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Carl Newbury
(@carlnewbury72)
Honorable Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 594
29/03/2020 9:23 am  

Morning all 

in this time of no racing just thought it would be a good idea to try to create new cards to try on the virtual race system that has been built for us 

any ideas what ratings to start with for chase , hurdles , flat , all weather 

probably best directed to Michael 


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Carl Newbury
(@carlnewbury72)
Honorable Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 594
29/03/2020 4:31 pm  

Normally always start with 

5278

DSLGR

sometimes go with 

vdw form 

pfp

hrs win %

 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1651
29/03/2020 8:28 pm  

Happy to create new cards with you @carlnewbury72, but you can also use existing cards or test existing strategies for more data. The races behave like real races, and all the data we have on real races is also available on all races at Aldermist. Anything that works on Aldermist will behave the same way on a real race 🙂

Would you like me to create some new cards with you? (got a blog post coming out tomorrow I think you'll like 😉 )

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Carl Newbury
(@carlnewbury72)
Honorable Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 594
30/03/2020 8:42 am  

would be appreciated Michael not quite sure which ratings to go for apart for form

5278 , PFP , DSLGR , GRL10

as for speed , distance , going not sure


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1651
30/03/2020 12:53 pm  

@carlnewbury72 how about we begin with these, but add in PFPU95 and PFPL95. We can add in speed etc. later (if required).

The PFP rating, hopefully you have read this blog post ( https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/insane-horse-racing-profits-from-1-rating/), start with the DiffTp version and look for horses within 1 point of the top rated, including the top rated, on Flat racing. This should result in you finding quite a few horses.

With this as the base point, consider whether the horse sits in the top four 5278 CFR rating. Consider them stronger if they do.

Personally I prefer to remove horses who's DSLGR isn't recent. However, you may wish to mark this as a negative as opposed to completely remove them from a possible bet.

Finally, if the selection has had amongst the strongest GRL10, consider this an extra strength. This information should affect your stake size 🙂

Keep a track of these selections and results, but then with the PFPU95 and PFPL95, these show the range that we can be 95% confident the PFP rating will be in, although we expect it's most likely score to be the actual rating. Sometimes this range will be quite large, you can consider this to be less strong for the horse. A good way of this is to see how many horses PFPU95 overlap with your selections PFPL95. If there's a lot of them, this would indicate that the horse potentially is going to have a lot of competition in this race. You can use this straight away, or alternatively you could make notes in your tracking about your thoughts on this in each race and when you have enough data determine whether to start including this in your analysis or not.

 

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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