Neil's 4-Point Strategy
I prefer backing horses but am open to any kind of bet. I am looking to solely utilise the betfair exchange for my bets.
I dont have a lot of time during the day but ideally would like to place bets the night before. Maybe an hour or 2 at most to study.
I like 1 or 2 selections per day usually at the top of the market and then I generally have a fun low stakes (life changing if it hits) multi on the weekend.
I really don't like losing runs, at around 15 I must admit I start doubting my process. Something Ive been aware of but something Ive never considered in relationship to how I place my bets.
I prefer flat and all weather racing.
Morning @nmwalsh71 I hope you had a good weekend. Thank you for your answers to the four questions, I have put them into this thread so that we have a dedicated space where you can ask any questions about it, put selections and results and build out this strategy.
In terms of bet types and losing runs, your strategy is going to need to have a minimum strike rate of 40%, this would mean you could expect at least one losing run of 14 or 15 each year (based on 1 to 2 bets per day). However it's still possible to get a losing streak of 8, followed by a winner, followed by a losing streak of 9, etc. So the downswing could still be longer than the one/two weeks a losing streak could last. Potentially your downswing could be a month or two.
Based on what you've said, I think you may be more comfortable aiming for a 50% or 60% strike rate, which means you can expect a losing streak of 10 or 8 a year (roughly).
This would mean that you can bet to win, but you'd be betting at low odds and probably some odds-on bets. Alternatively you could aim for 80/20, place or dutch betting instead to bring up the strike rate.
I think that the strategy Discover The 3-Step Strategy That Wins 90 Of Your Bets & Doubles Your Stakes at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/webinars/ may be a good approach for you to use as a base strategy.
Take a watch of the webinar, the strategy is the first 40 minutes or so. Although this is based on short place odds, we can adapt the approach for finding selections to bet 80/20 instead if you like the basis of the strategy. Let me know what you think, if you like the look of it we can adjust that approach, if not let me know what you didn't like and I'll suggest another starting approach.
Hi, thanks for your reply. Im taking my time (as theres no horse racing currently happening) just going through the training videos at present but will get back to you regarding your suggested strategy once I understand the software and what the numbers represent. There's lots to digest ( which is good)
@mikeywilding Ok, so its taken me about a week to go through the 18 vids in the training section and I had a go last night using the Monte Carlo simulator and Aldermist.
I'm blown away by the quality of content here and how it's designed. I've used a lot of software in the past but this is really something else.
Your suggestion of the 3 step strategy looks very appealing and tailored to my betting personality and will be something I'll be implementing once normal racing resumes.
@mikeywilding Im not really sure how to hone a process with such a high strike rate to be fair.
Is the 4% stake absolutely necessary for this approach to be profitable?
@nmwalsh71 if you start trialling the approach, put your selections and results here. We've got to see how it's performing for you straight out the box in terms of A/E, strike rate and profit. When there are enough selections this will allow me to help you adjust the methodology so you have an edge (unless you have an immediate edge using it). So all you need to do now is to start finding selections and posting them and their results here 🙂
It may take a few rounds of posting selections, adjusting the approach, posting selections etc. to get it working for you personally. That's perfectly normal.
The 4% stake isn't necessary, in fact during testing it's best to use flat stake for ease. We can look further into optimal staking for you once we've confirmed your edge and profit.
Quick question about the Monte Carlo simulator.....
Does the result of a run simulation change if you run it after the result of the actual race or does the simulator spit out the same result as a simulation prior to the race starting?
Thanks for your quick reply....thats very interesting....might put up a few selections the next couple of days in this thread.
Ok I'm going to have a stab at the Newmarket card tomorrow and I'm looking at the place markets on Betfair exchange and will put the prices that are currently available (although there is little liquidity at present)and a point stake if that's ok? Also, I would like to know if it would be possible to profit from taking price now and laying in running . Im not putting any actual money on these selections this is paper trading exercise at present. Im going to be working so will be unable to watch, plus I think there are more bets than I would actually do in reality as looking to take a more cautious approach but maybe looking to whittle down more profitable race types in future.
13:15 - Some Picture 1pt @5.0
13:50 - Total Commitment firstname.lastname@example.org
14:25 - Keystroke email@example.com
15:00 - Lord Tennyson firstname.lastname@example.org & Century Dream email@example.com
16:10 - Holy Kingdom 1pt @2.74
16:45 - Calm Down 1pt @4.7
17:20 - Astrogem firstname.lastname@example.org & Winter Halo 1pt@ 3.3
@nmwalsh71 I will be looking forward to following these. Absolutely put the current odds available, but make sure there's enough liquidity for you to be able to get matched. I'd suggest you also record the Betfair SP's.
There may well be an angle for trading in-running, but this will be very hard to test without actually following the races. You can do this using a bot and using paper-trading in it if you don't want to place the bets, and that would be able to run without you needing to be available.
However, I'd look to test what you're already looking into without the trading. The reason being that I think you're looking at the trading as a way to de-risk as opposed to being a preference type of betting, and there are other ways that it's possible to de-risk without needing to use trading, and in-running trading can cause other obstacles that need to be overcome.
Ok Michael appreciate the advice and your right I am trying to de risk and that may be an unnecessary hindrance. I should perhaps concentrate on attack rather than defend. I do think a few of my selections would've traded lower today as a few raced prominently but faded at the business end. I think tomorrow I'll try to be more selective.
So Friday there were 2 selections that made a miniscule profit with one non runner.
Saturdays cards Ive got 4 x 80/20 bets and 3 win bets. I'll settle at Betfair sp. Ive adjusted the bet types due to most of the bets being in the top of the market.
1pt Win bets
14:25 Newmarket - Queen Power
14:40 Newcastle - Withold
17:05 Newcastle - Longroom
20/80 win/ place
14:05 Newcastle - Aljari
15:00 Newmarket - Punctuation & Volkan Star
15:35 Newmarket - Kameko