Myths of Betting
 
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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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16/03/2020 11:51 am  

I agree with @andrewp and wouldn't be altering either but keeping a track of all the break-downs until I have at least a hundred selections in each of them, and then consider making adjustment decisions. Generally, in my experience, Irish racing behaves very differently, although I'm not sure why tbh, and I don't often bet on it because of that.


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(@michael-clarke)
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16/03/2020 3:09 pm  

I have analysed 4 years data for odds on selections and the conclusions are similar to the ones I have arrived at. Overall AE is 0.957 at SP.

GB = 0.962, Ireland = 0.940.

LTO 1 AE = 0.98.

Odds < 8/11 AE = 0.96, odds >= 8/11 AE = 0.95. Hopefully this indicates that the performance of these shorter priced horses will improve.

Days since last run < 14, AE = 1.003.

Interestingly March, April, May and June all have an AE of 0.94 so the next couple of months may be a bit tricky, March this year has been disappointing so far.

Chase races have an AE of 0.98, AW is 0.95.

Handicaps have an AE of 1.02, maidens 0.93.

 

 


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(@andrewp)
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16/03/2020 6:59 pm  

Thanks Michael.

It's a shame the A/E has fallen below 1, perhaps it will swing back over the next couple of hundred bets.

Plugging the selections into my formbook I can get some positive A/E figures with low Chi2 scores but the sample size drops considerably. E.g.

Days since last ran<=30 &

Best average handicap rating (unadjusted)

SR 34/44 = 77%

A/E 34/27 = 1.26

Chi2 = 2.9%

 

 

 


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(@michael-clarke)
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17/03/2020 2:21 pm  

I no longer subscribe to any form book or ratings so I am limited to the info I can pick up from odds-checker which is basically odds, number of runners, class and LTO.


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(@andrewp)
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18/03/2020 12:32 am  

There's also some free content on the Racing Post and Timeform sites on the day of racing Michael including their forecast odds. The difficulty is getting the data off the web pages in a format that can be processed easily. Personally, I'm lost without my electronic form book.


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(@michael-clarke)
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18/03/2020 3:03 pm  

Yep, I can scrape the info reasonably easily from odds-checker (albeit race by race). That's why my current systems are all based on odds.

To be honest this seems to be more profitable than when I used ratings and the form book for my selections.


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1396
19/03/2020 12:37 am  
Posted by: @michael-clarke

Yep, I can scrape the info reasonably easily from odds-checker (albeit race by race). That's why my current systems are all based on odds.

To be honest this seems to be more profitable than when I used ratings and the form book for my selections.

Whatever works for you. This doesn't surprise me that much considering your background in investing, which is market driven.


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(@michael-clarke)
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22/03/2020 7:03 pm  

A quiet week with only 6 selections but 4 winners have increased the bank to £73.

The overall AE for short priced favourites has increased to 1.02 from 253 selections.

Eliminating races with a high over-round leaves an AE of 1.10 from 124 selections.


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