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David Mayger
(@david-mayger)
Active Member
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 6
24/01/2020 11:27 am  

Hello everyone. Are the default ratings randomly chosen or are they the most popular? If not. What are the most popular ratings to have on the racecards? I like place betting so what is Place Alchemy? I'm open to help on two strategies. I'm looking to back winners above 2.0 with a strike rate above 30% for a particular staking plan that I use. I also have a compounding staking software for the place markets, a good profit can be made for a modest initial stake but for this to happen, the first three runners must place. There are five cycles. After three consecutive winners you remain in profit regardless of the next two results. Complete the full cycle of five winners and you are really in the money. Any help on the afore mentioned subjects will be gratefully received. Thanks, Dave.


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1251
25/01/2020 1:29 pm  

Hi David, great to have you in the forum 🙂

The default ratings are chosen to provide the most comprehensive overview of a horse in as few ratings as possible. Place Alchemy is a place betting method, with specific ratings to use in it, so I am sure it will suit you well when it becomes available in your members area.

Looking at your strategy, I have a couple of questions.

Backing winners above 2.0, does that mean you are looking to bet horses to place, who have odds above 2.00 in the win market or place market? How many selections a day are you looking for? Do you have a selection process you are currently using?

How does the compounding software work? We may be able to figure a good way of using it for you.

I would also recommend watching the first webinar in your Webinars section at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/webinars/ , you can also access this from your dashboard menu. The webinar is called: Discover The 3-Step Strategy That Wins 90 Of Your Bets & Doubles Your Stakes

And it shows one of the methods I use for place betting. It's the same approach John has adapted in another thread as well, and is a great starting point for place betting. The focus is on finding odds-on horses that win 70%+ of the time, it sounds like you'd prefer higher odds horses to place. But we can certainly adapt it to suit that, the principles are the same, what we're looking for is to choose slightly different horses. If you'd like to adapt that to suit please let me know and I'll happily help you.


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David Mayger
(@david-mayger)
Active Member
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 6
26/01/2020 5:09 pm  

@admin

Hello Michael. Many thanks for your swift reply. I know that you're busy. The no runners below 2.0 rule is for backing using, shock horror, a progressive staking calculator. An Excel spreadsheet that a friend built for me. At the touch of a button it changes to a level stakes win/loss visual aid without having to clear contents and re-enter. Anyway, Michael, the no runners below 2.0 is because otherwise the recovery stakes start to get a bit high. Every race (with a few exceptions). Is included and  bet in time order. I usually shun races  with a field above twelve runners, too many horses without form and most races below class 5. The idea is that when a satisfactory profit has been made, you stop.

 As for the compounding system using the place markets, although you could you use odds on favourites or a combination of placers/favourites The most reliable selections are below 2.0. The compounding system involves five sequences. After sequence three, if all successful, you are in a no lose profit scenario. Complete a run of five winners/placers, and an excellent profit from a small outlay can be made. The sales page for Compound Magic Pro will explain it all and better than I could.

 Obviously I have just started to experiment with your software. I checked ever race yesterday (25.01.20). And across the PR odds, the VDW odds, the RR odds, The Monte Carlo Simulator, using my best guess at a selection, and the Top Probability, I could find no obvious pattern. They all have their individual merits. A lot of winners, not from all races that I looked at, were supported by being in the top four CPR.

 That's it Michael. I need to know which filter or filters would be best for a 25-30% strike rate at good odds for backing and which filter or filters would be best for short odds placers/favourites for a 75% or greater strike rate. I know the answers are somewhere in your fantastic software. I will look at the video that you mentioned tomorrow

 Many thanks, Dave

 

 

 


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Alex Bradley
(@alex-bradley)
Trusted Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 65
26/01/2020 5:29 pm  

Hi David

I know using the top 3 pr odds has gave winners 56 %. Also read the systematic dutching thread where he was only dutching the top 3 in the market with AW sprints and was getting a strike rate so far of over 70%.


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AndrewP
(@andrewp)
Reputable Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 333
27/01/2020 11:20 am  

shock horror, a progressive staking calculator

I'll say nothing. 🙂 

when a satisfactory profit has been made, you stop

And if a loss is made you carry on?

The sales page for Compound Magic Pro will explain it all and better than I could

I think the long-term losses will say more. 🙂 


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1251
27/01/2020 1:20 pm  

As you say, each tool has it's own merits, and can be use on it's own or in conjunction with the others.

Finding 25%-30% winners is very different to finding a profit. For example, the 5278 CFR rating will find the winner 52% to 78% of the time from the top four rated horses, race condition dependent.

But finding winners with a certain strike rate is very different from making a long-term profit.

And the long-term profit is definitely what you want to focus on.

I'd definitely watch the webinar I mentioned for your place approach, I think this will suit you very well as it involves a high level of placed horses, and my staking strategy also uses a compounding effect.

I would also recommend watching the other instant strategies, and choosing the one that suits you the best. 

Whichever ones you choose, start a thread in the forum for each, and post your daily selections. This helps to keep you on point when you first start using the strategies. Then we can ask questions, and help you adapt them to best suit your needs.

Personally I wouldn't recommend using staking plans until you have a profitable strategy, however if this is something you want to do, then run results for flat staking alongside the results from the compound staking, that way they can be compared. It will also mean any adjustment to the strategy can be done based on the flat stakes results, which will give a clearer picture of the individual selection performance.


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David Mayger
(@david-mayger)
Active Member
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 6
27/01/2020 3:28 pm  

@admin

Good advice as usual. I have acted it on it already. I watched the webinar that you suggested and taking your live Monte Carlo demonstration and looking into the contenders history. I studied two races.I found the winners in the 14.15 Kelso and the 14.45 Kelso. As you said, Michael, less is more and the old methods that I use are a bit hit and miss and it is time to ditch them. Regarding the place betting strategy and posting the selections into the Forum daily, I will play around with your software for the rest of today, formulate a selection method tomorrow and hopefully start posting runners that  I think will be placers on Wednesday.

All the best, Dave.


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David Mayger
(@david-mayger)
Active Member
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 6
27/01/2020 3:33 pm  

Oh, by the way. In the 14.45 at Kelso, the Monte Carlo Simulator got the first four in the right order. Truly stunning!!!!!


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AndrewP
(@andrewp)
Reputable Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 333
27/01/2020 5:18 pm  

In the 14.45 at Kelso, the Monte Carlo Simulator got the first four in the right order

The market did even better,

1st - favourite

2nd - second favourite

3rd - third favourite

4th - fourth favourite

5th - fifth favourite

6th - sixth favourite

7th - seventh favourite

🙂 🙂 🙂 

 


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1251
27/01/2020 8:47 pm  
Posted by: @david-mayger

@admin

Good advice as usual. I have acted it on it already. I watched the webinar that you suggested and taking your live Monte Carlo demonstration and looking into the contenders history. I studied two races.I found the winners in the 14.15 Kelso and the 14.45 Kelso. As you said, Michael, less is more and the old methods that I use are a bit hit and miss and it is time to ditch them. Regarding the place betting strategy and posting the selections into the Forum daily, I will play around with your software for the rest of today, formulate a selection method tomorrow and hopefully start posting runners that  I think will be placers on Wednesday.

All the best, Dave.

Excellent, I shall look forward to it 🙂


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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
Honorable Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 732
27/01/2020 11:50 pm  

@andrewp

I must admit I haven't found any ratings that are better than the market ! 

 


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David Mayger
(@david-mayger)
Active Member
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 6
28/01/2020 9:48 am  

@michael-clarke

I totally agree. The trick is in identifying the steamers that will go on to win in the right race types though. That's where other ratings come in to play.


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AndrewP
(@andrewp)
Reputable Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 333
29/01/2020 12:33 am  

The final SP (BSP) is uncannily accurate overall both in terms of rank order and percentage chance (odds). However, as David points out, the journey there is what provides the betting opportunities.

Starting with various forecast SPs and recording the market at intervals from overnight to the off shows how rarely the early picture reflects the final SP. Often the final favourite isn't clear until the last 10 minutes. In effect nobody predicts the complete rank order and runner chances accurately. The skill is in spotting enough overlays and backing them above the eventual SP.

I often wish there was more discussion about pricing and less about winner finding. Success is generally about beating SP.


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David Mayger
(@david-mayger)
Active Member
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 6
29/01/2020 12:01 pm  

@andrewp

Hello Andrew. You are right of course. I used to use software that tracked the type of runners and prices that you refer to. This particular software  however, did not offer any ratings within but checking top stats elsewhere did reveal some 'dead certs' whose odds did shrink in the final minutes before the off. 

 Unfortunately, checking other sites for top stats was time consuming. I'm hoping that the range of excellent ratings at Race Advisor, together with the market move up and down arrows will point me in the right direction. That will be the basis for today's experiment. Like you, I believe that the market is the best rating, but I just like to see my final selections backed by rock solid ratings. Any ideas?


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1251
29/01/2020 12:08 pm  
Posted by: @andrewp

Success is generally about beating SP.

I was say it's pretty much totally about that 🙂


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