Ladymanshawn's 4-Po...
 
Notifications
Clear all

Ladymanshawn's 4-Point Strategy  

Page 1 / 6
  RSS

Sean Ladyman
(@ladymansean)
Trusted Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 57
31/05/2020 8:36 pm  

Hi Michael,

I prefer Lay betting, up to 10 selections daily, odds range max 4.0. At present it takes me around 40mins to profile a complete race (I generally look at 8-10 runner races) and usually stick to less competitive racing. With this in mind I have couple hours daily to devote to form study. Downswings, wouldn't want to encounter more than 6, though it depends on the odds, lower the odds the more losses I would expect.


Quote
Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
02/06/2020 11:37 am  

Hi @ladymansean thank you for the answers. I've made this thread for your strategy, please post any questions, analysis, selections and results in here so we can keep it in one thread and use it to make adaptations as we go along.

Great to see another layer 🙂 A downswing of 6 means a strike rate of 70% or higher, which should be attainable.

Is the approach you're currently using successful and you're looking for a new one to add to the portfolio, or are you looking to take the approach you're currently using and improve on it?

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


ReplyQuote
Sean Ladyman
(@ladymansean)
Trusted Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 57
02/06/2020 4:53 pm  

Hi Michael,

Thanks for the reply, I am looking for an entirely new and fresh strategy which will save some time on selections. My own selections methodologies are usually quite time intensive. I liked the 'MC Bonus' strategy, but would prefer more selections. I look at the top rated few runners - then look for one that is exposed on going, class, poor jockey/trainer form etc, but this does take a lot of time per race. 

Really appreciate any assistance


ReplyQuote
Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
03/06/2020 7:40 pm  

@ladymansean no problem. If you like the MC, then I would suggest this as a base starting point. Use the MC simulation to find a race where one of the top three favourites in the market, as long as odds are within a range you're comfortable with, are a significant gap away from being the best in the results. Confirm this with the PR Odds Probability.

Once you've found one of these horses use the speed graphs to make sure the horse is either level performance but at a level which is not better than the average, or declining. Do not consider a horse that is improving. I show how to do this in the Speed Graphs Lay Strategy video at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/instant-strategies/

From there I would personally confirm that the horse hasn't got a speciality preference over race type, distance and ground, before considering it as a lay bet.

Let's start with that as a base, have a few test runs, post up your analysis here, and let's start looking at some results. You can also practice this on Aldermist risk-free very rapidly.

Once we start to get some results we can begin to tweak the approach if necessary. Don't focus too much on speed at the beginning, speeding it up will be an easier issue once we've got the approach working for you 🙂

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


ReplyQuote
Sean Ladyman
(@ladymansean)
Trusted Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 57
04/06/2020 5:11 pm  

I picked the 18:15 at Newcastle, with the selection 'Sea Of Marmoon. She has little form to go on, unraced on the surface, no placings. Against me is an in form trainer, but jockey stats not much to write home about. No. 2 on the CFR rating is a concern. But she is well down on the MC chart.

Personally I don't think she will outperform Mabre. The odds are not low enough for me at present, though she is running at fav status. A bit more form, or a less in form trainer (although the RTF is quite low), and I would accept the liability of 3.85. Just not enough evidence for my liking to take this one on, but I will add to my spreadsheet for reference.


ReplyQuote
Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
04/06/2020 8:55 pm  
Posted by: @ladymansean

I picked the 18:15 at Newcastle, with the selection 'Sea Of Marmoon. She has little form to go on, unraced on the surface, no placings. Against me is an in form trainer, but jockey stats not much to write home about. No. 2 on the CFR rating is a concern. But she is well down on the MC chart.

Personally I don't think she will outperform Mabre. The odds are not low enough for me at present, though she is running at fav status. A bit more form, or a less in form trainer (although the RTF is quite low), and I would accept the liability of 3.85. Just not enough evidence for my liking to take this one on, but I will add to my spreadsheet for reference.

This is a solid analysis, and the race was incredibly close, with only about 1.5 lengths between the first four. 

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


ReplyQuote
Sean Ladyman
(@ladymansean)
Trusted Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 57
05/06/2020 7:12 am  

I'm going to look at races where the PR odds for top 2/3 runners are very close, then look for the top runner with a weakness that should lead to a place position.

Newmarket 13:50 6f good/firm flat turf

Swindler PR Odds 5.63 Monte Carlo 7.27% not high on speed ratings
Dazzling Dan PR Odds 5.18 Monte Carlo 12.20% not high on speed ratings
Summerghand 26.55 MC 10% highest s/r
Gulliver PR Odds 16.33 MC 10.6% not high on speed ratings

Summerghand looks strongest on class, going, distance
Dazzling Dan and Swindler look to have good recent form, but not in same class
Gulliver is a threat with good recent form in class, dist and has previously won on same going
For me Swindler is the lay bet.


ReplyQuote
Sean Ladyman
(@ladymansean)
Trusted Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 57
05/06/2020 7:36 pm  

For sat 6th. 

Newcastle 13:30

Fortamour is early fav
Merchant Of Venice is my fav to win

Merchant is improving on speed graphs
Fortamour is being ridden by a apprentice jockey (an anomaly I love looking for), the trainer is also not in form.

I'm not looking deeper into this, as I am aiming for a fast selection process - although I think I got lucky with this being the first race to look at.

I am now looking at h'cap races, within class 4 - 6 only. No maiden/novice etc.


ReplyQuote
Sean Ladyman
(@ladymansean)
Trusted Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 57
06/06/2020 8:07 pm  

Sun 7th 

17:00 Haydock

Going to go with an unexposed horse in this one, that is currently fav by some degree

Variyann

Don't know the reason for the low odds except that it's too early for the market - so early days, will keep an eye on.

Conversly Toro Dorado looks the stronger runner


ReplyQuote
Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
07/06/2020 8:33 pm  
Posted by: @ladymansean

I'm going to look at races where the PR odds for top 2/3 runners are very close, then look for the top runner with a weakness that should lead to a place position.

Newmarket 13:50 6f good/firm flat turf

Swindler PR Odds 5.63 Monte Carlo 7.27% not high on speed ratings
Dazzling Dan PR Odds 5.18 Monte Carlo 12.20% not high on speed ratings
Summerghand 26.55 MC 10% highest s/r
Gulliver PR Odds 16.33 MC 10.6% not high on speed ratings

Summerghand looks strongest on class, going, distance
Dazzling Dan and Swindler look to have good recent form, but not in same class
Gulliver is a threat with good recent form in class, dist and has previously won on same going
For me Swindler is the lay bet.

This was a good call.

Posted by: @ladymansean

For sat 6th. 

Newcastle 13:30

Fortamour is early fav
Merchant Of Venice is my fav to win

Merchant is improving on speed graphs
Fortamour is being ridden by a apprentice jockey (an anomaly I love looking for), the trainer is also not in form.

I'm not looking deeper into this, as I am aiming for a fast selection process - although I think I got lucky with this being the first race to look at.

I am now looking at h'cap races, within class 4 - 6 only. No maiden/novice etc.

Got the lay again here. It looks like Merchant Of Venice had a very bad start in this race, which could have caused the poorer performance.

Posted by: @ladymansean

Sun 7th 

17:00 Haydock

Going to go with an unexposed horse in this one, that is currently fav by some degree

Variyann

Don't know the reason for the low odds except that it's too early for the market - so early days, will keep an eye on.

Conversly Toro Dorado looks the stronger runner

It's worth going back into this race to see if you could have read it differently, often you won't have even knowing the result, which is fine. But the occasions where you can see markers for the horse performing well can be very useful.

As none of the runners were really exposed in this race, it's worth mentioning that in races like this the market is usually a very strong indicator and you should only go against it with very strong evidence to.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


ReplyQuote
Sean Ladyman
(@ladymansean)
Trusted Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 57
07/06/2020 9:17 pm  

Absolutely - should have left it alone, just as well I'm 'paper trading' these. Wish I could have foreseen 'Little India's run though...could have made a fortune lol.


ReplyQuote
Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
08/06/2020 11:40 am  
Posted by: @ladymansean

Wish I could have foreseen 'Little India's run though...could have made a fortune lol.

Me too!

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


ReplyQuote
Sean Ladyman
(@ladymansean)
Trusted Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 57
10/06/2020 12:29 am  

14:50 Pontefract - Lion Tower


ReplyQuote
Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
10/06/2020 3:19 pm  
Posted by: @ladymansean

14:50 Pontefract - Lion Tower

Excellent 🙂

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


ReplyQuote
Sean Ladyman
(@ladymansean)
Trusted Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 57
11/06/2020 7:30 am  

2:10 Newbury - Global Hope


ReplyQuote
Page 1 / 6
Share:
Back to top button
Close
Close