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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
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Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1233
08/02/2020 1:17 pm  

I've been going through some of our old content, and came across a method of building finding selections that I haven't written about in a while. I thought that if there was interest from anybody, we could look at using Impact Values, or A/E ratios, to find selections then we could look at building an approach together in this thread.

Leave a post if you're interested, and we can get started.


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jeffrey rees
(@w841mak64)
Estimable Member
Joined: 9 months ago
Posts: 166
08/02/2020 1:49 pm  

Sounds good I use AE & Chi in building the trends shortlist


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Alex Bradley
(@alex-bradley)
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Posts: 64
08/02/2020 9:31 pm  

Would love to play and learn:)


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 593
09/02/2020 8:53 am  

Would like to contribute what I can but mainly with an L Plate


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1233
09/02/2020 9:45 pm  

Wonderful, let's see what we can build 🙂 Our mad house has just calmed down a bit, so thought I would do a quick post now, but will continue in more detail next week.

I like to break things down for myself into the simplest steps possible. This would involve:

1) Determining which factors are most predictive in our race conditions

2) Considering whether we should weight the importance of the factors

3) Combining the factors to create a selection process

I will be looking at doing step one using A/E ratios, we will then raise the chosen factors to a power to weight it, and finally combine them to score the field and find selections.


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colin smalley
(@colinsmalley)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 3
10/02/2020 8:43 am  

Yes, very interested in A/E, but not sure which factors to use for best, so any help is appreciated,

 


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1233
11/02/2020 12:57 pm  

I'm going to run this thread on All Weather sprints on Standard ground over 6 furlongs (1320 yards) or less. I'll add one two yards extra to this to account for any slight variation in distance.

We have 13,736 horses in the database that meet this criteria. The A/E is based on Betfair SP.

With this information we can start looking at ratings which are likely to be the most predictive.

Here are some of the ratings I use in these types of races, just focusing on the top four ranked:

SHorAvG

Rank 1: A/E 0.95 (14% SR)

Rank 2: A/E 1.08 (14% SR)

Rank 3: A/E 1.04 (12% SR)

Rank 4: A/E 0.92 (10% SR)

5278 CFR

Rank 1: A/E 1.13 (24% SR)

Rank 2: A/E 0.95 (16% SR)

Rank 3: A/E 1.07 (15% SR)

Rank 4: A/E 0.99 (11% SR)

PFP

Rank 1: A/E 1.04 (18% SR)

Rank 2: A/E 1.10 (17% SR)

Rank 3: A/E 1.08 (14% SR)

Rank 4: A/E 0.94 (11% SR)

SP RANK (CONTROL SET)

Rank 1: A/E 1.05 (33% SR)

Rank 2: A/E 1.02 (19% SR)

Rank 3: A/E 0.98 (13% SR)

Rank 4: A/E 1.03 (10% SR)

This is a good start, but before we move on are there any other factors anybody would like me to add? I'll add another two or three 🙂

This post was modified 5 days ago by Michael Wilding

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AndrewP
(@andrewp)
Reputable Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 333
11/02/2020 2:22 pm  

are there any other factors anybody would like me to add?

As a 'control' it would be good to know what the A/E figures are for each rank in the market Michael. 


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MICHAEL CLARKE
(@michael-clarke)
Honorable Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 732
11/02/2020 11:39 pm  

This was an approach that I adapted in my process for handicap chases. I analysed all the factors and then sorted them by highest AE.

I eventually gave up because the ratings on the day were often different when they were exported at a later date. Has this issues now been sorted ?


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Paul Robinson
(@paul-robinson-2)
Eminent Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 21
12/02/2020 9:44 am  

Hi Michael. Since you are using the AW and sprints what about a speed rating?


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
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Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1233
12/02/2020 10:00 am  
Posted by: @andrewp

are there any other factors anybody would like me to add?

As a 'control' it would be good to know what the A/E figures are for each rank in the market Michael. 

Just confirming that you mean the A/E for market ranks (1st, 2nd etc.) under the race conditions?


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1233
12/02/2020 10:03 am  

@michael-clarke yes, we now have our quality control scripts in place and we've been corrected any issues as we've been alerted to them. However, there is more work to do, but all the quality control is aimed to be finished within the next eight to twelve weeks including a complete database and scripting upgrade, this will be finished with a complete re-run on the new database to make sure that all historic figures are accurate.

 


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1233
12/02/2020 10:04 am  
Posted by: @paul-robinson-2

Hi Michael. Since you are using the AW and sprints what about a speed rating?

I've got the speed rating on going, but certainly could look at another, which one were you thinking?


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AndrewP
(@andrewp)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 333
12/02/2020 10:22 am  

Just confirming that you mean the A/E for market ranks (1st, 2nd etc.) under the race conditions?

Yes, that's right Michael, the A/E for favourite, second favourites etc.


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1233
13/02/2020 10:43 am  

The SP control set has been added, and I've copied them below. Happy to add another one or two more factors. I will choose a couple more myself if there are no preferences 🙂

SP RANK (CONTROL SET)

Rank 1: A/E 1.05 (33% SR)

Rank 2: A/E 1.02 (19% SR)

Rank 3: A/E 0.98 (13% SR)

Rank 4: A/E 1.03 (10% SR)


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