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Andy T
(@andypt007)
Eminent Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 33
27/05/2020 12:33 pm  

@mikeywilding

Ive attached my results in the attached spreadsheet.

Quick summary - 101 bets , ROI based on 20/80 ( and assuming 1/5 odds on 3 places ) 1.33%, A/E 1.01, SR ( assuming a "win" is anything in profit) 57%, longest losing run 8, longest winning run 12.

Based on win only ROI 0.5%, A/E 0.98, SR 24%, longest losing run 16, longest winning run 2.

I havent had a fully "systemised" methodology - process has been pick contenders from PR odds ( 8 runner races AW Standard and Turf not in extreme conditions, excluding novice/maidens etc ), add any in top 3 in market not in list, eliminate any over 180 DSLGR ( in live racing I wouldnt eliminate any that run well fresh) , have a general look at main indicators for strongest contenders  ( 5278, PFP, Speed rank, GRL10) placing more weight on strong contenders per PR odds line and then review form to make sure contenders can act on todays race type and are on an upward curve.

I guess next stage is to see whether this can be refined by reviewing which indicators or race types gave the strongest outcomes, maybe look at varying bet type between win and place or dutching etc, maybe extending races to lower than 8 runners or different ground types.

Place results may be impacted by price obtainable in market and the fact that not all races I pick in live racing will be 8 runners.

 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1649
27/05/2020 4:30 pm  

@andypt007 I will go through in detail and come back to your shortly 🙂

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1649
27/05/2020 7:22 pm  

@andypt007 is it possible to add some more details to the spreadsheet, such as race type, class, going? So we can see if we need to adjust for specific race conditions.

Also, some races you have two selections and some only one. Under what conditions do you consider two selections as opposed to one?

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Andy T
(@andypt007)
Eminent Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 33
28/05/2020 12:28 pm  

@mikeywilding

Yes - that was the motivation behind my question as to whether Aldermist historical races were downloadable as I havent been keeping other records - just copying and pasting results from Aldermist betting history. I would definitely keep more records in a live system but for now I just need to go back and look in more detail at my selection process to pinpoint where it can be tweaked. I have been keeping to particular race type criteria ( 5f or 6f, AW Standard or Turf non extreme going and no maiden or novice races ) so my analysis would be more around the other factors such as PFP, DSLGR,5278, speed, price, pace etc etc.

Ive been generally keeping to races where I identified a selection which stood out from the rest and just picked two where I couldn't separate them and left races where Ive had more than two that I couldn't separate easily. Again, something I can go back to now.


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Andy T
(@andypt007)
Eminent Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 33
29/05/2020 12:33 pm  

@mikeywilding

Ive added more info and done a quick analysis - any observations/comments welcome !

Just reviewing based on 20/80 odds ( which are around 1% ROI overall for 100 bets )

There is an immediate difference between AW and Turf - AW 15% ROI, Turf -10%.

Although AW doesn't look to be an issue, a quick look shows the following - 

High return on 6f , b/even on 5f- may be something to bear in mind rather than take action on ,but may be that pace and speed needs more consideration in 5f.

Ranked 1 in probability/pbr odds ( which is my main shortlisting strategy) gives loss, but 2 and 3 in profit - maybe 1 rank are underpriced ?

There is a range between 27% and 35% chance of winning per pbr odds that shows losses, above and below this range in profit - probably not enough data to take any action on this but worth bearing in mind.

RR < 5.5 gives better results

DSLGR <100 ( but not enough bets over 100 DSLGR to make firm conclusion )

Speed Ranked 1 and 8 make losses - 8 for obvious reasons and maybe 1 underpriced ?

PFP under 1508 make losses ( which is a cut off you use generally )

 

TURF

RR under 5.5 ( as per AW ) brings the position back to b/even

PFP over 1508 also seems to improve things.

 

Andy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1649
29/05/2020 7:30 pm  

@andypt007 great, thanks for the additional data and info. The reason for asking about the races with multiple horses, is that you're finding excellent value in races with two selections and making a good profit on them. This makes me think that you are over-valuing the ratings for races where you feel there is only one selection. It would be worth going back over some of those races and cross-checking, because I think you're putting to much importance on one or two of the factors in those races. It's most likely going to be factors where two horses are very close to each other in the races with multiple selections.

If you can pinpoint which factors you are putting too much importance on when you think there's only one contender, you can start to re-assess with less importance on that factor.

There is definitely a possibility that PR Odds Rank 1 is under-priced, however this will only be in certain situations, and I wouldn't change this now if it's a core part of the approach. We can work around that, and the fact that you are break-even across all selections, and making a profit in races with multiple selections would bear that out.

The race type statistic however is very interesting. The next steps I would suggest taking are focusing on All Weather only, these races do perform differently to turf despite some cross-over, and looking for the factor/s which you may be over-weighting. When you find it, the tendency will be to reduce its importance in your analysis too far. Don't worry, that's expected, you can assume you will need to have a couple of goes to get it just right.

Run a few more races with these adjustments and then re-assess. Hopefully this will see a push above break-even into a small profit, and we can then take it from there.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Andy T
(@andypt007)
Eminent Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 33
30/05/2020 12:13 am  

@mikeywilding

Thanks for the reply. I think one issue is that I'm reading the ratings from right to left- so the first rating I see is PFP so perhaps I'm subconsciously underrating horses overall when I see they have a low PFP compared to other contenders. 

But I think the key thing is that when I've got my contenders and I form-reading the contenders I'm automatically looking for the horse I think will win the race based on form and if I think its ahead of others for one reason or another. I'm only backing two horses where I cant distinguish between two horses but they both stand out from the others.

From what you are saying my mindset needs to be more - " is this contender capable of winning the race based on todays conditions" rather than " which do I think is the best horse in the race based on todays conditions"


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1649
01/06/2020 5:34 pm  
Posted by: @andypt007

From what you are saying my mindset needs to be more - " is this contender capable of winning the race based on todays conditions" rather than " which do I think is the best horse in the race based on todays conditions"

Beautifully put, that's exactly it. There are very (very, very) few races where only one horse has a serious chance of being capable of winning it. Even the a lot of races where there the favourite is short odds-on there are other horses that have a credible chance (and they often win).

The question we should always be asking ourselves is not which is the best horse, but which horses are 'capable'. It is the odds available that then determines which of the capable horses are worthwhile betting. As opposed to us ignoring capable horses because we don't think they're the best.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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