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francois
(@zuitie)
Active Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 6
05/06/2020 8:48 am  

1. 80/20

2. 24/7

3. 5 losers

4.2 bets per day

 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1894
05/06/2020 10:34 am  

@zuitie thank you for your answers, and welcome to the community. I've made this thread to put everything to do with your strategy in as we go through the process.

The maximum 5 losers in a row means we are looking for an approach which needs to find winners around 75% or more of the time.

With the amount of time you have available, I would recommend we look at using the Horse Histories Strategies from https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/instant-strategies/ as your base approach.

Please could you watch that video and then come back to me with your thoughts on it, if you like the general approach, if there's anything you're not comfortable with etc.?

We would need to determine the race conditions that you're going to focus on in order to limit the number of races to be considered for analysis.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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francois
(@zuitie)
Active Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 6
05/06/2020 2:12 pm  

No problem with the approach.

The MC Sim looks like a lot of fun --- what will the best strategy be to use it.


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1894
07/06/2020 8:12 pm  

@zuitie great. We're going to use the MC to confirm contenders found using the horse history. Initially we want to begin by specifying the race conditions we're going to focus on. Do you have any preferences? I recommend focusing on those which aren't too extreme initially.

Then we're going to use the horse history approach. This should leave you with a few contenders in a race. On occasion there won't be any contenders, that's fine just move to the next race.

With these contenders we want them to be in the top four of the Monte Carlo simulation. 

I suggest we start by getting you to analyse a few races at Aldermist, our LikeReal racing platform, and post your analysis here so we can take a look in detail at how you're reading the histories of horses. From there we can work on this process, and then get you to do a few more races with adjustments in place. We'll repeat this process a few times until the results start to become stable, at which point we can start looking at moving testing to live racing 🙂

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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francois
(@zuitie)
Active Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 6
08/06/2020 7:51 am  

Hi Michael

Please excuse my English it's is my second language.

I worked through your videos and really enjoyed it.

Think I should concentrate on sprints. (Up to mile?)
I got good results by combining pr odds strategy with sprint races.


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1894
08/06/2020 11:51 am  

@zuitie your English seems absolutely fine to me 🙂

Great to see you've chosen sprints, one of my favourite types of races. Initially I would actually suggest concentrating on races up to 6 furlongs. This will reduce the number of opportunities in live racing, but you can still practice at Aldermist, our LikeReal Racing platform. The reason for this suggestion is that when you get up to seven furlongs you are beginning to leave the pure sprint distance and some stamina comes into it, when you hit a mile it starts to have a significant impact.

In order to focus purely on sprints, and that has a lot if benefits, it's better to stay up to 6 furlongs, and get that profitable, then create a new strategy for middle distance.

Since you've already started using the Monte Carlo Simulator and PR Odds, let's continue with that. If you could outline how you're using them, so I know your starting point to advise later. Then run through five races (live or at Aldermist) here with your analysis, selections and results. I will then be able to make some adjustments to what you're doing. We'll repeat this process until we have a solid method, it could be just one or two rounds or a few more, and then we'll need to get more results in before making any more adjustments .

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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francois
(@zuitie)
Active Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 6
08/06/2020 2:04 pm  

Steps that I follow.

1. Sprint races ( 6 f ) As suggested.

2. PR Odds

    Probability

    Potencials

    Contenters

3. BF Odds

4. 5278 CFR

5. Best Speedrating

6. PFP Score

7. MC Sim

 

 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1894
09/06/2020 10:17 am  

@zuitie great, I'll look forward to seeing your thoughts on the first few races so I can help adapt the approach with you.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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francois
(@zuitie)
Active Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 6
10/06/2020 5:43 pm  

Hi Michael

I've identified 3 races for today.( Handicap sprints )

Wolverhampton race 1 and 2.

Kempton race 7

Wolverhampton R1 

Horse nr 3 Batchelor Boy.--- PR Odds rank 1

                                         Probability 30.57% rank 1

                                         BF Odds rank 1

                                         5278 CFR rank 1

                                         Speed rank highest

                                         PFP rank 1

                                         MC Sim rank 1

Wolverhampton R2

Horse nr 2 Puchita --- PR Odds rank 4

                                Probability 19.55% rank 2

                                BF Odds rank 5

                                5278 CFR rank 1

                                Speed rank highest

                                PFP rank 2

                                MC Sim rank 1

Kempton R7

Horse nr 1 Fizzy Feet --- PR Odds rank 1

                                    Probability 18.97% rank 2

                                    BF Odds rank 2

                                    5278 CFR rank 1

                                    Speed rank highest

                                    PFP rank 1

                                    MC Sim rank 1

Let me know what you think.

 

 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1894
08/07/2020 11:00 am  

@zuitie I am very sorry, I seemed to have completely missed this post! How is the approach going so far?

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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francois
(@zuitie)
Active Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 6
08/07/2020 8:40 pm  

Hi Michael

It went well for a week and then al the way "south". I made changes --- Same strategy but on novice and maiden races. I don't know if 8020 is the right betting approach I can not open Betfair account being from South Africa. Local bookies odds are lower.

Problem with 8020 --- my place % is very high but the 80% place odds do not cover the bet if horse place. Don't mind taking a small loss but need more winners to make up for small losses.

 I started to follow the betting just before race time ( Your In and Out ) approach. Specially if there's

money for the horse. 

 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1894
09/07/2020 11:30 am  

@zuitie could you share your stats for all the selections before you changed the approach please? Novices and Maidens behave very differently and we need to take a lot more account of the market.

If you're not covering the win portion of the bet when the horse places, then 80/20 may well not be the right bet type, we always want to at least break-even, otherwise it's better to go for the place. It may be place betting for this approach is a better method.

First thing is to check the selections and results and see if the downswing was within variance. 

Good to hear you're trying a new strategy as well. While you're practicing that lets see if we can get this one back up and running again.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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