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Monte Carlo Sims Percentages

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Forum 1
(@stephenuk23n)
Eminent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 27
Topic starter  

@mikeywilding

I have notice there a new % on the monte carlo simulation 


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Forum 2
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 12 years ago
Posts: 2712
 

I split this into a new topic so we don't hijack the other thread ūüôā

There aren't any percentages, the first one shows the horses overall win percent based on the simulation, and the second shows how many of it's paired simulations it won. Let me know if you'd like me to run through what paired simulations are ūüôā

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Forum 1
(@stephenuk23n)
Eminent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 27
Topic starter  

@mikeywilding 

Hi just late not doing to bad on the virtual  racing but when I go on the proper race card and try and get a 4 horse into a lucky 15 nothing  comes in or they get place I'm i doing anything wrong whats a good start point to get a lucky 15 


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Forum 2
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 12 years ago
Posts: 2712
 

How many have you done live versus the LikeReal Racing?

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Forum 1
(@stephenuk23n)
Eminent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 27
Topic starter  

@mikeywildingmikeywilding 

Only do 2 lucky 15 depending on the races but watch the video on foundation strategy 1 and set my card up how it said and pick a few with the contenders  which where the best see how this gose


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Forum 1
(@stephenuk23n)
Eminent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 27
Topic starter  

These the ones iam trying today foundation strategy 1

Party  rebel 2.53

Praised 3.23

Flying west 4.25

International law 8.30

Lucky 15 will let you know how I did 

 

 


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Forum 1
(@stephenuk23n)
Eminent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 27
Topic starter  

Absolutely terrible today sort the odds low to high get rid of the high odds 30 and 40 then look at pr odds eliminate the ones in red or do keep them in then do a monte on them and try find the or is there an orther way of doing driving me nuts 


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Forum 8
(@andrewp)
Honorable Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 551
 

Nothing wrong with those selections Stephen. The odds show the market expected between one and two to place and none to win. You managed one winner and two places. Staked correctly in the right bets you would have made 37% profit.

Horse Bet Betfair SP Chance Stake Won/Lost Profit/Loss
Party  rebel  Win 7.43 13% £1.30 Lost -£1.30
Party  rebel  Place 2.45 41% £4.10 Lost -£4.10
Praised Win 6.13 16% £1.60 Lost -£1.60
Praised Place 2.36 42% £4.20 Lost -£4.20
Flying west Win 4.8 21% £2.10 Won £7.82
Flying west Place 1.98 51% £5.10 Won £4.90
International law Win 14.71 7% £0.70 Lost -£0.70
International law Place 3.75 27% £2.70 Won £7.28
      218% £21.80   £8.09
            37.1%

The Lucky 15 turns your bet into a longshot by insisting you stake doubles, trebles and an accumulator all at the same stakes. Ditch it and stick to win and/or place bets using stakes based on the chance of the horse winning/placing based on its odds. 


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Forum 1
(@stephenuk23n)
Eminent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 27
Topic starter  

Whats the best race card to have 


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Forum 2
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 12 years ago
Posts: 2712
 

@stephenuk23n there is no best race card, we can make most race cards and ratings turn a profit. Starting with the Standard race card is absolutely fine. You shouldn't make changes based on a single days results, that would be a mistake.

Lucky15's aren't ideal bets, as @AndrewP has said, they turn normal selections into longshots. I appreciate that the appeal is getting a big winner with a small stake, but that also means they can take a lot to come in. There's a huge amount of interest in Lucky15's and I'm looking at a good way to play these with as low risk as possible, for fun bets.

However, I would also recommend sticking with win and place betting and using proportional stakes for your primary selections. As shown above, these selections would have made a good profit today, although again I would be waiting before making any further decisions. 

Why do you think the selections were terrible?

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Forum 1
(@stephenuk23n)
Eminent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 27
Topic starter  

Just frustrating u go through  the card  pick the best for the race and a 50 to one comes in lol so u saying  just do single  races or can do doubles be better and use the standard  race card 


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Forum 2
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 12 years ago
Posts: 2712
 

Yeah it is frustrating, unfortunately those 50/1's will come in and there's nothing we can do about it. 

The key thing to remember is that it doesn't mean the analysis was wrong. We can't always predict the winner, and that's frustrating, but fine because we don't need to in order to make a profit ūüôā

I would keep doing what you were doing and focus on using singles and place bets. Then structure your bet as @andrewp showed above, I can give a link to a blog post with it in more detail if you'd like it?, do this for the next 100 bets and see what the results are, this will show you if you have an edge on your bets. Based on the one day you had an advantage but didn't make a profit because of the way you bet it.

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Forum 1
(@stephenuk23n)
Eminent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 27
Topic starter  

@mikeywildingmikeywilding

ok thank for reply


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Forum 14
(@bloomfieldalf)
Eminent Member
Joined: 11 months ago
Posts: 45
 

@mikeywilding Michael would you please show the link to the blog post


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Forum 1
(@stephenuk23n)
Eminent Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 27
Topic starter  

@mikeywildingmikeywilding

went back on the standard  card add place this afternoon put 20 in my account  manged to get a double on the last 2 at wolverhampton tonight 1.50 stake each way so only 15 pound down at the min 5 pound in the kitty for tommrow would u just do handicap  and leave  fillis and maidan out 


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