Alex's 4-Point Plac...
 
Notifications

Alex's 4-Point Place Winners  

Page 1 / 2
  RSS

Alex Bradley
(@alex-bradley)
Trusted Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 64
10/02/2020 8:47 pm  

Hi Michael

I like place betting on aw racing and using speed graphs for this.

If horse is ticked on PR odds or may have a good VDW score that standing above the rest and has good speed on that distance and going I go for a place.

Since I  joined it was the back end of the flat season and didn't have clue with my approach so look forward to trying it out on the turf too.

I don't like big down swings hence I do a lot of place betting.

 


Quote
Alex Bradley
(@alex-bradley)
Trusted Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 64
10/02/2020 9:20 pm  

Example

1440 at Chelmsford Double Martini is No 4 in the PR ratings and No 2 in the VDW ratings and has a progressive speeding rating at 1 mile this has a place bet from me. Also the race is in honor of the Greek god Peter Andre 🤣


ReplyQuote
Alex Bradley
(@alex-bradley)
Trusted Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 64
10/02/2020 9:44 pm  

Tone the Baron looks a good bet in the 1545 but the odds are way to short for my liking so will leave this alone. Hope this gives you a overview of my approach at this time.


ReplyQuote
Alex Bradley
(@alex-bradley)
Trusted Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 64
10/02/2020 10:15 pm  

Le Musee 1620 Newcastle tho short odds not to short for me.


ReplyQuote
Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1233
11/02/2020 11:38 am  

@alex-bradley that all makes sense. How much time do you have to spend in a day finding selections? And do you have a preference for the volume of bets?

 


ReplyQuote
Alex Bradley
(@alex-bradley)
Trusted Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 64
11/02/2020 5:17 pm  

Probably about 1 hour a day and do like a couple a day but don't force it if there aren't any


ReplyQuote
Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1233
12/02/2020 10:09 am  
Posted by: @alex-bradley

Probably about 1 hour a day and do like a couple a day but don't force it if there aren't any

Got it. That means you're looking for:

1) Place bets

2) One hour a day

3) Prefer very short losing sequences (six or less?)

4) Just one or two bets a day

It sounds like you've already got a good strategy in place, focusing on AW using VDW, PR Odds and Speed Graphs.

You may already be doing this, but you haven't mentioned that you're currently narrowing down the race conditions further than All Weather. It may be worth looking into using the VDW Race Scores (you could also use the four strongest in the Daily Digest) as this gives you an immediate idea of how strong the VDW ratings are going to be in a race.

As you're place betting, I think you'll find this particularly useful. The VDW Race Scores are based on the top four VDW horses in the race over historically similar races. Using those race scores in combination with the VDW ratings will give you a very strong jumping off point that you can then confirm using PR Odds and Speed Graphs.


ReplyQuote
Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1233
13/02/2020 2:31 pm  

@alex-bradley just a quick update as I'm moving each of the answers to the four questions into their own thread so I can keep track of the individual approaches. Please use this thread to keep me updated and ask any questions in. Have you had a chance to look at the things above yet?


ReplyQuote
Alex Bradley
(@alex-bradley)
Trusted Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 64
13/02/2020 8:54 pm  

@admin

Hi Michael

I took your advice and widen my horizon to your top 4 VDW score sent out on morning email. So the 1400 Leicester I went for a place bet on Vocaliser and it came in Iiked the VDW and the PR the speed was good on distance and the going which was soft at time of looking.

I went for Clondaw westie 1500 Leicester and this placed too same again good VDW and PR odds and good speed for distance and going.

Last one I went for was Rebel redemption in the 1730 Kemp but that didn't come anywhere I should of know better I didn't feel confident with it and and layed at a lower in place price but it didn't hit it anyway.

Next time if I don't feel confident I will leave alone..

Tomorrow will post my predictions if any on your top 4 VDW email before they race as I didn't realise this thread was going this way.

 


ReplyQuote
Alex Bradley
(@alex-bradley)
Trusted Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 64
13/02/2020 9:30 pm  

Hi looking through tonight cards so far before I retire I  like the look of Penny Mallow for a place bet great VDW and PR odds and was top speed on going soft though tomorrow showing good to soft so far.

Will look for more tomorrow:)


ReplyQuote
Alex Bradley
(@alex-bradley)
Trusted Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 64
14/02/2020 4:28 am  

Sorry this is 1550 at Fakenham


ReplyQuote
Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1233
14/02/2020 3:57 pm  

As I write this, I have the race open on the 15:50 at Lingfield, and haven't checked the race but have put a tenner on based on your analysis 🙂

You had a good start yesterday, and more importantly than that, this is very important:

Last one I went for was Rebel redemption in the 1730 Kemp but that didn't come anywhere I should of know better I didn't feel confident with it and and layed at a lower in place price but it didn't hit it anyway.

Next time if I don't feel confident I will leave alone..

If you don't feel confident always leave alone. I know that's hard to do sometimes, and I still place a bet that I know I shouldn't have because I wasn't quite comfortable with it.

I didn't realise this thread was going this way.

That's one of the great things about those questions, when you start looking into them, very often you find the most suited approach is different to what you thought it might be 🙂


ReplyQuote
Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1233
14/02/2020 4:09 pm  

Did you watch the race at Fakenham? If not you should try and watch the replay. Penny Mallow lead from the beginning for too long, and then didn't have the energy to continue.

If you go back to the race, and pull up the horse histories on the race, you can see that the winner was one of two horses that was proven over the distance and similar ground, as well as carrying a similar to weight when proven.

The other horse which had clear potential on the distance was Nifty Fifty, but you will notice that it's only good performances over the distance recently it was carrying four pounds less, which at this distance can make a big difference. It did well just over a year ago at Southwell, but the prize money was £4k, indicating a slightly lower class race.

Let me know if that's clear 🙂


ReplyQuote
Alex Bradley
(@alex-bradley)
Trusted Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 64
14/02/2020 8:37 pm  

@admin perfectly clear:) to be honest I thought I was looking at a 2 mile 4 furlong race I don't know why tired eyes maybe but yes I miss read that big time. But thank you for the advice:)

 


ReplyQuote
Brian Frew
(@bfrew7)
Estimable Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 111
14/02/2020 8:53 pm  

Very interested in Michael's analysis of Penny Mallow's performance.  I did it as an 80:20 as it ticked all my boxes for this and I watched the race.  It was a very disappointing effort and it finished totally tailed off and last...sigh. 

The winner intrigued me before the race, as its form was all in Ireland and looked useful, but it was friendless in the market and started as the outsider of the 5, at 10.  I've noticed this happening a few times now, where horses with Irish form are under-rated by the market, presumably because there is no comparative form with any of the other runners. 


ReplyQuote
Page 1 / 2
Share:
Back to top button
Close
Close