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New AW Speed RACE Card  


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(@zakari)
New Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 4
Topic starter  

Hi Michael and everyone.

I am working on a new race card type, been testing for a couple of weeks using different ones, but tonight settled on something I was keen to sahre, expecially as it was so succesful today. Tonight I had a very strong showing at Chelmsford, but would like to start testing my race card and formulate a proper strategy.

I have set up my race card like this:

  1. Look at Project Speed in todays race type – SHORPRO
  2. Best speed rating on todays race type – SHORBES
  3. Speed rating in last race with adjusted - SPDFIGLRADJ
  4. Speed rating in last race adjusted with todays weight - RNKSPDFIGLR
  5. Best speed rating in last 45 days - RANKSHORBE45
  6. AVG SPEED rating from best runners in last 45 days from races entered – SHORBEAV45 – not sure how I using this effectively as I don’t know really what it’s telling me. Trying to view how the horse stacks up against other rivals and, so if they only came 4th but were much faster they are still in with good chance.

Consider

  1. Odds of BF win market 4-1 or more
  2. Less than 29-1 in win market
  3. Past races to confirm ability – speed ratings and ground conditions. I am using the speed graphs heavily and want to see improvement in speed recently,  top speed is one of the highest. Review course speed (Not always helpful as some horse just dont have a rating)
  4. Jockey and Trainer SR – consider
  5. CD winner - consider
  6. Race Pace and what horse do well (presser, leader etc.)

Lets consider Chelmsford 4pm - 3rd December 2020

SHOPRO - Kentucky Kingdom - highest rating

SHORBES - 1. Luna Deity - 2. Murabeeq  3.Kentucky 

SPDFIGLRADJ - Kentucky

RNKSPDFIGLR - Kentucky

RANKSHORBE45 - Kentucky

RANKBEAV45 - Storminin (Not sure what this actually telling me, see above)

CDWINS - Murabeeq

JOCKEY/TRAINER SR - Murabeeq

I am looking for odds over 4 to make it worthwhile and odds under 25.

Murabeeq going off at 40-1 knock him out.

Kentucky went off at 4-1 and Luna Deity went off at 20-1.

I had win on Kentuckly and place on Luna. They did come 1 and 2 in the order above.

NEXT RACE: 4.30pm BAD Attitude - Win 3.25 Prosili was second choice and odds were too low (Joint fav)

NEXT RACE: 5pm Choices were Ariji (5-2f) Yuften (16-1), Inclyne 12-1 but because of no clear winner in stats and the fact there was a very strong horse in race Power of States - did not pick the race. Result was Power of States, Arji, Inclyne, Yuften 5th.

NEXT RACE: 5.30pm Choices were: Brunels Boys (5/4F), High Class Affair 28-1 Butcher of Stockholm 14-1, Arlos Sunshine 50-1. Ultimately pick Arlo's sushine at 50-1 as it was such a good price for horse that was coming in the picks high, it came in 6th but went off at 10-1 in the end. I didnt cash out, no chance to do it, but should of laid it for sure! I didnt!!

NEXT RACE: 6pm  - Nigel Nott, Pop Dancer, Lord Riddiford were picks but was very close and hard to choose between them. Could of dutched them but didn't 1. Nigel Nott, 7/2, 2. Lomu 100/30F, 3. Lord Riddiford, 9/2, 4th Pop Dancer 7/2.

Next race - Winner Indian Pursuit 4-1

Next race - Winner Highfield Princess 4-1.

Obviously I am chuffed to bits and thinking I am a genius now, but honestly thats obviousy just one night and this strategy needs much more data. 

So I would like to ask a few things:

1. How do to ultilise export data from previous races to see how it stacks up. i.e. Actually see the edge I have.

2. Then figure out a stronger weighting on my actual race card to help the monte carlo simulator get tighter on the picks. Not sure I consider all ratings worthy of the same weighting. Is this even how the MC simulator works.

3. The AVG Speed rating seems like a good rating but just not sure how to use it. I think I am trying to look at previous races a horse may have run in a high class field not necessarily knock it out if it was last for example but raced well. Potentially my other ratings do that, but something is niggling me there.

4. I have no staking plan at all, I am just going on feel for each race, not a good idea - but based on what I have told you what do you think I should be reviewing. I guess once I know my losing streak potential, I might have a stronger idea of what that might look like.

5. I think some of the ratings above are telling me very similar bits of information and thus just because of one strong day, its seems obvious that I should have more knock out criterias. 

I am a total newbie, so just need to start to look at things I am missing or not even considering. Feel good about picking horses, very green on everything else.

Also it takes me about about 10 minutes to think through each race which seems like a long time when you are looking through many races.

Finally, I feel like I want to bet on every race which feels dangrous, I know I didn't based on some of the facts, but any tips on being disciplined?

 

Thank you,

K


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(@zakari)
New Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 4
Topic starter  

I had similar results yesterday with a strong showing, although I do feel the higher the competition the harder it is getting to pick, with a number of horses appearing very strong. It still turned up several winners from the AW races. Saturday is really difficult given the amount of CD and winners and strong horses. I am finding my reliance on the speed graphs has increased and I am looking at the highest speed a horse has achieved all time and looking to see if there recent form denotes improvement to previous levels.


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(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2658
 

@zakari thank you very much for the sharing, and congratulations on the results 🙂

Let me confirm a few things which will hopefully help...

Posted by: @zakari

 

  • Speed rating in last race with adjusted - SPDFIGLRADJ
  • Speed rating in last race adjusted with todays weight - RNKSPDFIGLR

 

The SPDFIGLRADJ is the speed figure from last race adjusted for todays weight. The RNKSPDFIGLR is the rank, based on speed figure, that the horse had in its last race, please note that the highest speed rating isn't necessarily the winner.

Posted by: @zakari

SHORBEAV45 – not sure how I using this effectively as I don’t know really what it’s telling me.

This rating tells you the average speed rating of the best runners that raced against the horse you are looking at in the last 45 days. In other words, it gives you an idea of the level of competition it was facing based on speed.

Posted by: @zakari

1. How do to ultilise export data from previous races to see how it stacks up. i.e. Actually see the edge I have.

You can export the data from your dashboard using the button on the top right. You cans how to do this in video #4 at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/training/#tve-jump-174b2a6d547

Posted by: @zakari

2. Then figure out a stronger weighting on my actual race card to help the monte carlo simulator get tighter on the picks. Not sure I consider all ratings worthy of the same weighting. Is this even how the MC simulator works.

This is sort of how the MC simulator works 🙂 Rather than weighting we have what is known as variance. By default this variance is 15%, which means that if a horse has a rating of 100, during the simulation it could score anywhere from 85 to 115 on each simulation. If you are very confident in a particular ratings score you can make this narrower, if you are less confident you can make this bigger. Generally I'd recommend less than 10 ratings on a race card using this, which is fine with your setup. Having multiple ratings which are measuring similar things can cause a bias here, which is something to be aware of. I'd stick to just one or two from a category, e..g maybe start with just one or two of the speed ratings and test to see which combination is most effective.

(if you'd like to see the ability to add weighting to ratings in the MC simulator in the future, please put a request at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/community/what-would-you-like-to-see/)

Posted by: @zakari

3. The AVG Speed rating seems like a good rating but just not sure how to use it. I think I am trying to look at previous races a horse may have run in a high class field not necessarily knock it out if it was last for example but raced well. Potentially my other ratings do that, but something is niggling me there.

Hopefully I answered this above, but if you have any more questions please let me know 🙂

Posted by: @zakari

4. I have no staking plan at all, I am just going on feel for each race, not a good idea - but based on what I have told you what do you think I should be reviewing. I guess once I know my losing streak potential, I might have a stronger idea of what that might look like.

Knowing your losing streak potential is important. If you want to play it safe then you should follow this one https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/how-staking-will-increase-your-profit/ and set your edge to 1% or 1.5%, be aware that this will feel like you are betting very conservatively with very small percentages of your bankroll, the method is designed to minimise the risk of bankruptcy and maximise to bankroll growth. If you find it's too small, you can increase it, but every increase will make a significant increase to your risk of losing the bankroll. When you have an idea of your strike rate, you can calculate your losing streak from https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/horse-racing-bankrolls-the-1-biggest-mistake/ and then multiple it by a minimum of 5 for flat staking bankroll, or more ideally 10 if you want to be safer.

Posted by: @zakari

Also it takes me about about 10 minutes to think through each race which seems like a long time when you are looking through many races.

This is not that long, you're doing well. Don't focus on trying to speed up the analysis, focus on making sure you analysis is as good as it can be, that means high returns. Trying to speed up analysis will usually break this and it's not worth it. You may get faster at it in time, but don't make that a focus.

Posted by: @zakari

Finally, I feel like I want to bet on every race which feels dangrous, I know I didn't based on some of the facts, but any tips on being disciplined?

This is very dangerous. As above, don't speed up your analysis to try and do this. Set yourself a time limit and go through as many races as you have time for, one day it may be 6 another day it may be three depending on the complexity, don't worry about it, there's always another day, and every day there are lots of races. There's no rush or need to bet on more. If you feel yourself rushing, walk away and wait for at least 30 minutes or longer.

Posted by: @zakari

I am finding my reliance on the speed graphs has increased

🙂 they are very powerful, the more you get into them the more accurate you will find your usage of them. Again, don't try and rush through them.

Follow the Race Advisor on social media on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Instagram. You can also find my personal accounts on Instagram and Facebook
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(@zakari)
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Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 4
Topic starter  

Thank you, thats very helpful. Today produced a couple of fantastic winners, particularly Zapper Cass at Wolverhampton that came in at 21-1. It met all of the criteria that I have laid out and although I felt nervous about betting on 21-1 horse, the stats didn't lie even in a very competitive field. I realise its not always going to be this way which is why your notes back to me are very helpful. Its safe to say I have now paid for my intial investment in Race Advisor, but I continue to be hungry to figure out new ways of using the software. May I just ask based on your experience what other ratings do you recommend when focusing on shorter races?

Finally I have managed to export the data, but given I am not a whizz with excel, I am finding it difficult to apply my race card features to the data to figure the baseline winning percentages. Do you have any videos on working with exported data?

I just want to take the time to thank you Michael for responding quickly, it is appreciated.


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(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2658
 

Great stuff 🙂

I generally don't add more ratings if what I'm using is working. It's very easy to turn something that's working and break it. However, for shorter races I focus predominantly on speed first, and pace second.

I don't have any videos on working with exported data, but it is something I have made a note to do .

Next week our system builder will be going to beta testers, this should be with them for a week and then I'm hoping to release the system builder to all members, this will make the manipulation of data much easier!

Follow the Race Advisor on social media on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Instagram. You can also find my personal accounts on Instagram and Facebook
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(@zakari)
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Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 4
Topic starter  

@mikeywilding - great this sounds like a very exciting and positive step. I will continue to owrk on my strategy with these races and share any further thoughts or changes to the card. Appreciate the feedback.


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(@balimaar)
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Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 98
 
Posted by: @zakari

Finally, I feel like I want to bet on every race which feels dangrous, I know I didn't based on some of the facts, but any tips on being disciplined?

For me as soon as I am staring at a group 3-4 close contenders and my brain starts looking for anything miniscule to split them apart... that's when I stop. Get up from my desk and go outside for a breath of fresh air. Then i come back and sit down and have one last look and if nothing shows itself that I was missing before I disregard the race and move on.

Also if I find myself even coming close to thinking "gee I have not made a selection in quite a few races that I've looked at" I disregard the race, get up and walk away for some fresh air as that usually happens after I've spent 1hr+ hard at work.

I guess in short... if you find yourself ever at all forcing a selection. Stop. Get up. Do something else for like 10 minutes, come back, disregard the race and move on to the next.


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(@paceandbounce)
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Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 22
 

Good to catch up - very informative .I have always felt that too much analysis leads to paralysis though. F or what it is worth I always look at last 6 races and to qualify for me horse must have won 1 race plus 3 placed ( 4th counts ). That is my starting point then I add my few filters


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