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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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18/06/2020 12:39 am  

@future I have gone through the missing 5278 CFR for the 17th, and can confirm that there is not enough of the data we need to calculate them accurately for those races, which is why they're not showing.

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steve arnold
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18/06/2020 7:02 am  

thanks for checking michael , the "new" feature should help to show if not enough data for ratings


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steve arnold
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18/06/2020 7:28 am  

the races i "like" are the 4yo+ handicaps where there is more form to go on so i'm surprised that there isn't enough data for some of them , the first one i looked at today the 2.05 newmarket is again showing no 5278 ratings , when making a race card to test out i like to see horses in the top 4 of everything if possible , with no 5278 i can't tell .


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steve arnold
(@future)
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18/06/2020 9:27 am  

also did you check what i put up about the DSLGR 


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Michael Wilding
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18/06/2020 10:00 am  
Posted by: @future

also did you check what i put up about the DSLGR 

Yes, that should now be resolved. 

Posted by: @future

the races i "like" are the 4yo+ handicaps where there is more form to go on so i'm surprised that there isn't enough data for some of them , the first one i looked at today the 2.05 newmarket is again showing no 5278 ratings , when making a race card to test out i like to see horses in the top 4 of everything if possible , with no 5278 i can't tell .

It's to do with connection data and their performances on similar conditions. We need them to have performed a certain amount of times over similar conditions, if they haven't we can't calculating the rating because it loses accuracy.

To get an idea of strongest in these races quickly, you can also sort by PR Odds and/or Monte Carlo simulation.

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steve arnold
(@future)
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18/06/2020 10:29 am  

thanks for looking at everything for us


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steve arnold
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22/06/2020 12:21 pm  

michael can you please help me understand something .

when looking at pace and as an example todays 3.10 race at ayr .

when sorting by running style we see 3 leaders , raspberry , b fifty two and mr wagyu .

then when sorting by leader only two of those are at the top with raspberry 5th in order .

so could you explain why ?


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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22/06/2020 8:42 pm  

@future when we estimate a running style of a horse, that's the style we think the horse has, and generally prefers. However, that doesn't mean the horse is going to be able to run to that pace preference in the current race. Where it's likely to be in the current race will also depend on the other runners in the race. In this example, because the pace was much stronger for other horses, it's very unlikely that Raspberry was going to be a leader.

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steve arnold
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22/06/2020 9:09 pm  

many thanks for the explanation michael .

enjoying my time on here , i've been playing around with a few different race cards but without the consistency i was looking for , however had my best day trying out another one today doing 20/80 bets and one dutch , 10 out of 15 winning races for a profit on the day of £130 .

i will definately be joining up after my free trial now .

it's a nice site with lots going on to look at with the blogs , strategies , videos  , forum etc plus your help and knowledge , so thanks .


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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23/06/2020 11:00 am  

@future great to hear. If you have any other questions please do let me know. If you'd like me to help further with your strategy then fire away. The consistency is what takes the longest, but the more you do what you're doing the quicker it will come 🙂

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steve arnold
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25/06/2020 6:39 pm  

ok michael i do need some help please , the last 2 days haven't been very exciting at all , i am doing 20/80 bets but i've only had one winner out of 17 as i write this , thb winners is what makes the 20/80 bet i feel boost the profit up a lot in the long run , with mainly the place part there if the horse does place you don't lose .

i will tell you my strategy , i only look at 4yo+ handicap races ,  what i then look for is from the ratings i use the horse must be in the top 4 of each .

 5 selected ratings used...1013 , 3001 , 3206 , 3006 , 221 .

plus pr odds total score , vdw odds score and monte carlo . , so eight in total .

then i will check betfair odds on the place market , if at least 1.30 then if placed i will get my money back at least .

i will see what you have to say now to help me further .


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steve arnold
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25/06/2020 7:31 pm  

the first day i just used the 5 selected ratings , but i could see that  they weren't enough to go with because i needed to cut down the bets on the day i felt and also use extras filters to further strengthen the selections  i hoped ,  but it hasn't worked out how i wanted it to , i am now around break even after 28 bets , like i say i will see how you can help to get the strike rate up higher .

* just had a winner lol 😀 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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26/06/2020 7:09 am  

@future okay let's dig in 🙂

But first:

i am now around break even after 28 bets

Please don't think this is bad. Being break-even after 28 bets, which I think is about 10 days worth, is a very good start.

Regarding the ratings, I think that we can definitely change some of these around. But before I suggest how, please could you run through a couple of races in here so I can see your thought process on them. Based on that I will make some suggestions on which ratings we may want to swap/drop and also how you may be able to change your thinking on the process of analysis and we can start tweaking to get the higher strike rate and profit.

With 20/80 bets, we want to aim to be profitable with the place portion, this provides us a stable and gentle bankroll growth. Then the wins, when the come, boost that profit up.

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steve arnold
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26/06/2020 9:28 am  

Ok  thanks michael after that last "winner " bet last night i took some time out to see if changing to the top 3 and also the main place market on betfair would make a difference .

in the races i've bet on since monday the 22nd  i looked back at them and it cut down the number of bets a day no end and also from what i can see so far it has made a big difference .

so i have checked the 22nd and 23rd but when i get to the last 2 days the  24th and 25th the figures that i used against my race card are not there so can you please check this out for me ?

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yes i'm still open though to your suggestions of course to changing the ratings around that i can then test out .

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

i will post up a couple of races that i will use for today if there is any later on .


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steve arnold
(@future)
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26/06/2020 10:07 am  

so the strategy step by step ..i first of all look for a 4yo+ handicap , the first one is the 12.15 at doncaster , with the 5 selected races i take them in order going along to see which horses are in the top 3 , which they must be throughout and also with pr odds , vdw and monte carlo .

so rnkpfp we have abel handy , mark's choice and national anthem  , these i will now highlight , next up contender , they are all in the top 3 , 5278 cfr , top 4 for these i use , national anthem is now taken out , dslgr , mark's choice fails , grl10 , abel handy goes , ...so i then look no further , all three have been eliminated so i move on to the next 4yo+ race .

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when i see my next race that comes up with a qualifier i will post it up , then you will have a race for a qualifier and one without .


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