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steve arnold
(@future)
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26/06/2020 2:12 pm  

so the 2.00 race at tipperary was the first one that met the conditions today .

RNKPFP ..2ND

CONTENDER..=1st

5278..1ST

DSLGR..1ST

GRL10..2ND

PRODDS TOTAL SCORE ..3RD

VDW ODDS SCORE ...3RD

MONTE CARLO ...1ST

 


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steve arnold
(@future)
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26/06/2020 2:15 pm  

SELECTION ...SHANROE  ...WON ..BSP 2.94...PLACE .1.52


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steve arnold
(@future)
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26/06/2020 8:25 pm  

two more bets , both losers ! ☹️ 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
27/06/2020 8:19 am  
Posted by: @future

so the strategy step by step ..i first of all look for a 4yo+ handicap , the first one is the 12.15 at doncaster , with the 5 selected races i take them in order going along to see which horses are in the top 3 , which they must be throughout and also with pr odds , vdw and monte carlo .

so rnkpfp we have abel handy , mark's choice and national anthem  , these i will now highlight , next up contender , they are all in the top 3 , 5278 cfr , top 4 for these i use , national anthem is now taken out , dslgr , mark's choice fails , grl10 , abel handy goes , ...so i then look no further , all three have been eliminated so i move on to the next 4yo+ race .

Thank you for this. I have a couple of questions. What ratings are on the race card you are using for the Monte Carlo simulator?

With this process you're going to be getting horses near the front of the market. Which is fine. However, when you are looking at these runners I think that these rules are to cut and dry, and you're missing out on some of the nuances. 

For example, National Anthem was 5th in 5278 CFR. However, the score for Contender was 6 (joint top), the horse had a good race 4 days before, and had run a good race in six of its last ten runs. Combined with market information saying it was strong. To remove the runner because it's ranking was 5 instead of 4 for one factor meant that none of the other information was taken into account. 

Rather than removing the horse, maybe a simple tick method of scoring a horse for each of the factors you are using would be beneficial. For every horse give it a tick if it meets one of your criteria, and give it a cross if it doesn't. At the end of all the criteria add up the ticks, and subtract the crosses to score each horse based on your criteria. This should give you a quick overview of how the runners compare to each other based on that information. I think this will change the way you're looking at the runners and how competitive they're likely to be in a race.

As you know, I always suggest having a quick look at a horse history for your few contenders. National Anthem raced in an almost identical race four days ago and won, as well as having a very good history of winning on sprints.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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steve arnold
(@future)
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27/06/2020 10:29 am  

 

Posted by: @mikeywilding

Thank you for this. I have a couple of questions. What ratings are on the race card you are using for the Monte Carlo simulator?

5 selected ratings used...1013 , 3001 , 3206 , 3006 , 221 

 

Posted by: @mikeywilding

With this process you're going to be getting horses near the front of the market. Which is fine. However, when you are looking at these runners I think that these rules are to cut and dry, and you're missing out on some of the nuances

of course you are right there  , the way i am going about it is just to quick and ready only taking a couples of minutes and just following "exact " rules i have made to save time ,but this is wrong , i do need to look at things differently now .

Posted by: @mikeywilding

For example, National Anthem was 5th in 5278 CFR. However, the score for Contender was 6 (joint top), the horse had a good race 4 days before, and had run a good race in six of its last ten runs. Combined with market information saying it was strong. To remove the runner because it's ranking was 5 instead of 4 for one factor meant that none of the other information was taken into account. 

just looked at this and it all makes perfect sense , i need to look at the bigger picture to then see things that i just have have simply skipped .

Posted by: @mikeywilding

Rather than removing the horse, maybe a simple tick method of scoring a horse for each of the factors you are using would be beneficial. For every horse give it a tick if it meets one of your criteria, and give it a cross if it doesn't. At the end of all the criteria add up the ticks, and subtract the crosses to score each horse based on your criteria. This should give you a quick overview of how the runners compare to each other based on that information. I think this will change the way you're looking at the runners and how competitive they're likely to be in a race.

ok thanks , this is a great suggestion and a new way at looking at things .

i have just done the scores for that 12.15 race and after the way i did it  i had National Anthem , Kick On Kick On and Abel Handy all scoring 5 , then Mark's Choice on 3 , Free Love 1 , Grandfather Tom -1 , and James Watt , Choosey , North Wind all on -3 .

running the monte carlo simulator for further evidence it had all three top scores of 5 at 1, 2 and 3 , so still the same .

i then decided to look at RR , i still kept all 3 in .

i wanted to go further so i chose PRODDS-total score , this time i eliminated Kick On Kick On .

to go further still i wanted to check VDWODDS -SCORE , but they are for some reason all showing zero !?.

so to sum up i'm left with National Anthem and Abel Handy  , obviously now this is the after event but looking at the bsp prices on the race result we have Abel Handy at 2.56 for the win and  1.32 for the place  with National Anthem 4.89 win and 1.73 a place .

so i could have gone a dutch bet on the two , just put the prices up on betfair  back 59.47% winning £6.68 for a £10 stake  , 1.32 place on 20/80 bet would have won £0.50 if just placing , 1.73 place giving £3.72 profit if just placing , so a much better alternative to go with , when dutching anyway i like to use 3 selections minimum personally .

so this is a good example race for me to look at and we all know that they don't always turn out as we would have liked but placing a 20/80 bet on National Anthem would have given us a profit of £13.36 for a £10 stake .

Posted by: @mikeywilding

As you know, I always suggest having a quick look at a horse history for your few contenders. National Anthem raced in an almost identical race four days ago and won, as well as having a very good history of winning on sprints.

yes this is something that i have not been doing but i now will do for the final check before placing a bet , yes you might miss some winners but in the long run it should hopefully weed out many more losers .

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

many thanks michael in taking the time out to put all this up for me to look at  , i have taken my time in reading everything to understand everything and then put my answers up for you .

if there's anything you don't agree with in what i have said then please tell me .

today i will be going through this new way and record the bets i have made .

thanks again and if there's anything else that you feel would help me further then please tell us , i want to make this work for me .

this site has many , many ratings and to be perfectly honest it can look very daunting , but the thing i like about it most is that i know that your always there to help which is very pleasing to know .


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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27/06/2020 8:24 pm  

@future it looks like you understood exactly what I was saying 🙂

to go further still i wanted to check VDWODDS -SCORE , but they are for some reason all showing zero !?.

Not sure about this, I will look into it.

Let's get some more selections and results together using this adapted approach and then look at it again.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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steve arnold
(@future)
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28/06/2020 8:40 am  
Posted by: @mikeywilding

 

Let's get some more selections and results together using this adapted approach and then look at it again.

we'll do michael , thanks .

yesterday i found 3 bets , 2 won and the other one placed  , good start .


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steve arnold
(@future)
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29/06/2020 10:32 am  

6 bets yesterday , 2 wins , 4 non placers , small profit made .

i have made 9 bets in 2 days with a profit shown on 5 of them with 4 winners found and £40.00 made .

however i going to change things around a little because i think that i haven't being doing things properly .

i have only been adding the scores up for the five ratings that i added on my card , i think michael you meant all the factors that i am taking into account , so 8 in total is this correct ?

anyway i will go from here today with that , then just take the top ones and for a final check go to the monte carlo simulator to see if they agree , then look at the horses history , i have noticed sometimes that for some reason all the history isn't there on RA so i have been using AT THE RACES only using selections if they have won on the going and distance , but again i think i'm being too strict on this and maybe go for if they have won or  just been placed close up to the winner on either one then it would suffice , then the final thing for the first time to check the price on betfair and see how i want to place the bet .

please let us know michael if you agree on what i have said .


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
29/06/2020 11:18 am  

@future great, it looks like we're moving in the right direction 🙂

i have only been adding the scores up for the five ratings that i added on my card , i think michael you meant all the factors that i am taking into account , so 8 in total is this correct ?

That's right.

i have noticed sometimes that for some reason all the history isn't there on RA

This is linked to an issue with our previous data supplier. It's something we've corrected in our database upgrade. Currently the ratings are being imported and we'll move over to it as soon as possible 🙂

only using selections if they have won on the going and distance , but again i think i'm being too strict on this and maybe go for if they have won or  just been placed close up to the winner on either one then it would suffice

Consider whether they've had a good race, less than three lengths to winner is a good average to take, under the going and distance. But don't be too specific on these. If the going is good, consider good-soft and good-firm. For the distance go a few hundred yards higher and lower. And if a horse seems to not have done well when you think it should have, check the in-running comments to see if it got blocked, bumped etc.

then the final thing for the first time to check the price on betfair and see how i want to place the bet .

Absolutely, this should always be the last thing.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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steve arnold
(@future)
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Posts: 79
29/06/2020 11:45 am  

thanks very much for the answers michael .

on the subject of the distance and the ground i will note all of what you have said .

on the AT THE RACES site there are some nice features so you can hover over a horse and it then gives out lots of information  , also when you click on the name it then gives dropdowns with even more info , i will use these .

i have been too specific before  but now i will alter my ways and then see how it goes .

before i have only really come up with one or two horses but this way will give me a better chance for more and so i can dutch bet , i do like this way of betting the most as it gives out more horses running for you on your bet , if only one or two i will pick out the one i fancy the most and do a 20 / 80 .


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steve arnold
(@future)
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Posts: 79
29/06/2020 1:40 pm  

first bet of the day just lost , a 3 horse dutch bet , but i felt i should have had the winner because the horse was going really well but the jockey was poor which just makes me think if another couple of ratings should be added , one for the trainer and one for the jockey , what do you think michael or should i leave it as it is ?


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
30/06/2020 9:22 am  

@future I would leave it as it is for now. You shouldn't make decisions based on a single race. You shouldn't really make decisions on results from less than 100 selections, however we do decrease that initially as we're getting the method ready. For now though, stick with what you're doing and run it through a minimum of 25 selections before making any further decisions. If you're finding it hard to stick with it when you get losers, instead of betting live practice on Aldermist (this is exactly what it was built for). That has the double benefit of being a zero-risk training platform where you can get comfortable with your method before taking it live, and because there's a race every 10 minutes, you will be able to practice significantly faster than on live racing, which means you will progress that much faster as well 🙂

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
30/06/2020 9:23 am  

I forgot to mention, if there are any of those features from At The Races you'd like to see on RA Pro, please let us know at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/community/what-would-you-like-to-see/

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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steve arnold
(@future)
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Posts: 79
30/06/2020 10:52 am  
Posted by: @mikeywilding

I would leave it as it is for now. You shouldn't make decisions based on a single race. You shouldn't really make decisions on results from less than 100 selections, however we do decrease that initially as we're getting the method ready. For now though, stick with what you're doing and run it through a minimum of 25 selections before making any further decisions. If you're finding it hard to stick with it when you get losers, instead of betting live practice on Aldermist (this is exactly what it was built for). That has the double benefit of being a zero-risk training platform where you can get comfortable with your method before taking it live, and because there's a race every 10 minutes, you will be able to practice significantly faster than on live racing, which means you will progress that much faster as well 🙂

yes dead right michael it's always a bit annoying to me to see a bad jockey decision , but i suppose they can't all be world class 😉 

so i'm happy to go with the way it is for now , i was in fact having a really good day and enjoying what i am doing for a change but the last couple of races spoilt it a bit ,,, however on the day i made 13 bets and profiting on 6 of them (46% ) , making a profit of £14.94 , lot's more action though and i enjoyed it and looking forward to today .

thanks again 


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steve arnold
(@future)
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30/06/2020 11:25 am  

one other thing i'm doing now is leaving alone irish races as i've never felt very comfortable in betting in them plus going through all the 4yo+ handicap races on busy days is just too much .


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