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(@paul-harvey)
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Joined: 4 years ago
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29/08/2020 12:05 pm  

Hello to my first tread topic i have been a silent member for a couple of years now i am ready to get serious and profitable now that my life work balance i where i would like it. i did join briefly about 6-8 months ago but not have a sufficient bank of cash so i left and waited until i was ready i now  have a bank £1000 pounds. i could do more but that would mean dipping into my emergency cash reserve.

so down to work my 4 answers are

1. What type of bet do you prefer? Back, Lay, Place, Each Way, Dutch, 80/20 etc.

Answer: in preference Back, Place, Each-way and lay.

 

2. How much time do you have available on days you bet to find selections?

Answer: 1 hour + Some commuting time on the train .

 

3. After how much time in a downswing do you start to become uncomfortable?

Answer either 6 weeks, 20 selection's or 1/2 my bank roll.

 

4. How many selections do you like, roughly, in a day?

Answer 2-5+ depending on the type of bet and system using at the time.


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(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2394
31/08/2020 11:02 am  

Hi @paul-harvey and great to have you here and part of the community again 🙂

Posted by: @paul-harvey

could do more but that would mean dipping into my emergency cash reserve.

Please don't do this, only ever bet with what you can afford to lose. 

Okay, down to your answers to the questions...

Being able to go for up to 20 losing bets in a row is excellent, and opens up a lot of possibilities. This means aiming for a strike rate of 35% or higher, although it's generally better to go higher to start with.

With regards to the half bankroll drop, I completely understand this and feel the same way, but please make sure you read this blog https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/horse-racing-bankrolls-the-1-biggest-mistake/ and be aware that if you have a £1000 bankroll, but will be uncomfortable when it hits £500, we should plan your stake size based on a £500 bankroll, and grow it from there, otherwise we will always be over-staking you bankroll for your personal comfort.

As you have already been around racing for a while, do you have a preference for a particular type of racing, such as sprints, All Weather, jumps etc.?

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(@paul-harvey)
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31/08/2020 7:57 pm  

Hi Michael

thank you for your feedback on the first point duly noted i think i was being a but fool hardy and not thinking through my actions. but the one thing i do not want to do is leave it sitting doing nothing and being eaten away by inflation etc. 

On to QA 1 and 2 go together although i have learnt that losing runs are inevitable i tend to push the boundaries when things are going well and pull back or even stop when things are going bad. rather than keep a steady methodical approach with correct strategy and proper staking 

Q3 Bankroll: Back in 2017 I spent the summer with a bank roll which i manged to treble over 3 months but the following 2 months i lost most of the profit and called it quits as at that point as my life situation changed and it has taken me to this point to get back to this point. Although if i am under no pressure financially i will more than happy with an increasing stake as long i have the bank to back it up.  

 


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(@paul-harvey)
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31/08/2020 8:21 pm  

Q4 My preferences are  summer flat handicap races class b and c middle distance 7f- 1m5f

All weather sprints throughout the year and chase handicaps in winter.


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(@mikeywilding)
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01/09/2020 12:14 pm  
Posted by: @paul-harvey

i do not want to do is leave it sitting doing nothing and being eaten away by inflation etc. 

For what it's worth, I wouldn't worry about this too much at the moment, it will take a long time for it to be eaten away, it certainly shouldn't make you want to put more into a betting bankroll until you are 100% comfortable.

Posted by: @paul-harvey

On to QA 1 and 2 go together although i have learnt that losing runs are inevitable i tend to push the boundaries when things are going well and pull back or even stop when things are going bad. rather than keep a steady methodical approach with correct strategy and proper staking 

It's great that you've recognised this. Correct strategy and staking is critical, if you pull back and stop when things are going badly then you weren't ever truly comfortable with the method you were using. You must be prepared to lose the entire bankroll, during bad streaks we can use a number of metrics to determine if it's within statistical likelihood, and unless it goes outside of these by a fair margin there's nothing to say the strategy isn't working properly and the swing is just within the normal swing of things. 

Posted by: @paul-harvey

Q3 Bankroll: Back in 2017 I spent the summer with a bank roll which i manged to treble over 3 months but the following 2 months i lost most of the profit and called it quits

Thank you very much for sharing this, and you bring up a very good point. Whenever your bankroll reaches a new high point, take out 30% of the profit between the last high point and the new high point. It doesn't matter if it's just a few pennies, still take them out, and then start again with the new bankroll. This means you are always paying yourself something for your time spent. It would also mean that in the situation you mentioned above, you would have taken out at least your initial bankroll in that first three months, and possibly more than it, so when you hit the downswing it doesn't hit as hard emotionally. Most bettors never take out any profit because they're trying to grow a huge bankroll, this is very bad psychologically, always take out a percentage of profits as you go. The same you would with any business.

Since we are getting close(ish) to a change in season, it makes sense to start with a focus on All Weather sprints. They also happen to be my favourite 😀

I define a sprint as a race up to around 6 furlongs, but not including 7 furlong races.

These are also very good to start with as it limits the number of races to analyse each day nicely, as well as having the least moving parts. 

I recommend we use the Speed Graphs strategy at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/instant-strategies/ as your first foundational strategy. Although this video is focused on finding horses to lay, we can use it in exactly the same way for any bet type. Take a watch of it and let me know if you like the feel of it, and come back with any questions, if you do we can move forwards from there, if not we can look at another foundational strategy to use.

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(@paul-harvey)
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04/09/2020 8:51 pm  

Hi Michael 

Thank you for your thoughts and wisdom after doing a lot of watching, reviewing and learning. I tried your suggestion and followed your instructions, just unfortunately i did not put my selections and thought process up before the race. The race in question was 20:20 at kempton the speed graph and PR Odds gave Clever Candy, and villians Voice a clear lead. This was a dummy run to put into practise what i have learnt and no money was involved. 

So onto tomorrow  and i will try put my selections up for scrutiny and advise. 


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(@mikeywilding)
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07/09/2020 10:33 am  

@paul-harvey I hope that it started well over the weekend if you had some time to start practicing it.

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(@paul-harvey)
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07/09/2020 6:57 pm  

I did not do any actual practicing over the weekend spent time getting my literal "house" in order and putting a action plan together. one thing I have learnt over the last few years is to do a daily to do  list, as I was finding that time disappearing and I is was not getting anything done . But I have started using the Aldermist, as my main weak point at the moment is form reading and second guessing. 


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(@mikeywilding)
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08/09/2020 1:09 am  

@paul-harvey I have a daily list as well, I use a sticky note and physically cross each item off as I do it 🙂

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(@paul-harvey)
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11/09/2020 10:18 am  

Well it all starts today after Michael's E-mail with the new foundation strategies i have chosen No 5, As it a nice match to my own strategies, aims and goals. My thought process is very logical as an electronic engineer you also have to a lot investigation and also think out side the box.

My selections 

No selections today as there is no all weather racing . 


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(@mikeywilding)
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11/09/2020 6:16 pm  

Looking forward to it 🙂

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(@paul-harvey)
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12/09/2020 9:32 am  

My selections for today Saturday 12th September

No selections today- No All weather racing . 


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(@paul-harvey)
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13/09/2020 2:09 pm  

plenty of selections today after last 2 days of no aw racing 

My selections are 

Chelmsford 14:55 Raucous back, 15:25 Sandaah and Aljari back Dutch bet, 15:55 Nat Love back, 16:25 Bolt and Brown Place.

Wolverhampton 13:55 Final Attack back, 15:35 Jigs Princess Place bet, 


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