Paul's 4-Point Method
Q1). Back, and 80/20.
Q2). Couple of hours in morning for daytime racing about an hour for evening racing weekends like to get it sorted as early as possible.
Q3). I like to keep it down to 20 percent of bank but I have gone over that at times.
Q4). I prefer 3 to 4 selections a day and hopefully not to close together as I do work weekday's
Dutching first two in betting 14:00 Leicester ran a few of Monte Carlo cards they came up tops in all also backed outsider of three in the 14:30 hopeing for winner in both but only doing small stakes
Hi Paul, I've just created your own thread here, please keep me updated and ask any questions in this thread 🙂
Thank you for your answers, let's get cracking...
You've got a good amount of time to find selections, which is great.
I have a couple more questions I'd like to clarify please...
1) When you say 20% of bankroll drawdown, could you also let me know what longest sequence of losing bets would you start to struggle with please?
2) Do you have a preference for race conditions? It sounds like you may already be focusing on specific sets of race conditions.
Are you also happy to dutch bet, or would you prefer to stick to backing or 80/20's? I usually find it's best to stick with one stake type initially for a strategy.
The stake size isn't important at the moment, small is actually better. We want to get you profitable, and then scale your bankroll against a profitable approach. If you use stakes which are too big then you quickly become uncomfortable with the size of losses. Even thought they're proportionate to stake size, you need to be familiar with the strategy and it's ups and downs to be comfortable with it.
Q1. I prefer backing and 80/20 whenI price for the place is no lower than 1.70
Q2. I only have about 2 to 3 hours a day on and off as I do work
Q3. I like to make a certain amount of profit a day I have a target and once reached I stop betting this amount is not very high as I use at least 9 bookmaking accounts so the target is split
Q4. I try to find 3 to 4 selections for the day normally first three in the betting and hopefully get at least one winner as I am looking for a target and hopefully get that target reached asap in the day I am trying to build the bank to get my target up to £20 a day from each betting account.
I hope you can help as I would like to cut down the amount of time I spend at the moment and hopefully when I get my target up to £20 a day with each betting account on a regular basis.
20/80 on Flannagan's Field first race
Win on Estrella star all targets reached
me done for the day
Let me know when you've had a chance to think on those two questions @paul-quennell-2
Q1). I would say 4 to 5 Losers on the trot as I am looking to reach a daily target which I am trying to increase and get it up to £25 to £30 a day from each betting account if I have a losing run I am splitting the loses up to recoup over the next week. At the moment I am looking for around £6 for each betting account.
Q2). I try to focus on non-handicap races but if I do get one that stands out to me then I will put it in my picks for the day
I will dutch bet as long as there is not an odds-on fav in my picks or if there is and I have 2 contenders I may do an 80 – 20 split on each horse or 75 – 25 or sometimes 70 -30 depending on prices.
14:15 Carlisle Sao Maxence 1.50 Targets reached
Sat 3 losers
Sun 1 loser 1 winner target reached
@paul-quennell-2 thank you, what is the process you're using for the current selections, and do you have a summary of the results to date?
I have 2 of my own race cards on Monte Carlo which must have one clear top contender with 70% or over to get my potential selections I then look at each horse to make sure it will go on same conditions and distance course would be a bonus.
I have only just started to keep a record of my results on this and it is only one of my betting accounts as I have said in the past I do work 5 days a week and I do not finish work until 8pm so by the time I get home and unwind eat I then get to update.
Results sheet attached I started with a bank of £200 with this account.
Could you tell me why 5278 CFR does not work on all races
also would of had 11/1 and 7/1 winners if taking top contender in my own two Monte Carlo cards tonight but am really trying hard to stop betting once I have reached days target
14:00 Muss Glorious Lady - Back
14:30 Muss I'm too Generous - 80/20 split
15:00 Muss Titus Bolt - 80/20
15:35 Muss Duke of Navan - Back
Target £6 - £7 each account
First one up target reached took 15/8
Great record keeping, maybe add a Notes section for notes on why you've chosen selections, these can be used later to improve the performance.
Now that you're tracking the results, let's get a few weeks of selections running and tracking and then take it from there based on the live results we're seeing.
If you can post the selections here each day, and the results along with the cumulative results we can keep an eye on it so we know where we're going in a couple of weeks.
We also want to get the A/E and Chi2 into your stats as well at some point. Let me know if you would like a pointer on those calculations.
Sorry it has taken time to get back to you but with the weather playing havoc with racing the last few weeks plus some work commitments I decided to take a break but I am hoping to get back for Monday but it may be another week from what I have seen in the racing post about next weeks racing, but yes I would like some pointers on A/E and Chi2 as I am not sure what they mean or how they would help
@paul-quennell-2 absolutely no problem, there's no rush, this process can be taken at your own pace. The first stage to understanding A/E and Chi2 is to read these two posts:
PIV is what the Americans call A/E, and it's where I first learned the method. It is on my list to update that post and change it from PIV to A/E.
Archie is another name for Chi2. It is slightly different in the way it is presented, but the effect is the same.
Am still trying to get my head around those two posts but have looked at a race today
15:50 Catterick Niven Won over trip, won at higher grade over further, goes on ground, only negatives Trainer and jockey both on 0%
Ringaringarosie Won on ground, Won over similar trip, won at this grade, Negative Jockey 0%
Would normally do even dutch to win certain amount but today will just have a couple £ on each.