Graham's 4-Point Dutch Plan
1) Back, E/W, dutch, any combination of these.
2) 4 hours
As many as fits the system
I use the Monte Carlo tool and generally find my strongest 3 are either all, two or one in the top 3 position in any completed race but I don't know how to capitalise on this.
I've decided to start splitting out the replies into their own threads so that I can keep tracking of them 🙂
If you're hitting one or more of your strongest contenders being in the top three positions, it sounds like you've got a good start here already Graham.
Wanting to keep your losing streaks to five or less means that you're going to need to achieve a strike rate of at least 70%, and probably a little bit higher.
That would mean I'd suggest forgetting each-way and back bets and focus on dutching, place and 80/20 bets. As you have mentioned a preference for dutch betting it would make sense to focus on this bet type.
1) Have you got your past selections recorded with/without stats for dutch betting?
2) How are you betting them currently?
The >5 losses is not that important if the eventual outcome is positive.
on point 2 - shotgun approach ! a bit of this and a bit of that, basically to see what works better.
Point 1 - I have recorded all my selections, their positions, most of the odds (I find I'm adding data as I go along). Lately, I have been more discerning with regard to the odds.
I feel I should concentrate on one strategy until it either fails or succeeds, I just didn't know which strategy !
Please can you explain the 80/20 rules ?
Michael, thank you for clarifying my muddle !
Great. In terms of the >5 losers, if you are happy with a losing streak of eight, then this means a 60% strike rate, which is far easier to attain. To give you some idea, you could get a few of these back-to-back (potentially), meaning you could have a downswing into the twenty or thirty units and it could potentially stretch for three months, but hopefully wouldn't do so very often.
In regard to point one, that's great, would you mind sharing it? (you can send via support desk if you'd rather)
It would make sense to go from what you're already doing if you're finding that many strong horses.
On point two... we need to stop you doing that as soon as possible 😀 but that's what we're working on here 😉
An 80/20 stake is where you put 80% of your stake on the horse to place and 20% of the stake on the horse to win. As a general rule you only want to bet this when your place bet will leave you in an overall profit if the win bet loses.
Michael, what is the logic behind the 80/20 bet ?
@admin If I tell you that filters I use within the MC simulator this will show you what I find. I have been testing various patterns and have two cards which have been most successful. I will continue to experiment although it must be said that until now I have not specialised on individual races but on a generic, one-size-fits-all approach. I will be in touch...
I have an Open Office spreadsheet the contents of which are my collected stats, musings, ideas (both brilliant and stupid), puzzlements and moments of clarity. There are times where I haven't any stats and areas of what look to be nonsense.
Generally on each sheet in cell A1 or 2 I put the filter card I have used for that day. If it doesn't say anything its a continuation of the previous day. Sometimes I have used two different ones on the same day for comparison. ANYWAY, here it is. Get a beer, turn the phone off and pick the bones out of this !
P.S. I have a file pre 2020 as well.
Well done for keeping records, especially in a spreadsheet. Here's a tip though. If you can, keep a single sheet with a 'row per selection' and all other information (e.g. date, course, rank, odds, race type etc.) in separate fields (columns).
This will mean duplicating a lot of information across rows, (e.g. date, race) but it will make your data easier to analyse using filters or pivot tables. As it stands, your data would require a lot of work to analyse.
Keep date and time columns in recognised formats (e.g. 01/02/20, and 13:20) and avoid leading and trailing spaces in your selection names. These three fields can then be merged to produce a unique 'key' to pull in data from elsewhere if need be.
It's not a bad idea to extract as much data as possible from exported race cards, you can always hide or filter column information you don't want to see. It's much harder to add it later.
Because you have set out your data in 'row per race' format, it's difficult to include runner specific information. In 'row per runner' format you can include runner and race specific data albeit that the latter will be duplicated across several rows (easy enough with copy & paste).
@michael-clarke it's a low-risk way of betting, the aim is that you are effectively hedging your win bet. You can make a profit of the place portion, but if you can break-even at the place portion then you will make a good profit when the win does come in.
Very interesting. I am assuming that the three strongest are the three strongest from the simulations?
I can see that you've got stakes in some of the tabs, is it possible to get a summary of those results stats for this approach please?
I think possibly just one piece of extra information recorded could enable a slight tightening and. adjustment of the rules, but it depends on the current performance.
I have only just started recording the stakes in the spreadsheet and at the moment there probably isn't enough to show any trend but I am now being more diligent and capturing all that I work out.
Yes, my strongest three come from MC simulations.
Is it possible for you to see the make up of my MC cards or do you want me to send you a breakdown ? You may be able to see where the 'extra' data would help.
I also have a spreadsheet showing how my 'systems' have performed at courses. There are no dates and it only shows a percentage of the 1st's, 2nd's and 3rd's out of all the possible places in the races.
I.E No of races * 3 e.g. 7 races = 21 positions
number of my selections in the 21 positions
e.g. total places 7*3=21 number of my selections = 14 % = 66.6
Some courses appear to be more fruitful than others although I realise this is not necessarily the case.
If you let me know what the race card names are I can take a look at them, but at the moment, if they're finding this percentage of winners, I wouldn't be recommending making any adjustments.
In terms of the recording of bets, I would agree with @andrewp If you put them onto a single sheet with all data for a horse in one row, there will be a lot of duplicated data, but it will make it much easier to run analysis on them later. You can include a column for Course, which will also allow analysis of the courses as well.
Let's get a few weeks of data into a spreadsheet like that, along with your stakes, and then we can take a look at the results and take it from there with any adjustments that may be necessary.
If you need any help with the spreadsheet just shout 🙂
Hello again, are you able to send me the spreadsheet file I sent to you, please ?
I have had a problem and lost some data and need it to continue to analyse.
@wowpartnergs do you mean the one in this post: https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/community/horse-racing/grahams-4-point-dutch-plan/#post-9500
I've removed your email address from the last post to prevent anybody spamming you.