Arnold Hall 4-Step Strategy
1. I prefer to back but I also do each way. Will do Dutch. Dislike lay because of liability. Have seen poor returns from Place.
2. I have, on average, about an hour per day to find selections
3. I don't like losing (who does) and begin to get tetchy after 3-4 losing days
4. I have no fixed views on number of bets per day
Thank you for your answers @arnold-hall I've made this thread for you. Please use this thread to ask any questions, post selections, updates and it's where we'll work together to make this profitable for you.
If we focus on back selections initially, an hour a day is a good amount of time to find them. The only question I have before suggesting an approach is if you get a bit uncomfortable after 3-4 losing days, what about how many selections in a row losing, how many would start to make you uncomfortable?
It would also be very handy to have an idea of what kind of reduction in your bankroll would start to make you concerned as well.
@mikeywilding Like most people, I guess, I don't like losing at all but recognise it happens - often. I am uncomfortable with 3-4 losing days. That tends to be when I wonder about my selection techiques and begin to dabble - generally aggravating the problem. If I lost 50% of my bankroll I would be very concerned. It has happened and my efforts to change matters haven't always helped
@arnold-hall thank you for the extra details. If we assume an average of 3 selections found a day in that hour, then we'd be looking at around 10 selections in a losing sequence would make you uncomfortable. This would mean a long-term strike rate of 50% or higher.
There would still be the possibility to get longer downswings where you have a losing streak followed by a couple of winners and then hit by another losing streak. However, if we bankroll correctly they should be no problem. We can also offset this by having a slightly larger bankroll than someone who was less risk adverse might consider.
To hit a 50% strike rate or higher, we either need to be looking at low odds horses, or possibly placing 80/20 bets. Dutch would also be possible, but I think 80/20 may be better in your situation as in the place portion of the bet we would be aiming to stay just above break-even or better, and then this would be punctuated by higher profits on the win portion of the bets. In effect we'd be using the place portion as the saver to make a small profit, but primarily to keep our strike rate high and our losing streaks down, whilst waiting for the wins to come in.
Does that sound like it's an approach you'd be comfortable with? If so then we'll start looking into a strategy, if not let me know what adjustments would suit you and we can make them and then get into the strategy.
That sounds good to me
Excellent, I'll be back tomorrow with a strategy outline