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(@jamesamiller51)
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13/02/2020 4:24 pm  

Hi Michael

1. Back and Dutch, although have been investigating with what I call flat 3 (the same stake across 3 horses to take advantage of higher odds winners when they happen).

2. +- an hour, but I like automation so am playing around with access databases using historical data to find trends. Am currently investigating Pr Contenders for example.

3. I am doing a lot of paper trading with some bets thrown in, so I tend to go on gut feel. Quite a few of my "tinkerings" have not lasted very long at all (a few days), some are ongoing whilst being tweaked.

4. Don't mind really, but probably 5 to 10.


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(@mikeywilding)
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14/02/2020 8:28 pm  

Hey James, thank you for the answers. I have put your answers into this thread so it's easy to keep track of everything, please keep me posted and ask any questions in here 🙂

I like the idea of flat betting across all three. I may change this to use a Kelly approach so that you're staking more on the shorter odds horses which will have a higher chance of winning.

Automation and databases, a man like myself 😀

What has caused you to throw out anything in just a few days? It's almost impossible to know if something is going to work that quickly unless you mean a method you are building on historical data.

Let's look at a method which uses a Kelly staking across three selections, and aim to hit 50%+ of all the races. 

I need to get some stats and will come back to you with an approach 🙂

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(@jamesamiller51)
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14/02/2020 10:38 pm  

Hi Michael, thanks very much for your reply. I like the sound of Kelly staking so will be interested to see how that works.

My investigations into PR Contenders are continuing and this is an approach I am going to persist with as there is certainly some merit in it. Of course the trick is to find the right races to place bets on, as always! In the last 9 days I have been selectively choosing races and following the results of backing the 3 PR Contenders in each race. This has yielded 77 points of profit at a strike rate of just over 50% - this includes 3 high odds winners which has skewed things somewhat, but nice none the less! Historically, I think I am right in saying that if you backed the 3 PR Contenders in every race in the last 2 years where the odds of the lowest odds PR Contender was over 3, you would be +- 5000 points up. If this is correct, interestingly that 5000 points came in the first 9 months of 2018, since then it has been pretty flat. I am currently checking that and then am going to break it down by numbers of runners to see if that is a way of being more selective with the races I choose. 

My Access database tells me the races each day where the PR Contenders, amongst other ratings, have historically been most successful. With regards to trends like that, I am wondering what your thoughts are regarding "reverting to the mean", as I am sure that some people would say that you should choose races where trends were least successful as they are the ones statistically that have to improve. For the moment I am ignoring this, but am wondering if this is something that you have come across before?

Thanks very much.

 

 

 


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(@mikeywilding)
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15/02/2020 11:54 am  

Right, so if we start with All Weather races that are seven furlongs or less, the 5278 CFR rating finds the winner in it's top four 62% of the time, with an A/E of 1.00.

Horses that are ranked between 2 and 4 for RnkSHorPro find the winner 32% of the time and have an A/E of 1.04.

Runners who have a DSLGR of less than 60 win 52% of all races for a 1.01 A/E.

Finally, the horses with a RnkApre in the top four win 52% of all horses and an A/E of 0.98. However the top ranked win 17% and have an A/E of 1.04

With these pieces of information we should be able to build out a profitable approach.

Let's start with a basic approach of just combining this information. So that we have 5278 CFR top four AND ranked between two and four for RnkSHorPro AND has a DSLGR of less than 60 AND is in the top four for RnkApre.

The good news is, during 2019 this would have found you winners in 11% of races, had a 1.10 A/E, made a +77 unit profit for an 8% ROI.

However, I wouldn't suggest blindly backing these. Apart from anything else, you're going to want a higher strike rate than 11%, for a losing streak of 10 we're going to need at least a 40% strike rate and probably more like 50%. So we've got some work to do there.

The first step though, is to use this information, and cross check a horses history to see how they've performed under previous conditions to try and remove any that look weak. You could also use market odds to remove potentially weak runners as well, or the Monte Carlo, PR Odds or Speed Graphs tools. But we want to remove weak runners from these selections. Let's trial that for a couple of weeks with paper trades and see how we're going, we can then adapt it from there 🙂

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(@jamesamiller51)
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15/02/2020 1:48 pm  

Ok, thanks very much for that. I will start monitoring from today and post the results. 3 horses fit the criteria today, so will see what happens.

 


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(@mikeywilding)
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17/02/2020 7:32 pm  
Posted by: @jamesamiller51

Ok, thanks very much for that. I will start monitoring from today and post the results. 3 horses fit the criteria today, so will see what happens.

 

Excellent, if you want to put the selections in here each day that would be great, otherwise keep us posted with the results.

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(@jamesamiller51)
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20/02/2020 11:14 am  

First 5 days results as follows:

14 horses fitted the criteria, 3 winners (s/r 21.43%) -1.11 points, 3 placed (s/r 42.86%) -0.07 points.

3 horses fit criteria today:

Equidae and Three C's (Southwell 1420)
Time to Reason (Chelmsford 1730)

 


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(@mikeywilding)
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20/02/2020 12:19 pm  

@jamesamiller51 great, thank you.

 

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(@jamesamiller51)
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21/02/2020 11:16 am  

A winner, a place and a loser yesterday, so 4 winners (s/r 23.53%, points -0.57), 4 places (s/r 47.06%, points +0.18) so far. 4 selections today:

Calder Prince (Lingfield 1530)
Mews House (Lingfield 1700)
Munfallet (Dundalk 1930)
Silk Cravat (Dundalk 2000)

 

 


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(@jamesamiller51)
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23/02/2020 3:15 pm  

1 winner, 3 losers from the 4 on Friday.
2 winners and 1 loser from 3 selections yesterday.
No selections today.

7 winners (s/r 29.17%, points 1.32) 4 places (s/r 45.83%, points -2.63) so far


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(@jamesamiller51)
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27/02/2020 11:42 am  

Monday: 1 win and 1 place from 6 selections.
Tuesday: No selections
Wednesday: 2 wins from 3 selections, including a winner at odds of 21.4

So, 10 wins so far (S/R 30.3%, points 19.41), 5 Placed (S/R 45.45%, Points -1.23)

 

 


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(@mikeywilding)
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28/02/2020 12:15 pm  

@jamesamiller51 so far so good 🙂

 

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(@jamesamiller51)
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28/02/2020 12:18 pm  

Another win and a loss yesterday, so 11 wins (s/r 31.43, points 21.81), 5 placed (s/r 45.71%, points -1.55). 5 selections today over 3 races. 


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(@mikeywilding)
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24/03/2020 2:52 pm  

@jamesamiller51 I hope you're well and safe, just checking in how this approach is going?

 

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(@jamesamiller51)
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04/08/2020 12:09 pm  

Hi Michael

Have not updated this for a looooong time, so thought I had better do so! There have not been a huge amount of selections since the restart for obvious reasons but the overall results so far are  are these:

30 winners at a s/r of 25.21% points +22.33, 29 Placed at a s/r of 48.76% points -13.81.

Will continue monitoring and update again sometime soon!


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