Notifications
Clear all

William's 4-Step Strategy  

Page 2 / 2
  RSS

Avatar
(@willxgb)
Active Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 14
13/07/2020 10:05 pm  

Hi there mate, apologies about not being able to provide any analysis sooner! I've had a mix bag of results since we last spoke. My approach of covering a fair few horses per race and on pretty much each race of the day started off well but I think that was purely down to luck and wouldn't be maintainable in the long run! I feel that limited selections would be a good idea for me so I'm interested as towhead you recommend in that department?

Nearly had an absolute mare today! accidentally placed the wrong stake on 'Volcanic Sky' but thankfully it came out! was really worried all my hard work would be undone by a mistake haha.

 

This are the horses that send out for me tomorrow;

 

Ayr 16:40 - Zaison. The speed graph gives a good indication as to what to expect in that department. A low VDW score makes this horse stand out to me as well with the PR odds and Monte Carlo sim being acceptable as well is a positive. The increased distance may be a concern but worth a punt imo. 

 

Ayr 17:15 - Inner Circle / Our Charlie Brown. I'm torn between these two horses. Speed graph shows inner circle to be perhaps the stronger of the 2 in that regard but all other data appears to point towards the later. I also like the way Charlie has appeared to improve apart from the most recent run.Trying not to let the PR chance calculation sway my verdict too much but have a good feeling about Charlie. What do you recommend is the more reliable factor when it comes down to it?

 

 

 


ReplyQuote
Avatar
(@willxgb)
Active Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 14
13/07/2020 10:06 pm  

Is there a systematic approach of what order to check all the different factors in to help my analysis?


ReplyQuote
Avatar
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2394
14/07/2020 1:24 pm  

@willxgb it's far easier to get successful by focusing, and then expanding out from there.

Thank you for the two races, when you have a race like the 17:15 there's not necessarily a better factor. Remember that there are very few races where only a single horse has a chance of winning. It could just be, and is very likely to be, that two horses have pretty similar chances of contending. In. these cases you need to determine whether you think the odds are reasonable on each of them, and if you do then either you need to change the way you structure your bet to account for it, or you need to skip the race. Re-structuring the bet is my personal approach.

Is there a systematic approach of what order to check all the different factors in to help my analysis?

No there isn't. But a technique you can use to help is to score each horse a 1 for a positive point in your analysis, a -1 for a negative point, and a 0 for a point which you don't think adds much value. Do this for each factor. At the end of your analysis you can score the horses to see the strongest.

Don't use this as a pure rating, but as a way to help confirm your decisions and decide how to bet. It can also help to visualise how far apart different horses are. When you combine this with your analysis like above it becomes a powerful combination to make the decisions. Keep the records as well, because we can go back and look at them to find the areas you are strongest in and the ones you are weakest in and adjust the approach accordingly. But be careful not to make changes before there's enough data available to do it based on data and not a hunch.

You can user Aldermist if you want to get through this process faster with zero risk 🙂

Follow the Race Advisor on social media on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Instagram. You can also find my personal accounts on Instagram and Facebook
.


ReplyQuote
Avatar
(@willxgb)
Active Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 14
20/07/2020 10:49 am  

Thank you for the advice! I’ve been using the points based analysis and it does certainly help in narrowing down the selections.  

By biggest issue at present if finding the right amount of bets to place in a given race day as I feel like I’m still going overboard? Think it’s the feeling of looking back at the results and thinking ‘Damn I fancied that horse and didn’t bet on it...’ 

 

do you have any advice or a suitable recommendation that is a good starting point?

 

Thanks! 


ReplyQuote
Avatar
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2394
21/07/2020 9:40 am  
Posted by: @willxgb

By biggest issue at present if finding the right amount of bets to place in a given race day as I feel like I’m still going overboard? Think it’s the feeling of looking back at the results and thinking ‘Damn I fancied that horse and didn’t bet on it...’ 

This is a common concern. The best thing to do here is to stop looking at all races. Choose a set of race conditions that you prefer, if you don't have a preference then choose the ones that are producing the best results for you. 

It terms of going back and thinking that you could have bet on a winner. You need to try and stop that, most of the time you will be able to find a reason to have bet on a horse that won, the only time you need to look back is when a horse you bet on lost, and then you want to look at that horse to see if you could have seen how the race ran from the pre-race data. 

Follow the Race Advisor on social media on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Instagram. You can also find my personal accounts on Instagram and Facebook
.


ReplyQuote
Avatar
(@willxgb)
Active Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 14
06/08/2020 7:18 pm  

Hi Michael,

 

Thanks again for all the Goodwood live streams, they were really good and certainlY something to look forward to each morning! 

I’ve just got a small problem/query. I’m sort of stuck in the same old cycle of;

 

Investing money > slowly but surely get a return > Slowly lose it all > Re-invest.

 

its becoming quite and annoying cycle which I really want to overcome! I think it may be because I’m just doing Win and each-way bets? Would it be best to try out different betting styles? I also tend to use the same stake 90% of the time unless there is one I’m quite confident in. 

Thank you!


ReplyQuote
Avatar
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2394
07/08/2020 11:02 am  

Don't worry,

Posted by: @willxgb

Investing money > slowly but surely get a return > Slowly lose it all > Re-invest.

This is very common.

The first thing to do is always remove 30% of any new bank high. e.g. you go from £100 to £130 one day, take 30% of the £30 out, or £9. It doesn't matter if it's a few pennies, it's the principle and psychology of removing some of your profits every time you have a profit.

Staking the same stake every time is fine, as long as your bankroll is big enough, and it may well be that your bankroll isn't big enough. What size unit do you use, how many in the bankroll, and your average strike rate for one method?

One last question for the moment, are you available to look at races and place bets during the day?

Follow the Race Advisor on social media on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Instagram. You can also find my personal accounts on Instagram and Facebook
.


ReplyQuote
Avatar
(@willxgb)
Active Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 14
08/08/2020 8:08 am  

@mikeywilding

Posted by: @mikeywilding

The first thing to do is always remove 30% of any new bank high. e.g. you go from £100 to £130 one day, take 30% of the £30 out, or £9. It doesn't matter if it's a few pennies, it's the principle and psychology of removing some of your profits every time you have a profit.

Ahh Nice one! was hoping for a suggestion like this. I will def try this, thanks! I think in my head I was just trying to let the profits build in order to have a bankroll which would allow for the bigger stakes but thats not the way of thinking at all eh..

 

Posted by: @mikeywilding

Staking the same stake every time is fine, as long as your bankroll is big enough, and it may well be that your bankroll isn't big enough. What size unit do you use, how many in the bankroll, and your average strike rate for one method?

Lets say a bankroll of 100 units to start and usually do a 2.5 units each way. This has slowly changed as I've been working on a strategy and I think my earlier method of 2 units but covering more selections worked better.. I really should calculate my average strike rate. Whats the best way of doing this?

Posted by: @mikeywilding

One last question for the moment, are you available to look at races and place bets during the day?

I work the dreaded night shift at the moment so usually come in, do my analysis and place bets then hopefully wake up to some profit haha. I admit though I am a sucker for making extra selections if I am available to watch the races which eats into my profits..

 

 


ReplyQuote
Avatar
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2394
08/08/2020 5:56 pm  
Posted by: @mikeywilding
Posted by: @mikeywilding

The first thing to do is always remove 30% of any new bank high. e.g. you go from £100 to £130 one day, take 30% of the £30 out, or £9. It doesn't matter if it's a few pennies, it's the principle and psychology of removing some of your profits every time you have a profit.

Ahh Nice one! was hoping for a suggestion like this. I will def try this, thanks! I think in my head I was just trying to let the profits build in order to have a bankroll which would allow for the bigger stakes but thats not the way of thinking at all eh..

Letting the bankroll grow for bigger stakes would be great, but for most of us it doesn't work and we feel like we're making no progress because we're getting no return on our efforts. Always take the payment for your time first, however small, let the bankroll grow with the rest.

Posted by: @willxgb

Lets say a bankroll of 100 units to start and usually do a 2.5 units each way. This has slowly changed as I've been working on a strategy and I think my earlier method of 2 units but covering more selections worked better.. I really should calculate my average strike rate. Whats the best way of doing this?

You can calculate your strike rate by taking the winners and dividing them by the number of selections. Multiple the result by 100 to turn it into a percentage.

e.g. 50 winners divided by 200 selections = 0.25 x 100 = 25% strike rate

Your bankroll doesn't sound anything like large enough, but work out your strike rate and let me know and we can take a look at it.

Posted by: @willxgb

I work the dreaded night shift at the moment so usually come in, do my analysis and place bets then hopefully wake up to some profit haha. I admit though I am a sucker for making extra selections if I am available to watch the races which eats into my profits..

Instead of doing this, setup a separate bankroll for these bets, don't use the same one for your methods. When you want to jump in and find a selection, check out the Jump In & Out strategy at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/instant-strategies/ It takes some practice, but if you do it regularly you will find it becomes profitable and has the double benefit of improving your form reading abilities very quickly.

Follow the Race Advisor on social media on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Instagram. You can also find my personal accounts on Instagram and Facebook
.


ReplyQuote
Avatar
(@willxgb)
Active Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 14
11/08/2020 9:44 am  
Posted by: @mikeywilding

You can calculate your strike rate by taking the winners and dividing them by the number of selections. Multiple the result by 100 to turn it into a percentage.

e.g. 50 winners divided by 200 selections = 0.25 x 100 = 25% strike rate

Your bankroll doesn't sound anything like large enough, but work out your strike rate and let me know and we can take a look at it.

Cheers, sorry if it's a stupid question but should I be factoring in those horses that placed in an each-way bet or just purely the winning horses? 

Thought the bank roll may be a problem..

Posted by: @mikeywilding

Instead of doing this, setup a separate bankroll for these bets, don't use the same one for your methods. When you want to jump in and find a selection, check out the Jump In & Out strategy at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/instant-strategies/ It takes some practice, but if you do it regularly you will find it becomes profitable and has the double benefit of improving your form reading abilities very quickly.

That sounds like a great idea. Almost a 'play" account haha. Will have a read up. 


ReplyQuote
Avatar
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2394
11/08/2020 12:01 pm  
Posted by: @willxgb

Cheers, sorry if it's a stupid question but should I be factoring in those horses that placed in an each-way bet or just purely the winning horses? 

Not a silly question. You need to do this for place parts of each-way bets as well. You'll need to work out the place odds and then calculate the amount of places you should have had from that. You'll then have an A/E ratio for win and for place separate. Let me know if that makes sense or if it's still not clear.

Follow the Race Advisor on social media on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Instagram. You can also find my personal accounts on Instagram and Facebook
.


ReplyQuote
Avatar
(@willxgb)
Active Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 14
25/08/2020 9:18 am  

Sorry about the delay in response, been extremely busy of late! 

@mikeywilding

Posted by: @mikeywilding

You need to do this for place parts of each-way bets as well. You'll need to work out the place odds and then calculate the amount of places you should have had from that.

Is this just a case of going through my bet history and jotting them all down? and then working them all out?

 

Also, there was an issue with my membership. Is the £40 the new or original price?I can't quite remember (oops)

 

Thank you.


ReplyQuote
Avatar
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2394
25/08/2020 1:20 pm  
Posted by: @willxgb

Sorry about the delay in response, been extremely busy of late! 

Absolutely no problem, whenever you're ready 🙂

Posted by: @willxgb

Is this just a case of going through my bet history and jotting them all down? and then working them all out?

Yup, it's that simple.

Posted by: @willxgb

Also, there was an issue with my membership. Is the £40 the new or original price?I can't quite remember (oops)

Hopefully our support team have sorted this out for you if you've been in touch with them. £40 is the original price, it will be increasing in a few weeks, but you'll be locked in at the legacy rate 🙂

Follow the Race Advisor on social media on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Instagram. You can also find my personal accounts on Instagram and Facebook
.


ReplyQuote
Share:
Back to top button
Close