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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Prominent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 760
14/01/2020 10:43 am  

Today I decided to try out linking the Monte Carlo simulator with some of the Angles I have with various trainers.

I did the initial sort on the Trainer Angles last night and had the following selections:

Exeter 13:25 Christopher Robin
Doncaster 14:10 Cotswold Way
Exeter 14:30 Zen Master
Doncaster 14:40 Le Grand Fromage
Exeter 15:05 Whitehotchillifili
Doncaster 15:15 Financial Outcome
Exeter 15:40 Ask Me Early
Chelmsford 19:00 Good Ole Winnie

Now Exeter has been abandoned so there wer only 4 left to test. Cotswold Way finished top on the Simulator confirming the selection, Le Grand Fromage & Good Ole Winnie were only ever going to be e/w picks but the results I got for Financial Outcome were the real surprise - it came next to last so I thought why not use the oucome of the Simulator for a bet and I've decided to lay Financial Outcome now there are only 5 runners so I'm not expecting anything earth shattering it is 3-1 favourite on Unibet but instead I've laid it at 1/4 on SkyBet - only small stakes so nothing to write home about but perhaps something I can look into again.

Fingers Crossed


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AndrewP
(@andrewp)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 446
14/01/2020 6:46 pm  

I've laid it at 1/4 on SkyBet

I didn't know it was possible to lay horses with SkyBet. How is this done (other than by backing all other horses in the race)?

 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2086
14/01/2020 10:56 pm  

@johnwaters1965 I moved this into it's own thread 🙂

What ratings are you using in the Monte Carlo Simulator?

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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Prominent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 760
15/01/2020 10:19 am  

@andrewp

Scroll down past the odds on the race and there is a list of Tabs past the To Place, Insure Bet and one of which is "Not to Win" Not sure what time before race start they appear


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Prominent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 760
15/01/2020 10:51 am  
Posted by: @admin

@johnwaters1965 I moved this into it's own thread 🙂

What ratings are you using in the Monte Carlo Simulator?

Michael

I was using the Standard Race Card with all selected and running 10000 Simulations.

Wasn't the best of introductions to using it but I'll try again today - I need to start using these tools that you've provided and become familiar with them all.


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Prominent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 760
15/01/2020 12:26 pm  

Here's the list I previewed last night:

Newbury 12:45 Aimee De Sivola
Newbury 13:45 Precious Cargo
Newbury 13:45 Moonlighter
Newbury 13:45 Vado Forte
Newbury 14:20 Fubar
Newbury 15:25 Samburu Shujaa
Newbury 15:25 Le Boizelo
Newbury 15:25 Indy Five
Wolverhampton 12:55 Nikolyeva
Plumpton 14:40 Morney Wing
Plumpton 14:40 Antony
Plumpton 14:40 Victors Serenade

Plumpton has gone so only 5 races to check:

12:45 Aimee De Sivola had readings of 6.48, 12.33%, 0.35, 61.67% the only cause for concern was Getaway Totherock with the 3rd figure 0.30

13:45 Precious Cargo 3.11, 30.80%, 0.59, 61.47% seems to lead across the board

Moonlighter 5.83, 16.73%, 0.87, 33.33%

Vado Forte 3.22, 29.53%, 1.89, 59.07% was clear second

 Champagne Platinum was marginally worse than Moonlighter.

14:20 Fubar 10.13, 9.13%, 0.64, 45.87% seems to 3rd or 4th ranked on all these scores - maybe an e/w bet?

15:25 Samburu Shujaa 7.58, 12.13%, 0.83, 49.07% pretty much 3rd on everything

Le Boizelo 5.68, 16.27%, 1.11, 65.53% is level on the first two scores with Not A Chance, sits in the middle on the third score and is first on the final score (Not A Chance was second)

Indy Five 11.37, 8.60%, 0.42, 34.27% is third worst on all scores except for the third where it is the lowest.

Wolverhampton 12:55 Nikolayeva 13.49, 6.80%, 1.51, 41.27% sits firmly in the middle of the runners on every score.

SO today looks like Aimee De Sivola & Le Boizelo to win (I've decided to bet both Precious Cargo & Vado Forte) and Fubar & Nikolayeva as e/w bets 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2086
15/01/2020 1:06 pm  
Posted by: @johnwaters1965

@andrewp

Scroll down past the odds on the race and there is a list of Tabs past the To Place, Insure Bet and one of which is "Not to Win" Not sure what time before race start they appear

Any questions on them please let me know 🙂

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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2086
15/01/2020 1:26 pm  

@johnwaters1965

Looking forward to following these.

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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Prominent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 760
16/01/2020 9:49 am  

Here are last nights previews.

Ludlow 12:50 Essenaitch
Wincanton 13:00 Never Learn
Ludlow 13:20 Hunting Percival
Wincanton 14:00 Oscars Moonshine
Ludlow 14:20 Night of Sin
Ludlow 14:55 Subway Surf
Market Rasen 15:20 Zen Master
Wincanton 15:40 Coningsby
Wincanton 15:40 Theligny
Wincanton 15:40 Christmas in April
Wincanton 15:40 Morney Wing
Wincanton 15:40 Moving in Style
Wincanton 15:40 Cyclop
Market Rasen 15:50 Madera Mist
Market Rasen 15:50 Petronella Manners
Ludlow 16:00 Riggs
Ludlow 16:00 You Name Him
Market Rasen 13:40 Floating Rock
Newcastle 17:00 Secret Smile

With Wincanton gone there are 9 Races I need to run the simulator on - I'll finish my other bets for the day and come back to running it.


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 760
16/01/2020 12:07 pm  

I'll start with the two races where I have multiple runners:

Market Rasen 3:50 Madera Mist 9.70, 9.73%, 0.48, 48.47% is 4th lowest on the first figure, 4th highest on the second, 2nd lowest on the third number and 4th highest on the final figure - again this horse is the favourite but doesn't scream pick me (particularly when Conas Taoi scored 75.80% in the final score) so maybe a lay? I've layed on Betfair at 5.0

Petronella Manners 17.45, 5.73%, 0.98, 28.80% There is only 1 higher on the first score, only 1 lower on the second score, is 6th out of 10 runners on the third score and there is only one lower on the fourth score - maybe just leave well enough alone?

Ludlow 4:00 Riggs 11.37, 5.53%, 0.70, 25.13% is 5th of 9 Runners on all scores except the third where there are only 3 higher.

You Name Him 14.22, 4.87%, 0.41, 22.00% is joint 3rd highest on the first, is 6th highest on the second, is 8th highest on the third and is 6th highest on the fourth score.

Nothing really outstanding on either runner there so I'll leave both alone and try and read up on the meanings of the scores in the training to refresh my memory.

Because my Tablet is so slow I'm going to leave the rest as is today and go either Win or each way on the rest (where there is only a single selection in each race).


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John Waters
(@johnwaters1965)
Prominent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 760
16/01/2020 9:21 pm  

Friday & Saturday I'm only paper trading these as I'm still in the testing stage. If I get home in time tomorrow I'll run the Monte Carlo Simulations but just in case here are the ones that my Trainer Angles have pulled out for tomorrow:

Chepstow 13:10 The Ogle Gogle Man
Chepstow 13:10 Adherence
Musselburgh 13:20 Animore
Musselburgh 15:30 Graystown
Chepstow 15:55 Bee Crossing
Musselburgh 13:55 Warendorf
Musselburgh 13:55 Mill Island
Newcastle 17:45 Raadea
Newcastle 17:45 Mountain Brave

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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2086
17/01/2020 12:40 pm  

Just catching up now after my marathon session going up to Scotland, driving back to London and then driving back to Cambridge 🙂

Loved the explanations yesterday. Got a good lay on Madera Mist, a good decision to leave alone on Petronella Manners and the 4pm at Ludlow.

Looking forward to following today.

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stuart atkinson
(@satkinson_uk)
Trusted Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 50
17/01/2020 3:45 pm  

Hi

.interesting thread... what ratings are you using in monte carlo??


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