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(@cdhamley_uk)
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Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 20
14/09/2020 10:48 am  

Morning all,

I have recently joined Race Advisor and I am starting to use Foundational Strategy 5 to make my selections. I always find that the best way to learn is to share thoughts and ideas with others. Therefore if anyone else is using strategy 5 and feels it will be useful I will start to share my thought processes each day. and we can use this forum to discuss and hopefully improve our selections.

Cheers

 

Chris


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(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2413
14/09/2020 10:03 pm  

Welcome to the family @cdhamley_uk 🙂

Posted by: @cdhamley_uk

I always find that the best way to learn is to share thoughts and ideas with others.

Just yes, I couldn't agree more!

I can't speak for anybody else, but I would find it useful. I like to see how others are using the Foundational Strategies and adaptations, I'm still learning every day as well.

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(@michael-clarke)
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Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 1081
15/09/2020 1:08 am  

@mikeywilding

I have had an initial look at this Chris.

The AE has been reasonably consistent over the last 6 years, with a low of 1.01 in 2017 and a high of 1.06 in 2015. The strike rate at 17% is less than that which has been quoted.

A note of caution, October has been a poor month, with an AE of 0.99.

Also, GB tracks have performed a lot better than Ireland. Irish tracks have an AE of 0.93.

The cut-off for the SP has been 28/1, in fact those at odds of 100/30 or less have an AE of 1.07, the remainder up to 28/1 have an AE of 0.98.

I will do more analysis to see if I can produce an alternative strategy.


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(@cdhamley_uk)
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Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 20
15/09/2020 6:46 am  

@michael-clarke

Thanks for this. If you could provide any info on how you are doing this analysis please, it would be appreciated

 

I will continue with this strategy until otherwise though as it did identify 3 winners yesterday and the majority of those who didn't winwere easily identified as poor picks, from either the speed graphs or Monte Carlo simulations


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(@cdhamley_uk)
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Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 20
15/09/2020 8:31 am  

Here are my thoughts on today's races at Kempton....

 

16:30 - Astapor is the only one left.Looks very good on the simulation, but there is little speed data. Over the distance a number of other horses look stronger though, Jaffa the gaffa being the strongest. No bet placed

17:05 - too many contenders were left and too little data to make a bet

19:10 - Beat the Breeze and Calm Down were the contenders but did not score well on the simulation. There was also little on the speed graphs so no bet

19:40 - Vixen does not score great on the simulation or look great on the speed graphs. Limaro prospect scores well on VDW and simulation but not great on speed graphs. No bet placed

20:10 - musree'dorsay is left. Scores well on the simulation and is also up there on the speed graphs so a bet was made at 11/2.

 

All other races at Kempton had no contenders. I will let you know how i get on.

 


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(@michael-clarke)
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15/09/2020 1:05 pm  
Posted by: @cdhamley_uk

If you could provide any info on how you are doing this analysis please, it would be appreciated

I have a fairly complicated spreadsheet on Excel which analyses each rating and selects the most profitable selections.

The problem with a lot of this sort of analysis is that what has happened in the past often doesn't happen in the future, I think the expression is "reverting to the mean".

Also any successful strategy will soon be discovered and the odds will shorten. A successful strategy often has a short shelf life so you need to be searching for new strategies all the time.

I think Michael's claim that these are "the only strategies you ever need for horse racing success" is a good marketing ploy but unfortunately betting on horses is not as simple as that.

 


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(@cdhamley_uk)
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Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 20
15/09/2020 1:38 pm  

@michael-clarke

Thanks I was looking at setting up something similar potentially in SAS, this way I can run it and update the strategy as and when required


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(@andrewp)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 489
15/09/2020 7:17 pm  

...any successful strategy will soon be discovered and the odds will shorten. A successful strategy often has a short shelf life...

Generally, I think this is simply randomness playing out. The longer you play the more likely you are to encounter that sequence of odds and results that reduces your bank significantly. 'Black swan' events occur. Twenty-three consecutive even money losers has occurred.

When a killer sequence happens very early we accept it as a system that went belly up. When it happens late on we think something else must be at work but it's probably just randomness.

 


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(@michael-clarke)
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Joined: 5 years ago
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16/09/2020 1:29 am  

You could be right. It is difficult to know if a system has stopped being effective or, as you say, it is just a random set of results.

My each way system did actually lose money over a 12 month period. Normally I would have then abandoned it but because I was still happy with the logic behind it I persevered and the profits returned.

I think some systems do have a shelf life, one example was to follow the 1st 4 in the Cheltenham bumper the following season. I think this became well known and hence the prices subsequently dropped.


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