Bill's 4-Point Meth...
 
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Bill Seymour
(@billseymour46)
Active Member
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 6
12/02/2020 6:49 pm  

Hi Michael

I make no apologies for the lack of brevity of what follows as I believe it will help me and perhaps others in the longer term. My staking levels are modest and my daily outlay is up to £30. Whilst I keep records of each day’s betting I don’t calculate ROI or Strike Rate etc but can revisit if necessary.

I have 8 bookmaker accounts.

1) What type of bet do you prefer? Back, Lay, Place, Each Way, Dutch, 80/20 etc.

My main preference is for backing rather than laying and with my preferred number of runners (see 4 below) I usually back my selections ew in multiples up to Lucky 31s with bookies who offer BOG. With my modest stakes and preference for multiples betting, I don’t use Dutchingor 80/20.

I had a spell of backing place doubles through Pete Gibson, figuring that he would have done all the work in assessing value place bets. I paid for this service and had I followed his selections and betting strategy religiously,  I would have been well down. Happily after several losing days, I used his 3 daily place doubles as a base from which to select 4 horses which I  then backed in a place Yankee each time. Over the course of one week I had one full house and one losing day. The selections dried up at the start of the year but because I was well up on my initial outlay I decided not to seek a refund.

A similar episode occurred with Colin Sampson Racing and again his selections dried up at the start of this year. Briefly, there were 3 or 4 selections per day which were to be backed as singles. I followed this religiously and the returns were reasonably good. Once again, I adapted the system by betting an accas or trebles on the selections and on one occasion all 4 scored which produced a 450/1 return.  I did not increase my stakes after this success  but was sorry that the selections dried up.

Whilst I was using these two tipping services, I signed up for Monte Carlo Simulation and, therefore, Race Advisor. With all its many features which are constantly evolving, I’m finding it easier to be much more disciplined and I find the various tuition modules etc invaluable in providing a greater insight into betting. There’s still a great deal to learn!!

I have saved more than the Race Advisors monthly outlay since signing up in not following tipsters blindly and as I become more knowledgeable, there is every prospect of making my hobby much more enjoyable and profitable I the future.

2) How much time do you have available on days you bet to find selections?

I am retired so the amount of time I have available is controlled by me. That said, I don’t allow my hobby to take control and won’t have a bet simply for the sake of it . Much of my preliminary assessment is done the night before when I set up my notes ready for the following day’s racing.

 

For me this is a hobby and not a livelihood and I only stake what I can afford to lose so the downswing implications are not that relevant. That said, I do not include bookmakers among my donations to charity.

 

3) After how much time in a downswing do you start to become uncomfortable?

See comments above.

 

4) How many selections do you like, roughly, in a day?

I look for fields between 8 and 12 runners and have a preference for Handicaps in the three disciplines (Flat, NH & W). This means that on Saturdays the number of selections increases and there is usually TV racing to enjoy so I focus my assessments on those races which fit my criteria before applying them to  non-televised races.

 

I follow two or three tipsters who provide free tips and compare their selections against Race Advisor cards, Form Ratings and Horse Race Database Solutions. This gives me a wide cross Hisection with which to compare particularly when there is more than on selection per race.

 

If you have any preference for specific races, then please also include these in your answer 🙂

 

Once you've posted your answers, I will recommend a strategy to start with. Take this strategy and start your own thread tracking your results and we can adapt it together.


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Forum 1
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1363
13/02/2020 7:45 pm  

Thank you for the very detailed answers Bill, that's brilliant. I've moved it into this thread so that we can keep track of it easily. Please keep all updates and any questions in this thread so we can develop it as easily as possible.

I will come back and give a full answer tomorrow when I've had some time to go through everything and digest it properly.


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Forum 1
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1363
14/02/2020 3:27 pm  

I've spent some time thinking about this Bill, particularly about the multiple betting, and have a question... Do you mind horses being short priced or do you focus on higher odds?


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Bill Seymour
(@billseymour46)
Active Member
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 6
14/02/2020 5:03 pm  

I don’t just concentrate on outsiders and am happy to consider short priced horses. Anything which is odds on, however, is usually a no no. If for example I have 4 selections which are in the 2/1 to 6/1 range, I’m more likely to put them in a win lucky 15 with an ew acca.  If there were three short priced horses and one with odds greater than 6/1 the net would be a win L15, an ew single on the longer priced horse and an ew acca. 

My selections for this type of bet are based on Form Ratings top rated horse in fields of 8-12 where the top rated horse’s last 3 runs have resulted in an improving score. For example below is the 1.40 Fakenham which shows Ted Bach as being top rated. 

Fri 14th Feb 2020 1.40 Fakenham (10 runners)
Easton College Equine Diploma Students Selling Handicap Hurdle
Class 5, 2m½f , Soft, 4yo+, Win: £4265
No   Horse   Age   LR   2LR   3LR   SPD   HRS   FRN   Odds  
4   Ted Bach (IRE)   9   69   68   67   56   7   269   5/2  
9   Flanagans Field (IRE)   12   63   63   39   61   8   235   6/1  
5   Outrath (IRE)   10   44   24   81   67   5   224   4/1  
3   Hurricane Rita (FR)   10   25   37   74   57   16   212   7/1  
7   Booborowie (IRE)   7   25   41   87   50   3   206   9/2  
6   By Rail   6   64   36   24   54   8   188   16/1  
1   Sellingallthetime (IRE)   9   51   45   17   60   3   180   16/1  
2   Bridgets Cross   7   16   26   60   56   0   159   12/1  
8   Global Thrill   11   47   25   19   61   5   157   20/1  
10   Cryogenics (IRE)   6   17   55   17   55   0   145   33/1

My assessment is then compared with Horse Race Base Solutions and my notes then look as follows:-

HHD Ted Bach 1.40 Fakenham (10) FR1 269 HRB1 3.50 MCS3.

Ted Bach has previously won over the distance in a Handicap Hurdle (HH). He is top rated by Form Ratings (FR) with a score of 269. As these ratings appear the night before, I ignore the Odds column. HRB denotes the score calculated by Horse Race Base with that morning’s latest odds. MCS is from the Monte Carlo Simulation.  I do this for each selection and then sort by the number of runners. 

Ted Bach was 4th, sadly. 

Hope this helps.  

 


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(@michael-clarke)
Prominent Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 780
15/02/2020 12:30 am  

Always surprises me when people will not back odds on horses as statistically these provide a better AE than odds against. I am currently running a strategy based on odds on horses which is proving very successful although early days.

In the last week or so there have been 27 winners from 29 selections. This includes the last 14 all being successful at cumulative odds of 1,400 to 1.


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Bill Seymour
(@billseymour46)
Active Member
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 6
15/02/2020 6:50 am  

@michael-clarke Thanks Michael 

 


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(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1363
17/02/2020 5:32 pm  

Thanks for the details Bill. I can't comment on how non-RA factors may work, which will make it quite hard for me to give advice on this particular approach. Are you happy for me to look at this just using RA factors?

FWIW I would agree with @michael-clarke regarding odds-on selections.


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Bill Seymour
(@billseymour46)
Active Member
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 6
18/02/2020 8:42 am  

@admin Hi Michael yes happy for you to look at this with RA factors only. I’ve taken Michael Clarke’s comments on board too.

 


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Forum 1
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1363
19/02/2020 6:47 pm  

@billseymour46 great, let's start by finding similar factors. Are the LR, 2LR and 3LR some sort of form score for the past three races?

I assume SPD is a speed rating?

What is HRS and FRN?

 


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Bill Seymour
(@billseymour46)
Active Member
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 6
19/02/2020 8:19 pm  

Hi Michael answers as follows:-

This is the rating for how well a horse has performed in previous races.

LR: Last Race

2LR: Last 2 Races

3LR: Last 3 Races

 

SPD is the speed rating based on the most recent races for each horse, weighted so that recent speedy performances earn more points than those which were a while ago.

 

HRS stands for “Horse Race Score” and represents how well a horse has run in race scenarios most similar to the one it is in taking into account factors such as; the jockey, the trainer, distance, when last run etc.

 

FRN stands for “Form Ratings Number” and it is our main rating. It takes into account the most factors which are are all weighted to give us the strongest overall rating.


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Forum 1
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1363
20/02/2020 11:53 am  

@billseymour46 thank you for the details. With that in mind we could replace them as follows:

FRN with PR Odds

HRS with PFP

SPD with ACSPCL

Cst10 and Frm Imprv. could replace the last 3 ratings, but if we want separate ones for each race then we could use the PFPPLr, PFPPLr2, PFPPLr3 and PFPPLr4

How are you currently using the ratings, are you doing a manual analysis or is it looking for the top rated in as many ratings as possible etc.?

 


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Bill Seymour
(@billseymour46)
Active Member
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 6
26/02/2020 7:06 am  

@admin

Hi Michael thanks for your reply and forgive me for not getting back to you quickly.  I’ve been away for a couple of days but back now. 

I extract the top rated FRN where LR, 2LR and 3LR show an increasing trend eg on Saturday last week, Dubai Warrior was top rated FRN and its LR ratings were 106 (LR), 99 (2LR) and 82 (3LR). Thus it would be a contender. I apply this to UK Race meetings only and exclude Ireland. There were two other contenders last Saturday, Batchelor Boy (7.30 Chelmsford) and Verne Castle (8.00 Chelmsford)

Each day’s contenders are then further researched to include other factors like jockey form, trainer form and whether the contender previously won over course and distance.

If it’s possible to use PFPPLr, PFPPLr2, PFPPLr3 and PFPPLr4 instead then this would save me some work. How do I go about building a race card to incorporate these factors and also ACSPCL.

The attached XL file shows the results of this strategy for February. I did not back every selection but am happy with my returns, especially Bolt N Brown which was top rated on 5 February and which I backed at 100/1.

Hope all this helps. 

Best

Bill

 


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Forum 1
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1363
26/02/2020 12:19 pm  

@billseymour46 I've attached the spreadsheet for you.

 


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Forum 1
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1363
26/02/2020 12:23 pm  

@billseymour46 a 30% bankroll growth is something to be very happy about 😀

This all makes sense. You can use the PFPLr ratings and PFP in exactly the same way. The first thing to do is to create your custom race card and then track this approach on paper using these ratings against the one you're currently using and see how it performs. 

To create your custom race card please go to Settings and select Add New. You can then type in the search box the name of the ratings to get them to show up, press the + sign to add them, and re-order them as to how you want them to display.

You can see how to do this in the video number five at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/training/

Please let me know when you're done and up and running, and maybe you'd post a walk-through of your approach using the PFP ratings this Saturday so I can see the thought process behind it?

 


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