[Solved] CD WINNERS
I am doing an analysis of CD winners based on the CD winner field. 4 is "course and distance winner in the same race".
24th March 2030 Clonmel 4.30 Misty Adage is rated 4 but has not won this race before.
Actually still a bit confused, there seem to be very few horses rated 3.
As an example Musselburgh 12.40 today Celtic Flames has a rating of 1 (Course) but won over the same distance on it's last run.
My formbook showed Celtic Flames as 'CDG' yesterday
As far as I can see, Celtic Flames last race (pre-23rd November) was a 2m 4f 35y race, the race on the 23rd Nov was 2m 3f 171y. The difference is going to be dependent on how much margin is being given within the "same" distance. I will need to double check if we are giving any allowance, we may not be. If we're not I'm certainly happy to look at putting a margin in.
Yes, it does seem a pointless measure if you are measuring to the exact yard. It is unlikely that a distance at 1 course will be replicated at another course.
I have analysed the last 7 years NH data for course winners and the strike rate has fallen in every single year, from 21% in 13/14 to 13% in 19/20.
This seems a very strange decline, can anybody think of any logical reason ?