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WeeWhiskyDram 4-Question Strategy  

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(@weewhiskydram)
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Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 4
04/08/2020 6:48 pm  

1) Backing the win mainly, with the odd EW bet if odds are good enough to warrant it.

​2) up to 2hrs per day available

​3) Variance doesn't bother me too much, I've had losing swings of 60 bets and I am still long term profitable.

​4) I bet every race unless a particular race is extremely poor quality.


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(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2405
06/08/2020 4:53 pm  

Great to see you here @weewhiskydram

I've made this thread for your strategy development, please do also get involved in other threads and feel free to start system tests at the same time 🙂

When you say losing swings, is that downswing or a consecutive streak of 60 losing bets? 

You bet every race, but based on time available I assume that you're finding selections in morning and then betting using a bot or placing at Betfair SP?

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(@weewhiskydram)
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06/08/2020 8:29 pm  

It's a consecutive streak of losing bets, doesn't happen often but when it does I don't get too worried. I tend to look for horses first thing in a morning and bet at bookies BOG price for morning bets, most do 9am onwards. I've also ventured into bot betting which I currently do on Betdaq as I get a lower commission for the time being. Looking forward to seeing how my free trial pans out, really like the look of some of the features 👍 


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(@lordrullah2)
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06/08/2020 10:09 pm  

if I lost 10 on the trot im looking for the nearest tree lol "60" wow thats resilience 


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(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2405
07/08/2020 11:17 am  

It is resilience, and @weewhiskydram is able to stay solid for that long is brilliant, but not many people can, so don't worry if you're only comfortable up to five or six @lordrullah2, that's the reason this is one of the first questions I ask, it's absolutely critical in understanding your personal risk levels, and without understanding that it's impossible to develop a strategy that you'll be comfortable following.

I think @weewhiskydram that a lot of the foundational strategies would work for you. Based on time though, can you check out these three and let me know which one you think would suit you best:

VDW Strategy

Speed Graphs Lay Strategy (but using for back betting not lay)

Improving Runners (that win!)

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(@weewhiskydram)
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07/08/2020 11:39 am  

Thanks Micheal, I will check out all 3 of those and report back.


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(@lordrullah2)
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07/08/2020 5:55 pm  

If I lost 60 on the trot its not so much management as wondering if im in the right game. If I kept losing that badly id quit and try something else.


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(@weewhiskydram)
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07/08/2020 6:08 pm  
Posted by: @lordrullah2

If I lost 60 on the trot its not so much management as wondering if im in the right game. If I kept losing that badly id quit and try something else.

When you're betting 1 or 2 selections every race, 40 - 50 bet swings aren't unheard of, especially if you don't particularly like betting favourites like me. Just need to be bankrolled correctly for it bud.


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(@lordrullah2)
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07/08/2020 6:14 pm  

really wow I'll take your word for it mate. I back them not looking at the price but Id guess most are below 10-1 ,I have bet 50-1 shots and won ,but LLR is more important for me .


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(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2405
07/08/2020 10:13 pm  
Posted by: @weewhiskydram

When you're betting 1 or 2 selections every race, 40 - 50 bet swings aren't unheard of, especially if you don't particularly like betting favourites like me. Just need to be bankrolled correctly for it bud.

Posted by: @lordrullah2

really wow I'll take your word for it mate. I back them not looking at the price but Id guess most are below 10-1 ,I have bet 50-1 shots and won ,but LLR is more important for me .

Very true. That's going to be around 60 bets per day (on average) I would guess. The volume @weewhiskydram is going through a year means that he has the same number of selections it would take most people twenty odd years to have. Which means that he'll hit much bigger losing sequences. For example a 30% strike rate you may hit 20 losers in a row once every thousand bets, but you may hit 30 losers in a row once every 10,000 bets and 40 losers in a row once every 20,000 bets.

Most people only need to worry about hitting 20 losers in a row once or so each year. But @weewhiskydram is placing around 21,000 bets per year, so would hit all of them, and everything in between.

I hope that makes sense 🙂

Follow the Race Advisor on social media on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Instagram. You can also find my personal accounts on Instagram and Facebook
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