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Alex Bradley
(@alex-bradley)
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15/02/2020 12:08 pm  

@bfrew7 Thanks Brian for Reply I will look out for that too. It's my Birthday today so not really had a look but the worlds end in the 14.05 at Haydock is a bet for me today.

 


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(@bfrew7)
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15/02/2020 12:14 pm  

Happy Birthday! 

Yes, I'm on that one too Alex.  Also looking at The Dublin Pharoh (Ling 2:00) and Katchy (Ling 2:35). 

Good Luck.


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Alex Bradley
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15/02/2020 1:34 pm  

@bfrew7 thankyou Brian;)

 


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(@bfrew7)
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15/02/2020 2:51 pm  

Oh dear!  Sadly our run of poor form continues.  The World's End was pulled up last and poor old Kachy looks likely to have run her last race to me, given the way the horse was stopped and dismounted by Richard Kingscote.  At least The Dublin Pharoh won but it was small compensation.


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Alex Bradley
(@alex-bradley)
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16/02/2020 5:41 pm  

@bfrew7 yes hopefully the tide will turn. Didn’t look today as had a big day yesterday and was recovering today 

 


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Alex Bradley
(@alex-bradley)
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17/02/2020 11:29 am  

Looking at the 1900 @ Kempton which Top 4 VDW pointed me too.... I'm going for Oliver's pursuit as it was his first race on the AW and got the best speed figures on going  none of the top in the betting are proven at distance or going. So looks value


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(@mikeywilding)
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17/02/2020 8:11 pm  
Posted by: @bfrew7

The winner intrigued me before the race, as its form was all in Ireland and looked useful, but it was friendless in the market and started as the outsider of the 5, at 10.  I've noticed this happening a few times now, where horses with Irish form are under-rated by the market, presumably because there is no comparative form with any of the other runners. 

This is a great reason why you shouldn't always trust the market, to be profitable we want to beat the market, which means finding situations exactly like this, where we disagree with their opinion 🙂

That's not to say we shouldn't listen to the market, but if it's different to our opinion we need to spend some more time investigating to determine whether we feel we've missed something or if we think the market has it wrong (which is excellent for us).


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(@mikeywilding)
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17/02/2020 8:12 pm  
Posted by: @alex-bradley

@bfrew7 Thanks Brian for Reply I will look out for that too. It's my Birthday today so not really had a look but the worlds end in the 14.05 at Haydock is a bet for me today.

 

Happy birthday 😀


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(@mikeywilding)
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17/02/2020 8:14 pm  
Posted by: @alex-bradley

Looking at the 1900 @ Kempton which Top 4 VDW pointed me too.... I'm going for Oliver's pursuit as it was his first race on the AW and got the best speed figures on going  none of the top in the betting are proven at distance or going. So looks value

Could you walk me through your analysis of this race please?


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Alex Bradley
(@alex-bradley)
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17/02/2020 10:21 pm  

Thank you Michael

Yes I started looking at this race because it was in my daily digest email of the top 4 VDW races I started looking through the top 4 VDW horses and none of them had run or won at 7f before and had won in class 6 races I noticed that Oliver's pursuit was 2nd last time on SS and was only two pounds higher and had a good speed rating also this was in the same class race also I'm not looking for winners I was look for place bet.

Would love to have your help if I'm reading it totally wrong:)


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(@mikeywilding)
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18/02/2020 11:48 am  

@alex-bradley I think the general reading looks good, but the bit that you missed I think, is that the horse was not in the top four for VDW Odds, which is what the VDW race scores are based on, and although VDW Form is good, the VDW Ability score was quite low in comparison to the top rated 🙂

 


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Alex Bradley
(@alex-bradley)
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22/02/2020 11:33 am  

Been busy all week and today so first top VDW race of the day 1502 @ Kempton Buzz top in market in top 4 vdw and and PR and top speed on going hopefully more later.

.  v.


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Alex Bradley
(@alex-bradley)
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24/02/2020 10:22 am  

Today 1435 Capla Sprit and and Accessor 1505 will say how  I pick them later


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(@mikeywilding)
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24/02/2020 9:50 pm  

@alex-bradley a good day today 🙂 I'm assuming you're place betting these?

 


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Alex Bradley
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25/02/2020 5:43 pm  

Hi Michael

 

Yes it was only place bets it didn't see anything I fancied in top 4 VDW today


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