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(@cdhamley_uk)
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15/10/2020 8:52 pm  

I am still relatively new to betting on horse racing and 3 questions have come up recently. I thought that I would put them into 1 post to save me adding 3 different posts in quick suggestion. Any thoughts or opinions will be appreciated.

Question 1

what do people do when a strategy identifies multiple contenders for the same race and more than one look like it is worth a bet? Do you pick the strongest of the contenders or bet on them all?

Then as a follow up if you choose to bet on multiple do you bet your normal stake on each horse, or split the stake, given that only one can win?

 

Question 2

When reviewing contenders what mindset to people take? Is this horse good enough, or no I don't think this horse will win?

 

Question 3

When do people think is the best time to place bets, given that i cannot do it just before the race due to work commitments etc. As far as I see it there are 3 options...

a) the night before

b) early in the morning of the race

c) after 9am when most bookies BOG comes into place

 

sorry for the long post!!


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(@andrewp)
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15/10/2020 9:24 pm  

Answer 1: Dutch them i.e. stake each to return 1 point (including stake). 1 point being a safe portion of your bank say 1/10th.

Answer 2: I ask myself, 'What chance does it have given the number of contenders?' Then, 'what is  everyone else likely to bet on (quick glance at the market odds/chance)? Then, is the market likely to give this horse less chance than me?' If the answer to the last one is 'yes' then bet it. If you're right the winners will come in the right quantity to make a profit.

Answer 3: I saw an analysis recently that showed Betfair SP was actually better on average than early shows (when overround is greatest). That would be a fall-back option. Try doing answer 2 and requesting the price corresponding to the chance you give the horse on Betfair exchange, maybe even a tick higher. Alternatively, stake to return 1 point as in answer 1 but put half on at the early price and half at Betfair SP.


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(@andrewp)
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15/10/2020 9:29 pm  

I forgot about BOG. If you can get this, take it while you can. Michael Clarke will advise on which bookie is likely to offer it longest. 


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(@michael-clarke)
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16/10/2020 12:22 am  

@andrewp

My answers would be :-

1. Back the one at the shortest odds. 

2. If it is a contender then I back it, try not to overthink the process.

3. Take the best price in the morning after 9am using BOG. Take advantage of any offers, e.g. price boosts, free bet if 2nd, extra place offers etc.


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(@cdhamley_uk)
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16/10/2020 9:19 pm  

@andrewp @michael-clarke

 

thank you both for your responses it is appreciated.

I am definitely going to take advantage of BOG going forward as a horse that I had at 9-1 was 16-1 just before the race that it won.

With regards to multiple contenders in the same race, I think I will give dutching them a go first, as I have seen the horse with worse odds win a few times.

In relation to backing all contenders I am not sure that I agree with this approach as today I saved on 4 bets that I didn't make, which then all went on to be losing bets. I appreciate that at times I will get it wrong and a horse that I discard will win, but I think this risk is outweighed by the benefit.


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(@michael-clarke)
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16/10/2020 9:21 pm  

How did you decide to not bet on the 4 selections that lost ?


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(@cdhamley_uk)
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16/10/2020 9:33 pm  

@michael-clarke

2 were because of a high DSLG compared to the other runners.

One was well outside of the top 50 when I reviewed it

The other one had never run chase turf before and was also low on different speed ratings and didn't look good on form ratings either


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(@michael-clarke)
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16/10/2020 9:41 pm  

Ok.

If you are going to use DSLG as a criteria then I would probably exclude any that don't fit the criteria. This takes the subjectivity out of the equation.


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(@cdhamley_uk)
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16/10/2020 9:49 pm  

@michael-clarke

 

agreed although I don't know what it will be yet as I need to do some analysis. I don't think it will just be a straight figure though as some races all horses have a high number for this rating


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(@michael-clarke)
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16/10/2020 10:12 pm  

If they all have a high rating then there could be a question mark about all of them and it may be best simply to ignore the race.


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(@andrewp)
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16/10/2020 10:28 pm  

In relation to backing all contenders I am not sure that I agree with this approach as today I saved on 4 bets that I didn't make, which then all went on to be losing bets. I appreciate that at times I will get it wrong and a horse that I discard will win, but I think this risk is outweighed by the benefit.

It's all about what stake you put on them Chris. You're right, about weighing risk and benefit but that doesn't have to mean bet or no bet. I suggested staking each contender to return one point but you can even stake some to return a small loss rather than leave them out all together. It's a form of 'hedging' and keeps your strike rate up and volatility down.

With races of the right shape you can often back the whole field staking according to your edge. Some will will show a profit if they win, some a small loss. So long as the profit outweighs the loss it's happy days.


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(@cdhamley_uk)
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16/10/2020 10:40 pm  

@michael-clarke

thanks I will bear this in mind


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(@andrewp)
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17/10/2020 2:13 pm  

With races of the right shape you can often back the whole field staking according to your edge. Some will will show a profit if they win, some a small loss. So long as the profit outweighs the loss it's happy days.

The  Long Distance Cup was a race of the right shape. Here's last nights exchange prices, my formbook prices and how the race would have been staked.

OffTime Course Name Mkt Price Formbook Stake Return TotalStakes P/L
13.2 ASCOT MILDENBERGER 130 51 1.69 219.61 -61.51 158.10
13.2 ASCOT SOVEREIGN 15 6 14.31 214.70 -61.51 153.20
13.2 ASCOT FUJAIRA PRINCE 15 7.5 10.98 164.70 -61.51 103.20
13.2 ASCOT TRUESHAN 23 15 5.13 118.04 -61.51 56.53
13.2 ASCOT MONICA SHERIFF 95 67 1.12 106.50 -61.51 44.99
13.2 ASCOT BROOME 14 11 6.57 91.98 -61.51 30.47
13.2 ASCOT MAX VEGA 75 67 1.02 76.64 -61.51 15.14
13.2 ASCOT SPANISH MISSION 29 26 2.63 76.24 -61.51 14.74
13.2 ASCOT DUBIOUS AFFAIR 150 151 0.43 64.04 -61.51 2.54
13.2 ASCOT SEARCH FOR A SONG 7 8.5 6.72 47.06 -61.51 -14.45
13.2 ASCOT MORANDO 21 26 2.17 45.47 -61.51 -16.03
13.2 ASCOT DAWN PATROL 16 21 2.56 40.89 -61.51 -20.61
13.2 ASCOT STRADIVARIUS 2.2 4.5 6.18 13.59 -61.51 -47.91
          61.51      

Stradavarius was clearly going to be favourite but offered poor value. Nevertheless, the non-value runners could be staked according to edge to reduce the loss. A potential profit on 9 runners. A potential loss on 4 runners with a max downside of £47.91 not the full £61.51


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(@cdhamley_uk)
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19/10/2020 8:14 am  

@andrewp

Thats certainly an interesting approach. Feel like it would need quite a big bank roll though.

How did the race turn out for you?


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(@mikeywilding)
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19/10/2020 12:05 pm  

Trueshan won the race so @andrewp would have made a profit of 56.53

Here's my answers to the questions 🙂

Posted by: @cdhamley_uk

Question 1

what do people do when a strategy identifies multiple contenders for the same race and more than one look like it is worth a bet? Do you pick the strongest of the contenders or bet on them all?

Then as a follow up if you choose to bet on multiple do you bet your normal stake on each horse, or split the stake, given that only one can win?

 

Question 2

When reviewing contenders what mindset to people take? Is this horse good enough, or no I don't think this horse will win?

 

Question 3

When do people think is the best time to place bets, given that i cannot do it just before the race due to work commitments etc. As far as I see it there are 3 options...

a) the night before

b) early in the morning of the race

c) after 9am when most bookies BOG comes into place

Question 1: I bet on them all with proportional staking.

Question 2: Is the horses odds offering a high enough return for the risk. This is your edge, but rather than doing it statistically form readers will do it with practice and instinct.

Question 3: I tend to place it as close to the race off as possible, so I can see exactly what the market is saying, as well as any changes in conditions. However if I could get BOG that would be my preference.

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