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[Solved] JOR appears to be incorrect possibly?  

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Having just watched the 13:45 Pontefract race, My selection based on various bits of data came third. The jockey (Hannah Fraser) was having the fourth ride of her career. Her rating under JOR was 131.19 (As stated high to low) yet has not won a race within these four races. The winning jockey was William Cox, who has been riding for a long time and since the start of July, he has won 6 races and many placed races. His score is 13.54 nearly 120 points difference from the jockey who has raced just 4 times. 

 

Logically these scores appear to be totally wrong, I'd be grateful if someone could explain if it is wrong or if the scores are correct, how are these scores collated so I can decide whether to use it or disregard this dubious data.

 

Best regards

Mark  

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HI Mark, I've double checked these and they're correct. We don't focus on jockey strike rates, instead we score jockeys by the performance of their horses. We do this using a time decay function, so a jockey who has been riding a long time doesn't have their results skewed by great results that happened years ago.

In this example, as you say William Cox has been riding a long time, but if we just take since racing begun after lockdown, he has had 73 rides and won 8 times. That's an 11% strike rate, which isn't great. But if you look at his horses average speed figures they've been 105, which isn't bad but also not great. Then look at how far behind the winner he has been, and on average it's 9.37 lengths, when winning he's only been an average of 0.46 lengths in the lead. Both of those figures are pretty poor.

Hannah's horses on the other hand have run to much higher speed figures, and have only been an average of 2.3 lengths behind the winners. Even in this race her horse only came 2 lengths behind the winner.

Scoring jockeys this way will highlight strong jockeys that the are stronger than the public think, and weak jockeys that the public think are strong. You can see the recent strike rate next to the jockey name on the race card as well if you also want to use that.

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@mikeywilding

Thanks for the detailed answer. I fully understand the way it is all put together, however, the speed of a horse doesn't truly reflect on the jockey's ability in my opinion. Though I have no suggestions otherwise, I'm sure in the majority of cases it may well fit. Unfortunately the jockey today did nothing other than sit on the horse and 130+ rating just doesn't add up on this one occasion. I guess every situation doesn't fit all, I will have to add jockey claims to ensure I don't suffer the same situation for the future.

 

Thanks again

Mark

As you say, measuring a jockey is difficult, the only way I can see of measuring them is by using the horses performance. The more they ride the more accurate it should become. If you think of another way I'm always happy to take a look at the possibility of adding it 🙂

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