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Bit weird  



In todays race at Newcastle 3.10 chase. All the PR probabilities are at 11.11%. Why is this? It is not the first time I have seen it happen either , so what causes that.

Also this is a general question. Which of the VDW ratings should I attach more importance to? The score or the ability? I find the form part of that somewhat irrelevant but I wait to stand corrected on that.

1 Answer

This will usually be because we don't have enough data to accurately adjust the probabilities up or down, so they're left at the base level with every horse given the same chance to win.

Personally I prefer to put more weight on the Ability rating and if the horse is in the top four of the VDW Odds column. The form element is used by a lot of people, but I'm not a regular user because the differences between horses is usually quite small.

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