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[Solved] CD WINNERS

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I am doing an analysis of CD winners based on the CD winner field. 4 is "course and distance winner in the same race".

24th March 2030 Clonmel 4.30 Misty Adage is rated 4 but has not won this race before.

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@michael-clarke I may need to clear up the description a bit. When it says Course & Distance in the same race, it's not meaning the exact same race, it means the horse won over the course and distance in a single race, as opposed to the course in one race and distance in another race. For Misty Adage, you can see it won at Clonmel over 2m7f on the 4th March

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@mikeywilding

OK i see. Thanks.

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Topic starter

Actually still a bit confused, there seem to be very few horses rated 3.

As an example Musselburgh 12.40 today Celtic Flames has a rating of 1 (Course) but won over the same distance on it's last run.

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My formbook showed Celtic Flames as 'CDG' yesterday

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As far as I can see, Celtic Flames last race (pre-23rd November) was a 2m 4f 35y race, the race on the 23rd Nov was 2m 3f 171y. The difference is going to be dependent on how much margin is being given within the "same" distance. I will need to double check if we are giving any allowance, we may not be. If we're not I'm certainly happy to look at putting a margin in.

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Yes, it does seem a pointless measure if you are measuring to the exact yard. It is unlikely that a distance at 1 course will be replicated at another course.

AndrewP, I understand you use a different data source, do you know what rules they use for determining a distance winner?

@michael-clarke

Distance is to the nearest furlong (i.e. +/- 0.5 furlong). I think this is what the racing press uses and I believe my formbook takes C, D G and C&D straight from the supplier.

It has calculated variables for 'efficiency on adjacent goings' and 'efficiency at adjacent distances' and these are within +/-10% of todays race.

Thanks Andrew. I suggest RA should follow the same logic, i.e. round to the nearest furlong. I think official distances aren't that accurate anyway due to moving running rails etc.

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I have analysed the last 7 years NH data for course winners and the strike rate has fallen in every single year, from 21% in 13/14 to 13% in 19/20.

This seems a very strange decline, can anybody think of any logical reason ?

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