A Massive Thank You
 
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James Black
(@boomingj)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 24
20/10/2020 12:01 pm  

I would like to give a massive thank you to Michael and everyone involved with Race Advisor.

 

Just this month I have gone from a small winner into something so much more. Currently standing at 95.86 points profit. 

 

My old system was doing okay but since the 11/10 I have had just 7 losers out of 43 selections and made 93 of those 95 points.

 

It was on the 10th that I decided to overhaul my system after watching a lot of the videos on the YouTube channel, they are literally absolute gold. I was always looking for favourites but have honed in on the favourite favourite's..

 

I have attached a shot of the selections since the 13th (couldn't fit the 11th and 12th in) Green is win, yellow is place and red are no place. Each selection is staked 20/80 win/place and minimum odds on the place is 1.25 otherwise it is a win only bet. I use BSP and set and forget in the morning.

 

Thank you all.

James

1603191711-x.png

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(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2525
20/10/2020 12:46 pm  

@boomingj this is absolutely the best news to hear, congratulations 🙂

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(@cdhamley_uk)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 38
20/10/2020 3:06 pm  

Hi @boomingj 

I am glad to see your success it seems like you have put a lot of work into this.

 

if you are able to provide any further details on how your new system works though please it would be appreciated.


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James Black
(@boomingj)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 24
20/10/2020 4:11 pm  

Certainly, I filter by position finished last race 1-3 and SPDFIGAdjLR 1-4.  I then go through the shortlist and filter as per the YouTube video -

  This is probably the most useful of all.


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(@michael-clarke)
Noble Member Customer
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 1209
20/10/2020 11:58 pm  

Well done, excellent returns.

Is it possible to put up selections prior to racing ?


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(@cdhamley_uk)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 38
21/10/2020 9:39 am  

@boomingj

Thanks I appreciate you sharing. 

I use the same method for filtering but find I am sometimes eliminating a horse which goes on to win which can be frustrating

As a general rule do you find that you are keeping most or eliminating a lot of them?

 

 

 


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James Black
(@boomingj)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 24
21/10/2020 5:25 pm  

I can obviously filter out winners, it doesn't matter. What matters is the ones you leave in also win/place.  I usually end up with between 3-5 selections a day and they are normally the favourite.  Today it came up with 2 2nd favourites who both placed 3rd at odds of 1.66 and 1.70 but because they are bet 20/80 they made a nice profit.

 

I have attached today's picks...although a little late.

1603297512-20201021-Horse.png

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(@andrewp)
Honorable Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 540
21/10/2020 7:58 pm  

@boomingj

Do you know the A/E figure for your selections to date? Could you attach the whole spreadsheet with prices taken perhaps?


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James Black
(@boomingj)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 24
22/10/2020 12:31 pm  

I have back tested the system for the whole of 2019. This obviously does not take into account the current selections where I put it through the final filter 'me'. 

 

This was the criteria of the back test:

Odds rank 1

Last Race 1-3

Runners 8-13

RnkSPDFIGLrAdj 1-4

Distance 1,317 - 5,000

PFP must be increasing

 

Winners: 1,177 (35%)

Placed: 2,214 (67%)

Not placed: 1,103

Total races: 3,317

 

Expected winners: 1,075

Expected place: 2,153

 

Win edge: 8%

Place edge: 3%

 

Average odds: win 3.60 / place 1.61

 

This is my starting point. I then go through this shortlist (usually about 30 horses a day) and filter it as per Michaels videos... change in distance, change in class/prize money, weight increase, type of race, surface etc I am very harsh in this section and anything I um and er over gets binned immediately. I need to be 100% sure the horse will win the race, it might not but in my head I am 100% sure it will, this does not affect my bets though as I still only stake 1 point split 20/80 win/place markets.

 

That's it, pretty simple but since I implemented it I have only had 5 full losers. 


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(@michael-clarke)
Noble Member Customer
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 1209
22/10/2020 2:49 pm  

Thanks James. A couple of questions.

Why 8-13 runners?

How do you decide that the odds are too low?


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James Black
(@boomingj)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 24
22/10/2020 9:17 pm  
Posted by: @michael-clarke

Thanks James. A couple of questions.

Why 8-13 runners?

How do you decide that the odds are too low?

Usually if they are odds on but by looking at the race I judge it that odds shouldn't be that low. Yesterday all three won and I did have them in a small win ACCA but wouldn't bet a lot.

 

Is there any sites like Race Advisor that deal with the American and Australian horse racing?  It takes me about 30 minutes to pick out the UK horses so would like to also look further afield.

 

 


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James Black
(@boomingj)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 24
22/10/2020 9:20 pm  
Posted by: @michael-clarke

Thanks James. A couple of questions.

Why 8-13 runners?

How do you decide that the odds are too low?

8-13 runners because it doesn't work properly with 7 and under and over 13 I found was too much work. 8-13 means a good amount of selections.

1603398023-20201022-Horse.png

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(@andrewp)
Honorable Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 540
23/10/2020 7:51 am  

@boomingj

Thanks for posting James. What's your money on today?

Are your figures to prices taken or industry SP or Betfair SP?


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James Black
(@boomingj)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 24
23/10/2020 1:21 pm  
Posted by: @andrewp

@boomingj

Thanks for posting James. What's your money on today?

Are your figures to prices taken or industry SP or Betfair SP?

I use Betfair SP, just seems to make considerably more. Today has been tough for choices...


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James Black
(@boomingj)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 24
27/10/2020 10:23 am  

Only 2 selections today, there were very few after the initial cull and even less once I looked closer. However, it did highlight a chance for 2 horses in one race. I couldn't split them.. so small stake on both @ 20/80 and a small R/F.

 

James

1603794215-20201027-Horse.png

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