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Andy T
(@andypt007)
Eminent Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 33
22/04/2020 11:53 pm  

@mikeywilding

Thanks Michael - I think I'm ready to go now with placing some "live" bets through the training platform and maybe pick up again in around a week ?

Its only just starting to dawn on me how beneficial the training platform is - at first I assumed it was kind of a bit of fun to keep people occupied whilst there was no racing on ,but I can now see that this is actually a great way to trial strategies and systems going forward even after racing resumes and a very useful addition to the members offering.  ( my only concern with my strategy is that Id need to get a "feel" for races with more than 8 runners if I pitch at 8-13 runner fields - and it wouldnt work with bet to lay in play strategies which I'm interested in at some point, but you cant expect it to do everything !!).

With that in mind, do you know if/when 20/80 bet facilities will be available ? I'm thinking that will be my starting point for my strategy until I can analyse a decent amount of results and get a feel for strike rates on win only etc. I'm assuming its best to place ew in the meantime so that any place returns are captured ?

As a suggestion, it would also be good going forward to give you an option ( would have to be in the bet slip ) to say which strategy the bet relates to EG option to put A/B/C,D etc so its easy to analyse results by strategy if you are trying out more than one strategy at once ( or maybe tweaking one existing strategy whilst trying out a new one ).

 

Andy


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1649
23/04/2020 10:29 am  

@andypt007 Thanks Michael - I think I'm ready to go now with placing some "live" bets through the training platform and maybe pick up again in around a week ?

Sounds good, if you'd like to post the selections here as you go we can follow along, if not then let's catch up in around a week 🙂

Its only just starting to dawn on me how beneficial the training platform is - at first I assumed it was kind of a bit of fun to keep people occupied whilst there was no racing on ,but I can now see that this is actually a great way to trial strategies and systems going forward even after racing resumes and a very useful addition to the members offering. 

😀 great to hear. As you say it's a great way to trial strategies and systems and really understand how they're going to perform prior to risking hard earned money on them.

( my only concern with my strategy is that Id need to get a "feel" for races with more than 8 runners if I pitch at 8-13 runner fields - and it wouldnt work with bet to lay in play strategies which I'm interested in at some point, but you cant expect it to do everything !!).

We will be adding more runners in the future, as well as lay odds as well. There's currently no plans for in-play odds, but may be something that could be done if there was enough interest.

With that in mind, do you know if/when 20/80 bet facilities will be available ? I'm thinking that will be my starting point for my strategy until I can analyse a decent amount of results and get a feel for strike rates on win only etc. I'm assuming its best to place ew in the meantime so that any place returns are captured ?

I don't have a date currently, getting place bets is part of an upgraded bet tracker facility. I am hoping to be able to release it within the next couple of months. At the moment, as you say, use an each-way bet so that you can see win/losses to place.

As a suggestion, it would also be good going forward to give you an option ( would have to be in the bet slip ) to say which strategy the bet relates to EG option to put A/B/C,D etc so its easy to analyse results by strategy if you are trying out more than one strategy at once ( or maybe tweaking one existing strategy whilst trying out a new one ).

Absolutely, this is also part of the bet tracker facility that's coming 🙂

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Andy T
(@andypt007)
Eminent Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 33
29/04/2020 12:48 am  

@mikeywilding

Just an update on progress ( attached 2 page word doc screenshot).

So, current position is just under 3 pts ( 25 units = 1 point) loss over 26 bets.

The EW bets distort things a bit in that Id do 20/80 not 50/50 so potentially the true results will be in profit once this is applied as Ive had quite a few places.

ROI is -14% but A/E ratio is looking good at 1.34. I'm still struggling a bit to understand why its so good whilst ROI is negative -could you explain how its calculated in this example ?

Also 30% strike rate, but again not sure how this is calculated- does it take the ew as two bets and assume a place =50% strike rate for that race ?

I've also got a 3 out of 4 hit rate on bets dutched with 2 horses ( not a large sample I know !!!), but it feels like there were a few other races where perhaps I went ew on one horse rather than dutching a win on 2 horses. Im also restricting my bets to races with 8 runners because of the place angle with 3 places. Perhaps I should be opening up to races with less runners looking at win only or dutching ? I'd assumed lower race runners will lead to the chance of muddled pace, but would this be the case in sprints ? 

Also -do you think 7f is similar to 5f/6f or should 6f be the cut off for sprint strategies ?

 

Any comments or observations about my bets so far welcome !

 

Thanks

Andy

 

 

 

 

 

 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1649
29/04/2020 1:54 pm  

@andypt007 thank you for the update. Let me answer your questions first 🙂

ROI is -14% but A/E ratio is looking good at 1.34. I'm still struggling a bit to understand why its so good whilst ROI is negative -could you explain how its calculated in this example ?

A/E ratio is winners divided by expected winners. You can have a high A/E ratio and make a loss, but assuming the A/E ratio stays the same you can expect to come into profit as you're beating the odds. Looking at your results to date you've found 9 winners and the odds would have suggested only 6.39. However this has highlighted an issue with our A/E reporting, we are currently just looking at win odds, which will skew the A/E on E/W bets. I will look at this with our developer now and get an update pushed out to account for each-way bets.

Also 30% strike rate, but again not sure how this is calculated- does it take the ew as two bets and assume a place =50% strike rate for that race ?

For strike rate we consider a winning bet to be any bet where you've made greater than 0 profit.

For the moment I wouldn't look at changing what you're doing in terms of bet type or criteria, it's too early to make any changes. Stick with 5f and 6f eight runner races and placing 20/80 bets. We need to get that working first before making any adjustments or including more races.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1649
30/04/2020 10:17 am  

@andypt007 we have corrected the A/E ratio for each-way bets, and you will see it has now dropped it in your betting history.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Andy T
(@andypt007)
Eminent Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 33
01/05/2020 10:39 am  

@mikeywilding

 

Thanks. There appears to be something in the system now that restricts bets to 5 units. As this will distort my figures Ill take these into a spreadsheet and apply the 20/80 place bet method as well to get a realistic benchmark. 

I'll try and work out the strike rate and A/E ratio as well , then I can see how these calculate better - I'l llet you know if I need any further help with that !!

 

Andy


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Andy T
(@andypt007)
Eminent Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 33
01/05/2020 10:41 am  

@mikeywilding

Or does the restriction just mean Ive been gubbed !!!! 😀 😀 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1649
02/05/2020 11:59 am  

@andypt007 you should have received an email about why this has happened. If not it may have gone to your junk folder by mistake, or you've stopped the email updates 🙂

I posted this in another thread to explain what's happened:

You can now only stake 5 Bonus RaceCoins a bet on a free account and a maximum of 5 coins on a Pro account. This is only for Bonus RaceCoins, Standard wallet coins you can stake whatever you like.

The profit from Bonus RaceCoin bets is paid into your Standard Wallet account, but it's now paid in once a day and you only get paid in the total profit from all bets that day with Bonus RaceCoins. If there is a net loss for the day then nothing will get paid in.

The daily profit made today from Bonus RaceCoins will show in your account tomorrow 🙂

This change has been put into place as there was a growing trend of users taking advantage of being able to make a profit with no loss and staking larger and larger amounts to accrue very large volumes of coins.

Putting these practices into place will severely limit the ability to make very large volumes of coins by abusing the ability to never have the accountability of losses on Bonus RaceCoins.

However, we are currently discussing (like right this second :D) whether to allow free accounts to bet a range of coins as this has now limited to 5 unit stakes only. I shall keep you posted on that.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1649
05/05/2020 7:39 am  

@andypt007 we have just allowed the ability to bet between 1 and 5 Bonus RaceCoins on a horse 🙂

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Andy T
(@andypt007)
Eminent Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 33
19/05/2020 2:01 pm  

@mikeywilding

Sorry I couldn't join you on the facebook live session last night- but Ive watched the replay back and I'm very interested in taking this angle and tweaking it a bit for my own preferences ( and it also fits nicely with my current focus on 5f/6f sprints). 

Just one question - if I download historical data to look for other criteria, is there a field that brings in the predicted pace of the race ? If not, is the predicted race based on other fields that are downloadable ? ( eg pace = fast where total pace >x ) ?

Also I'm at about 80 bets on my 4 point strategy. I was ticking along nicely at around 1.08 A/E but Ive had a bad run and now down to 0.88. I think I'm approaching time to review my selections. Can you download Aldermist results in the same way as other data, or is there a better way for me to start analysing where I can improve ?

Just one unrelated point - when analysing historical results for angles, the type of race ( eg hcap, novice, maiden etc ) is something thats worth a look - I cant see a field in the data that gives this ? Is there a way to bring this race type into the downloads ?

 

Thanks

Andy

 

 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1649
20/05/2020 2:34 pm  

@andypt007 great to hear. Currently you can't export the predicated pace of a race, but I have now added this to our development list.

On the bad run, how many selections are in the bad run, and what is the strike rate? The A/E can drop on a bad run when the overall volume of selections is still comparatively low (from a statistical perspective). So it may not be as bad as you think it could be. An 8% advantage is very good. Are you running the Chi2 on the selections as well?

You can't currently export Aldermist results, we haven't decided whether that would be a useful feature or not but would welcome any feedback. The way to optimise will be to start by sharing results, and if you have. any of your own spreadsheets with information in, those as well. Then I will advise on the quickest way to optimise and some places you can start 🙂

As you say, we don't currently have the classifications in the exports, although they are in the race name a lot of the time. One of the reasons is that a lot of races have multiple classifications and we've not settled on a suitable way to display them in an export file that makes them easily useable. Again, any feedback is always appreciated.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Andy T
(@andypt007)
Eminent Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 33
24/05/2020 12:31 am  

@mikeywilding

Do you have details on how to calculate the CHI2 ? I recall reading it somewhere but cant find the article.

I was just interested in downloading Aldermist results so I could analyse my selections to see if there was something I could take into account to improve my processes. Whats the best way you would recommend to do this ? 

 

Thanks

Andy


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1649
25/05/2020 11:20 am  

@andypt007 I need to do a new article on how to calculate the chi square. There is one at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/who-is-archie/ which shows you how to calculate an Archie score (which is a version of the chi square)

We don't have a download of Aldermist results, however if you placed a bet with RaceCoins on the selections through the software you will be able to access the result by clicking on the Date/Time field in your Bet History page at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/virtual-betting/

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Andy T
(@andypt007)
Eminent Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 33
26/05/2020 1:18 pm  

@mikeywilding

Thanks - I'm approaching 100 bets now and I'm going to be around break even , maybe slight edge. I'll send you a summary of key headlines from the bets when I reach the 100 mark, but I think its a good base from which to analyse what other factors I can consider to improve the results.

I'll look over the results over the next week or so and see if there is anything I can pull from the successful and unsuccessful bets without reverse engineering things. Would like to be able to test this on live racing once we get going again

 

Andy

 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1649
27/05/2020 10:10 am  

@andypt007 excellent. Just to confirm, being at a break-even point after 100 bets is significantly better than the majority of bettors, you should be very pleased with that result so quickly. Once you've got those results collated, drop them in here and I will also go through them and start to see where we can make adjustments. Then we can re-convene to map out the next stage 🙂

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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