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[Solved] PR ratings not calculating correctly  

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Hi 

Grateful if you can check the calculations behind the PR odds.

 

for example Tramore 17.45 Fuinseoinges Fire showing 6.7 with setting at 55, but Betfair odds are 42 back 240 lay.

 

many thanks

 

Graham

@gmitch270468 I can see the odds have come in on Betfair and the PR Odds showing 16.45 for this horse now, but am happy to go through the calculations to double check everything is fine. They are very complicated so this will take a little bit of time.

Hi Michael

 

Sorry sorry to be going on again about PR odds not calculating correctly and apologies if you are looking at this, but when I look at Bath 7.30 at 10.30am I set them to 100 and the Betfair odds it is pulling through are 1.01 when the market has been formed for a while and showing 7.6 win. I use the standard 55 setting but this is throwing up a false bet for my system this morning.

 

many thanks

 

Graham

6 Answers
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I've investigated this thoroughly, but can't see any issues in the PR Odds. The algorithm has been tweaked slightly to improve them while we were going through them.

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@mikeywilding 

This is the 5:45 at Tramore as downloaded about 8:30am today, Bonarc is the odds on fav and has been pretty much all day he also ranks very high in loads of other stats but according to PR ratings he has less than 1% chance of winning ? Also Fuinseoiges Fire is the Pr top rated it is currently 100/1 ?

I have been seeing this for a couple of weeks now, so I think there is something not adding up correctly.

HorsePRScorePRProbabilityPRPotentialsPRContenderPREliminatedPROddsPRRawOdds
Fuinseoiges Fire19.717.01XX 3.445.88
Samba Dancer20.3818.27XX 4.365.47
Sir Neymar17.6913.54X  4.587.38
Ormond Stile18.4614.82XX 5.846.75
Different Spot12.86.77X  7.4514.77
Sani Pass13.197.23X  7.9313.83
Railway Hurricane14.639.04X  8.8311.06
Courting Vickie12.856.82X  9.414.65
Foilnamban8.732.91X  19.4534.42
Ardaghs Choice7.41.99  X25.4350.27
Bonarc5.510.99  X47.17101.03
Dave And Bernie3.360.27  X167.68368.46
Cloak Of Darkness2.680.14  X328.8726.51
Banjo10  X452.261000
Minella Moment2.430.1  X454.331007.86
Milestone Girl2.430.1  X457.391007.86

@positronic I am looking into this at the moment, but it may take a bit of time to go through.

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@mikeywilding  Another strong example of issues with the PR Ratings, this is the 2:25 at Newbury today downloaded about 11:30 this morning.

At first glance it looks ok until you look at Orbaan and Jahbath both have very good records at 1m and are joint 3 fav , yet Jahbath has 0% chance of winning according to PR ?

I know your looking in to this but for me this is a big problem as I use the PR stats as my first check on any race and it appears to me to be broken and has been for about a week or so.

Please help me Michael, your my only hope 😉 

HorsePRScorePRProbabilityPRPotentialsPRContenderPREliminatedPROdds
Tempus52.3912.75X  6.34
Afaak51.0412.09X  7.13
Overwrite55.5314.35XX 9.18
Prince Of Harts72.2724.52XX 10.36
Pride Of America46.5810.03X  11.36
Kasbaan53.9813.55XX 11.57
Modern Millie42.268.22  X13.18
King Carney26.983.26  X19.09
Orbaan17.051.24  X40.94
Jahbath10  X454.6

Ok, not such a good example after the result and its definitely not every race as the top PR picks have won a few races today already.

This is a better example of what I am trying to point out, 2:05 Newmarket To Nathaniel had neon lights highlighting him as a potential winner but the PR score put him at the bottom, he won. Indigo Lake 2nd. As I said I have seen a lot of horses with good stats at the bottom of the PR list and win.

 

HorsePRScorePRProbabilityPRPotentialsPRContenderPREliminatedPROdds 
Boss Power41.9913.93XX 4.87.18
Allegiant62.6821.04XX 4.894.75
Knowing37.0912.46X  7.468.03
Zuba75.0625.99XX 7.783.85
Night Bear15.386.93  X9.5114.42
Midnights' Gift32.0711.04X  12.339.06
Indigo Lake14.16  X14.2324.05
To Nathaniel2.714.45  X15.1722.47
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@mikeywilding Hi Michael, I think I have worked out what is going on with the PR ratings, I have exported my usual race card that I use twice, and horses have moved around a little on some races so I then compared the export sheets to the live race cards and it would appear that for some reason it is not applying the public odds factor onto all the races when you export the data I have mine set to 55 but it looks like it randomly only applies about 25 and lower to some race cards which which would explain why you can get a fav in the betting at the bottom of an exported PR rating because it either hasn't applied any public odds factor or only a very low factor but what I cant see is a pattern, it seems to be completely random on which races it affects.

Have you had a chance to look into it yet ?

Cheers

Will

@positronic still looking into it, I can't see any issues yet but haven't finished. I think the public odds are applying, but if PR is saying that it's a very low chance of winning, the public odds won't make a huge impact even at 55%. Change them to 99% for a race and you'll see them change. However, while I'm going through them I am taking the opportunity to tune the algorithm further 🙂

@mikeywilding Yes, I have upped my PR to 75%, but a lot of the horses I have seen at the bottom also have VDW ratings 1 and top 4 5278 stat as well, which is what led me to believe something wasn't quite right with the exported stats, its definitely an export thing, as I mentioned above you go into the live card and everyone is pretty much where you would expect them to be knowing how the PR is calculated, I love using the export version because for me it is very quick to spot potentials withe the stats I use but at the moment I cant trust the exported versions.

@positronic ah, I miss-read that you were looking at the exported versions. When you export, it will use the last recorded odds for the horses in any factors that use live odds.

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@mikeywilding Just exported today's races and all looks good, the export sheets are like the data stream form the Matrix to me, Its just a sheet of numbers but I see patterns and the glitch is no longer there 😊 😎 😀 🤗 😎 

@positronic thanks Graham, we've been working on it overnight and got it fixed. We're currently looking into whether this has caused issues on historic exports.

@mikeywilding William 😬 

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Whilst we are on this topic, can I assume that the PR Contenders as marked in historic data are those calculated at or near to the start of the race? I ask as some contenders change, certainly from exports the night before a race, so I assume that they change nearer the off as well. Thanks

@jamesamiller51 yes they are, the historic PR Odds are also based on Betfair SP when we receive it. It looks like this bug may have caused an issue in exporting historic PR Odds, we are still looking into it, but if it has we will correct it and let you know over the weekend so you can re-download any data.

ok great, thanks very much

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