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Paul Lines
(@paulieputerfingers)
Active Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 11
28/06/2020 12:09 am  

 

Hi Michael, great site! 

​1) What type of bet do you prefer? 

I prefer 20/80 betting. 

​2) How much time do you have available on days you bet to find selections?

I usually prefer to find selections the evening before racing, usually a couple of hours every evening. 

​3) After how much time in a downswing do you start to become uncomfortable?

Usually about 6 to 10 losses in a row starts to make me uncomfortable. 

​4) How many selections do you like, roughly, in a day

Genuinely dont mind how many as long as they are quality selections but probably no more than 6.

 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
29/06/2020 10:40 am  

Hi @paulieputerfingers welcome to the community 🙂

A man after my own heart with the 20/80 betting!

A couple of hours each evening is a great amount of time. With a losing streak of 6 to 10 in a row means we need to be aiming for a 70% strike rate. That would mean you could expect a losing streak of 6 two or three times over the course of a year. Remember that downswings will also happen when you have a losing streak, followed by a winner, followed by another losing streak etc.

I think that the strategy that will suit you best for your foundation approach is a combination of VDW Strategy and the Horse Histories Strategy. Please could you watch the two videos at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/instant-strategies/ and let me know your thoughts on whether you like the sound of these two approaches combined.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Paul Lines
(@paulieputerfingers)
Active Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 11
29/06/2020 10:46 pm  

Hi Michael,

 

After watching your Facebook Live this evening on VDW strategy I thought that looked more up my street and combining with looking at horses history seems a sensible approach. I will endeavor to use this going forward.

 

I had a little look for tomorrow:

 

14.15 Musselburgh Beignet

15.00 Doncaster Notforalongtime

17.15 Leicester Dahik

17.45 Leicester Tawaafoq


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
30/06/2020 9:37 am  

@paulieputerfingers excellent, I'll look forward to following along. Please keep notes on your reasoning behind the selections with your results, then when we've got enough selections we can take a look at the performance and use those notes to adapt it to improve it if necessary.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Paul Lines
(@paulieputerfingers)
Active Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 11
30/06/2020 7:45 pm  

Results today:

 

14.15 Musselburgh Beignet up

15.00 Doncaster Notforalongtime 1st 16.96 win 4.42 place 😎 

17.15 Leicester Dahik 4th

17.45 Leicester Tawaafoq up

 

Not great for strike rate but the winner at Doncaster made up for it! Didn't realise Beignet was going off at such a high price, that would probably have put me off.


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Paul Lines
(@paulieputerfingers)
Active Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 11
30/06/2020 9:13 pm  

For tomorrow:

All in top 4 for VDW

12.45 MUSSELBURGH PRIMOS COMET-

Won in similar conditions, dslgr only 27
Possible danger - Royal Brave
Negatives - odds may be too low

14.00 TIPPERARY KILGANER QUEEN

Won in similar conditions
Negatives - high dslgr
pr odds indicate elimination

14.50 MUSSELBURGH ELUSIVE HEIGHTS

Won in similar conditions, dslgr acceptable

Negatives - odds may be too low, win was 4 years ago but did have recent good race over slightly shorter distance

15.40 SOUTHWELL ST GALLEN

Won in similar conditions, low dslgr
Possible danger - Carntop (also won in similar conditions but high dslgr)

20.15 KEMPTON BLAME IT ON SALLY

Won in similar conditions, good jockey and trainer
Negatives - high dslgr

 

Shortlisted bets:

14.50 MUSSELBURGH ELUSIVE HEIGHTS

15.40 SOUTHWELL ST GALLEN

20.15 KEMPTON BLAME IT ON SALLY

 

 

 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
01/07/2020 9:12 am  

@paulieputerfingers excellent summary of your analysis, thank you 🙂

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Paul Lines
(@paulieputerfingers)
Active Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 11
01/07/2020 7:20 pm  

Results:

14.50 MUSSELBURGH ELUSIVE HEIGHTS up

15.40 SOUTHWELL ST GALLEN 1st 4.1 Win 1.79 Place 😎 

20.15 KEMPTON BLAME IT ON SALLY Non runner

 

Still making a profit!


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Paul Lines
(@paulieputerfingers)
Active Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 11
01/07/2020 8:22 pm  

Thursday analysis:

 

14.10 BATH AWSAAF

WON IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS
2ND ON MONTECARLO
GOOD SPEED FIGURE
GOOD JOCKEY AND TRAINER

15.10 BATH GREY GALLEON

WON IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS
GOOD SPEED FIGURE
2ND ON MONTECARLO
MIDPACK HORSE IN FAST RACE
GOOD DSLGR
GOOD 5278 CFR RATING

15.40 BATH BOOM THE GROOM

WON IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS
GOOD 5278 CFR RATING
LEADER IN TRUE RUN RACE
3RD ON MONTECARLO
NEGATIVE - DSLGR A LITTLE HIGH
GOOD SPEED FIGURE

17.50 BATH GENERAL BROOK

WON IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS
GOOD 5278 CFR RATING
SOLE LEADER IN FAST RUN RACE
GOOD SPEED FIGURE
NEGATIVES - DSLGR & STRONG FAVOURITE

 

ACTUAL BETS

14.10 BATH AWSAAF WIN BET ONLY

15.10 BATH GREY GALLEON 20/80

15.40 BATH BOOM THE GROOM 20/80

17.50 BATH GENERAL BROOK 20/80


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
02/07/2020 11:44 am  
Posted by: @paulieputerfingers

Still making a profit!

👏

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Paul Lines
(@paulieputerfingers)
Active Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 11
02/07/2020 7:38 pm  

Results:

14.10 BATH AWSAAF WIN BET ONLY up

15.10 BATH GREY GALLEON 20/80 1st 3.78 Place 1.67 😎 

15.40 BATH BOOM THE GROOM 20/80 4th

17.50 BATH GENERAL BROOK 20/80 2nd Place 1.69 😎 


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Paul Lines
(@paulieputerfingers)
Active Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 11
02/07/2020 9:12 pm  

Fridays:

14.30 HAYDOCK ARCTIC VEGA 20/80

PR POTENTIAL
CLOSER IN SLOW RACE
GOOD REYNOLD RATING
TOP ON MONTECARLO
GOOD SPEED RATING
HIGH 5278 CFR RATING

15.30 HAYDOCK GABRIEL THE TIGER 20/80

STRONG LEADER IN FAST RACE
GOOD REYNOLD RATING
PR POTENTIAL
POSSIBLE DANGER - ZIP

17.50 HAMILTON LE CHIFFRE WIN BET

WON IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS
GOOD PR ODDS
HIGH 5278 CFR RATING
HIGH PFP
LOW DSLGR
TOP ON MONTECARLO

18.00 WOLVERHAMPTON STREET POET 20/80

GOOD RACE IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS
HIGH MONTECARLO
GOOD SPEED RATING
EARLY PRESSER IN FAST RACE
GOOD SPEED RATING

19.00 WOLVERHAMPTON KATHS LUSTRE 20/80

TOP MONTECARLO
GOOD REYNOLD RATING
WON IN SIMIALR CONDITIONS
MID PACK HORSE IN FAST RACE
LOW DSLGR
GOOD SPEED PROFILE

19.45 NAVAN PATRICK SARSFIELD WIN BET

GOOD RACE IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS
LOW DSLGR
HIGH ON MONTECARLO

 

 


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Paul Lines
(@paulieputerfingers)
Active Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 11
04/07/2020 10:27 am  

14.30 HAYDOCK ARCTIC VEGA UP
15.30 HAYDOCK GABRIEL THE TIGER UP
17.50 HAMILTON LE CHIFFRE 1ST 2.68
18.00 WOLVERHAMPTON STREET POET UP
19.00 WOLVERHAMPTON KATHS LUSTRE UP
19.45 NAVAN PATRICK SARSFIELD 1ST 2.3


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Paul Lines
(@paulieputerfingers)
Active Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 11
04/07/2020 10:00 pm  

Sundays:

 

13.15 SANDOWN RISK OF THUNDER
13.50 SANDOWN LIBERTY BEACH
14.40 HAYDOCK MANUELA DE VEGA
15.00 SANDOWN DARK VISION
15.50 HAYDOCK LINCOLN PARK
16.00 DONCASTER COUNT D'ORSAY
16.35 SANDOWN TULIP FIELDS


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
06/07/2020 11:54 am  

@paulieputerfingers I'm missing your summary of reasoning 🙂

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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