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Carl Newbury
(@carlnewbury72)
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13/02/2020 8:38 am  

1 tinkering with dutching at the moment normally win/place 

2 not a lot of time during the day so have to try to make selections the night before so a couple of hours 

3 about 15-20 losses on the spin gets me nervy

4 around 20 a day (including Dutches) 


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
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Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1251
14/02/2020 7:29 pm  

Thank you for the answers Carl. The ability to cope with fifteen to twenty losses in a row is excellent, this means we can look for any approach that has a 30% strike rate or higher.

As you are already testing a dutching strategy, let's focus on the win/place side of things 🙂

Am I right in thinking that you have a preference for All Weather? Or is that something I imagined you said.


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Carl Newbury
(@carlnewbury72)
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Posts: 383
14/02/2020 8:34 pm  

Hi Michael 

still trying to find a good angle for all weather but it’s definitely the direction I want to be moving in 


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
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Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1251
17/02/2020 5:05 pm  

@carlnewbury72 great. Let's start by doing this:

Focus only on AW sprints up to six furlongs.

Concentrate on Standard going only.

Open the PR Odds and eliminate any horse that's not in the Potentials column, highlight the others as possible selections by clicking just above the horses name and changing the row green.

Check the odds, and any that are in the top 5 in the market bring back in but don't highlight in green.

Any horses which have odds of over 30.00 and are Potentials also eliminate.

Go to the Speed Graphs and remove any of the horses you just eliminated.

Chang the Speed Graph dynamic filter to All Weather and a max distance of 1450 yards. 

We want to take note of two things:

1) The horses which are declining and the ones which are improving. This can be done roughly by looking at whether the lines are heading up or down recently. The rest will be staying still.

2) Take a note at the speed figure in brackets next to the horse, this is the average speed over the conditions set in the dynamic filter, the higher the better. Look for the point where there is a big gap between two horses (comparatively), and then make a note of all the horses above that gap.

Any horses that are declining mark as a concern.

Any horses that are improving mark as a positive.

The horses above the gap mark as another positive.

Now head back to the race card and remove green highlight for all horses except those which have at least one positive and were a potential in the PR Odds. Usually two or three.

For these runners do a brief check of history to make sure they've competed on the current race conditions.

If they do they become possibles to add to the dutch.

Any horses that you brought back in because of their odds, now is the time to check their history to see how they have performed over similar conditions. If it's indicated that the horse can be competitive then add it into your dutch.

Track the results on this for a little bit and then we'll make further adjustments.

 


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Carl Newbury
(@carlnewbury72)
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Posts: 383
18/02/2020 8:14 am  

Only 1 today 

southwell 7.00  Astro jakk  /  saaheq


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Carl Newbury
(@carlnewbury72)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 383
19/02/2020 4:21 am  

Kempton

7.30  el hombre / last page

 

Newcastle

4.50  tathmeen / fendale / alsvinder


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Carl Newbury
(@carlnewbury72)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 383
20/02/2020 12:03 pm  

Chelmsford

5.30  time to reason

6.00  excellent George / fen breeze

 

Southwell

3.20  red stripes / young tiger


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Carl Newbury
(@carlnewbury72)
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Posts: 383
21/02/2020 12:44 pm  

Dundalk

8.30  aloysius lilius

 

Lingfield

4.00  chocco star / sir hector

4.30  Vincenzo coccotti

5.00  hot hot hot


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Carl Newbury
(@carlnewbury72)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 383
22/02/2020 10:47 am  

Chelmsford

7.30  batchelor boy / waddat / time to strike

8.00  verne castle / you’re cool


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