My answers to the 4 most important questions to be profitable
@silviodante99 thank you very much for sharing this. Would you mind doing a detailed analysis of one race here so I can follow it along?
I analysed the 03 November 23:50 race at Aldermist.
I am still just placing dutch bets.
I got my contenders by running the MC simulator (taking out the OR/Weight) and then taking the resulting top 4, included horses in the PR overlay that were marked as potentional and the top horse in the market.
I then looked over the horses previous form to see if it had performed well over similar conditions.
The final check is how well the horse scores on 4 factors; 5278 CFR, SHORAVSTA, GLR10 and ACPFPCL.
The contenders I was left with were Foreign Legion, Sugar Plum Fairy, Monarch Maid and Le Manege Enchante.
Foreign Legion had performed over similar conditions apart from the 6 furlong distance and a slight concern with the ground, having not performed well on SS but had on SD. It was 3rd in 5278 CFR, top of the SHORAVSTA, 3rd in GLR10 with the ACPFCL score not very good. With all that considered I was reluctant to discount it so checked the MC simulator results and it was top by a large margin which ment I was happy to include it as a bet.
Sugar Plum Fairy has not perfomed well over similar conditions with the GLR10 and ACPFPCL factors not good. Removed this as a contender.
Le Manege Enchante has been competitive over similar conditions as todays race but there could be a problem with the ground as it has not performed well SS ground. Although in the in running comments of the 02/05/20 at Chelmsford, which was SS over 6 furlongs, said the horse was held up in midfield. With this in mind it could have done better that finishing 2.45 furlongs behind winner if it had not been held up and therefore been competitive. After going over the 4 factors which were all at least satisfactory apart from the ACPFPCL score, I kept it as one of my bets.
Monarch Maid has performed over similar conditions with the weight not looking to be a problem either. When looking at the 4 factors shows that the horse score well on the 5278 and GLR10 but not on SHORAVSTA and ACPFPCL. This warrants it being in one of the dutch bets.
I paced a dutch bet on Foreign Legion, Le Manege Enchante and Monarch Maid
Result- Sugar Plum Fairy 1st
After looking back over Sugar Plum Fairy I can see that I should have not discounted the horse because it had not been competitve over 6f. It had won over a distance of 5f 160y which on reflection was close enough to 6 furlongs to include it on similar distance. In the horses history 4/10/20 at Lingfield it finished within 2.7 furlongs of winner. Usually not close enough to deem competitive in a sprint race but the in running comments said it was held up, so could have considered it in terms of ground although it was on SD and not SS. Having said that weight could have been a problem. It was 3rd in MC simulator, well behind 1st. The PFP and ACPFPCL scores on the horses race card page were not steadily increasing of late. Unsure if I was right not to include it given what I knew at the time of selection.
@silviodante99 I have gone through this race using your analysis side-by-side and thought your analysis was very good. I would also not have included this runner, the DSLGR was also bad. I think the bet structure looked good, a dutch bet would have yielded a 673% return. Out of the three horses, two placed.
Can we do another one please?
Aldermist 11 November 2020 19:50
I got my contenders using the same method as in my previous post. MC Sim top 4, PR odds overlay contenders and top horse in market.
Condenders; Instisaab, Gracious John, Blue De Vega, Atletico, Doctor Sardonicus
Instisaab has ran well over similar conditions apart from over a similar distance. It scored well on 3 out of the 4 factors, scoring much higher than the rest in SHORAVSTD and ACPFPCL. It was also comfortably top of the MC simulator so I will include it as a selection.
Gracious John has been competitive over similar conditions with similar weight and scored satisfactorily on GRL10 and well on ACPFPCL, not so well on the other factors. Good enough to have a chance.
Atletico has won on SD over 5 furlongs but not in todays class and nothing in the 4 factors I looked at suggested I needed to include it.
Blue De Vega has performed well on yielding ground but not over todays distance. When it ran on SD it was not in todays class and it was over two years ago. It scored fairly well on the 4 factors but again this was not enough.
Doctor Sardonicus has won on todays ground conditions and over the 5 furlong distance carrying similar weight for more prize money. Apart from being bottom on the SHORAVSTD factor, nothing else suggested I should not include it.
The selections I dutched were Instisaab, Gracious John and Doctor Sardonicus
Result - Final Venture 1st (Gracious John 2nd)
Final Venture was not one of my contenders, it had not perfromed on SD anyway and looking at the 4 factors I analyse nothing really jumped out. On to the next race 😀.
Another good analysis. If you are happy to mix things up a bit I think we should look at two areas.
1) Race selection
2) Bet structure
How are you currently selecting your races to analyse?
Are you happy to track doing alternative bets to dutch betting?
I am currently just betting on all weather sprint races. I only chose that because I thought it would be an easier place to start. I would be willing to expand this to other race types. In all honestly I am sometimes waiting for an AW sprint to come along to analyse.
I am open to other types of bets than just Dutch bets.
Assuming your focus is on sprint races up to 6 furlongs, let's expand this to 7 furlongs but be aware we have a bit more emphasis on stamina in the 7 furlong, and like to see evidence the horse has it in their history.
I think we should look at 80/20 bets instead of dutch bets for the moment, and aim to pick just one or two in a race, more than two then move on. In terms of figuring out place odds at Aldermist, we can use a rough calculation of a quarter for the moment to get a feel for it.