. All 4 form factor scores are decent or above.
Blastofmagic won the last time out at 5 furlongs, on SD going in the class of todays race, carrying a similar weight. Okay form factor scores.
Danz Gift looks to have good speed and is more experienced than Glenmoore but Glenmoore seems like a strong condender aswell. I dutched Glenmoore and Danz Gift.
Result - Danz Gift 2nd, Glenmoore 3rd, Pillar 4th, Blastofmagic 5th.
Total Profit -£67.00 ROI -88.22% SR 4.76% A/E Ratio 0.20%
Doesn't look very good 😀
I think I may be putting too much emphasis on the lack of performance of the horse in the race class of the upcoming race, among other things.
Thank you for the great analysis. First of all let's take a step back. One of your shortlisted horses appeared in a win or place position in every single one of these races. That's excellent.
Before we start changing the analysis, which on the face of it looks okay although may need some adjustments, I think we need to look at the bet structure and how you're deciding which runners to bet on.
I prefer dutch, 80/20/, place bets.
Remember saying this 🙂 at the moment you are placing a lot of win and each-way bets. I know this is partly because we don't yet have a place market available on Aldermist, but I think you're focusing on the wrong bet type for you.
As an example, if you'd just dutched all selections, you'd have found the winner in 40% of the ten races above. Of course that doesn't mean a profit will have been made, but the strike rate would have been good.
Let's pull back to dutch bets only for the moment. Can we either:
a) Run another ten selections with dutch bets only
b) Go back over past selections with dutch bets only and see the results
Depending on how this looks will depend on how we move forwards.
We also need to remember that these are only ten or twenty selections, even with a 40% strike rate you could get eight consecutive losers every fifty bets.
I have a analysed some more races using the Foundational Monte Carlo Method.
For each race I took out the Weight/OR, ran the Monte Carlo simulator and then if needed deselected any horse with odds bigger than 29/1. Any horse marked as a potential contender within the PR odds overlay I analysed as a possible contender. I looked over the form first and then used 5278CRF, SHORAvSTD, GLR10 and ACPFPCL scores to affirm the selection was a contender or maybe give me further cause to discount it as a contender.
I dutched all the selections I chose to bet on. (apart from one).
I carried out the same process as the previous 10 races posted above, so did not type out the analysis this time.
5th September 00:20
Contenders analysed - Two Seas, Skyva and Fantasy Justifier.
I placed a dutch bet on Two Seas, Skyva and Fantasy Justifier.
Result - Fantasy Justifier 1st, Skyva 3rd, Two Seas 6th.
5th September 03:00
Contenders analysed - Royal Prospect, Athollblair Boy, Nick Vedder and Equiano Spring.
I placed a dutch bet on Royal Prospect and Atollblair.
Result - Royal Prospect 2nd and Athollblair 3rd. (Nick Vedder 6th and Equano Spring 5th).
5th September 15:40
Contenders analysed - Filbert Street and Sambuca Spirit.
I placed an E/W bet on Filbert Street as it was the only horse I felt I should back.
Result - Filburt Street 5th (Sambuca Spirit 1st 🤣 ).
5th September 15:40
Contenders analysed - Another Angel and Star Cracker.
I placed a dutch bet on Another Angel and Star Cracker.
Result - Star Cracker 3rd and Another Angel 4th.
6 September 18:00
Contenders analysed - Calder Prince and Fast Track.
I placed a dutch bet on both.
Result - Calder Prince 2nd and Fast Track 6th.
6 September 18:30
Contenders analysed - Poeta Brasileiro, Vallarta and Round the Island.
I placed a dutch bet on Poeta Brasileriro and Vallarta.
Result - Vallarta 3rd and Poeta Brasileiro 6th (Round the Island 4th).
6th September 23:30
Contenders analysed - El Hombre, Outrage, and Watchable.
Dutched all 3.
Result - Outage 1st, El Hombre 6th and Watchable 8th.
23:50 September 23:50
Contenders analysed - Broadhaven Honely, Bond Bombshell and Swendab.
Dutched all 3.
Result - Bond Bombshell 2nd, Swendab 3rd and Broadhaven Honely 7th.
7th September 01:50
Contenders analysed - Uncle Jerry, Balata Bay Chitra and Sandridge Lad.
Dutched Uncle Jerry and Balata Bay.
Result - Uncle Jerry 2nd and Balata Bay 8th (Chitra 1st and Sandridge Lad 4th).
I didn't pick Chitra because it hadn't performed in todays class over the distance or perfromed on SD ground in todays class.
8th September 00:00
Contenders analysed - Camachess, Deconso, Global Acclamation and Oxygen.
Dutched Camachess and Global Acclamation.
Result - Global Acclamation 3rd and Camachess 4th (Oxygen 1st and Deconso 5th).
NB. I thought the distance might prove a problem for Oxygen as it hadn't ran over 6 furlongs let alone performed over the distance.
9th September 02:50
Contenders analysed - Black Truffle, Good Business and Frank the Barber.
Dutched Black Truffle and Frank the Barbour.
Result - Black Truffle 3rd and Frank the Barbour 7th. (Good Business 1th).
NB. I didn't think Good Businees had performed over the distance and it might stuggle with the weight.
Total Profit - 37.45 ROI - 67.56% Strike Rate 8.00% A/E Ratio 0.39
Mindset wise, I found dutching all the selections (if I had more than one horse) more suitable for me.
When it comes to form reading, after I analyse if it has performed well over similar conditions to todays race, should I just be looking at 5278CRF, SHORAvSTD, GLR10 and ACPFPCL scores to affirm the selection is a contender or should I put more emphasis on the scores. If it hasn't ran well over similar conditons should I really be looking to discount the horse regardless of the 5278CRF, SHORAvSTD, GLR10 and ACPFPCL scores.
Also would you say a horse is a contender if it has finished 2 lengths or fewer from the winner in a sprint race when looking at a horses history? (obviously ground, distance etc has to be considered as well). Do you also look at its finishing position eg. It has to have finished in the frame?
Thank you for this. I think your strike rate on the dutch bets is 18%, you should be calculating it on the bet, not the individual horses in the bet. It's obviously not high enough yet, but we want to be tracking the right number.
Looking at the losing races, one you didn't dutch the bet and that would have been a winner, so I'm going to discount that for the moment.
Of the other 8, one of your selections came in second and third in every single one.
The first thing to check is whether the winner was on your original contender list in these at all, and if not where they came from. Some of them you won't be able to find, that's fine, but we should be able to see where they're being missed by looking back.
Any horse marked as a potential contender within the PR odds overlay I analysed as a possible contender
This could be one area. Just because a horse isn't showing potential value, doesn't mean it can't win the race. For now we should be focusing on getting the strike rate up, that's the first focus. We can then look at reducing again later for profit.
With that in mind, I'd go through the above races again and see if you can find where those winners were coming from in as many cases as possible, first check is if they're coming from PR Odds contenders with no indicated value, or if they're coming from top of the market. If they are, we want to run another ten, but include these in your initial contenders. If not we need to find the common thread that links them together so we can add it into the initial contender process.
Could you just clarify what you mean by
first check is if they're coming from PR Odds contenders with no indicated value
Of course, sorry for not being clear 🙂 If you go back over the last ten races and take the winners that weren't part of your contenders. We want to find if these were highlighted in one of the ratings you're using but they were skipped for some reason.
An example is that you are checking for PR Contenders, but only considering those offering value. What has happened to the ones that don't offer value, are they still winning? Are the majority of missing winners from your contenders being skipped because they don't show potential value here?
If not that's fine. The next thing to do is go through the winners that weren't on your contenders list, and look at the other ratings you use, were the majority of them highlighted somewhere in one of these ratings?
When I say contenders list, I don't mean the horses you finally chose, but rather your very first shortlist. We are going to work our way back to find where these horses are being dropped as possibilities. To do that we start by checking they were on our first shortlist to begin with.
I hope that makes it clearer, but please let me know if it needs more explanation.