William's 4-Step St...

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# William's 4-Step Strategy

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(@willxgb)
Eminent Member
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 20
10/11/2020 11:49 am

Thank you! Will have a little play and see how I get on.

Do the speed ranks play a major roll in these race types just like sprints?

(@mikeywilding)
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2535
11/11/2020 10:11 am

I would say they're still important, but less so than sprints. The most important will be speed over distance, followed by speed over ground. Be aware of the weight being carried by the horse, over longer distances the impact of increased weight is significantly magnified, and it's magnified again by another factor if the ground is soft or heavy.

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(@willxgb)
Eminent Member
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 20
12/11/2020 8:59 am

@mikeywilding Thank you for the response. I will certainly be looking at these factors when making selections.

Started out just making selections and making a spreadsheet without betting on them at this stage. Managed out of 6 horses to get 1 winner and 5 places! Happy with that start. In terms of place odds calculations should I be taking down the odds from betfair on the place market or canyon just perform a calculation on the winning odds? Something like '=SUM(G44/1*1/5)'

Cheers

(@mikeywilding)
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2535
12/11/2020 10:24 am
Posted by: @willxgb

In terms of place odds calculations should I be taking down the odds from betfair on the place market or canyon just perform a calculation on the winning odds?

Take down the place odds from Betfair. The calculation to estimate place odds is surprisingly complex, and I assume one of the reasons the bookmakers historically use 1/4 or 1/5 (from when it needed to be done in your head).

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(@willxgb)
Eminent Member
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 20
15/11/2020 12:48 pm

Posted by: @mikeywilding

Take down the place odds from Betfair. The calculation to estimate place odds is surprisingly complex, and I assume one of the reasons the bookmakers historically use 1/4 or 1/5 (from when it needed to be done in your head).

Thank you, I've started doing exactly that.

I've read back at previous advice from yourself and carried out some calculations.

On my A/W sprint strategy I've so far got a strike rate of 24% with an A/E of 1.06.

This figures doing sound exactly overwhelming but is this a good start and a suitable foundation to build upon ?

(@mikeywilding)
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2535
16/11/2020 10:26 am
Posted by: @willxgb

On my A/W sprint strategy I've so far got a strike rate of 24% with an A/E of 1.06.

This is a superb start. If it holds long term, you don't need to do anything else. You will find that the more you rinse and repeat this process, the quicker and easier to becomes to add new approaches.

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(@willxgb)
Eminent Member
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 20
18/11/2020 9:30 am
Posted by: @mikeywilding

This is a superb start. If it holds long term, you don't need to do anything else

Ahh that's nice and reassuring!

Posted by: @mikeywilding

You will find that the more you rinse and repeat this process, the quicker and easier to becomes to add new approaches.

I'll keep doing what I'm doing then and hopefully it starts firm! I do feel like I could further trim the fat and remove selections I'm not 100% sure about.

(@willxgb)
Eminent Member
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 20
19/11/2020 9:23 am

Just a quick question - Is the VDW score in your opinion one of the most vital factors when determining selections?

I was considering slightly changing my approach to only use contenders with a VDW score of 10 and under. Was wondering if you think this would be a good move or not?

Cheer,

Will

(@mikeywilding)