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William Hamilton
(@positronic)
Noble Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 1288
12/02/2020 3:00 pm  
Posted by: @admin

If you'd like me to help you adapt and adjust our betting strategies to suit you personally, the very first thing to do is answer these four questions:


​1) What type of bet do you prefer? Back, Lay, Place, Each Way, Dutch, 80/20 etc.

​2) How much time do you have available on days you bet to find selections?

​3) After how much time in a downswing do you start to become uncomfortable?

​4) How many selections do you like, roughly, in a day?

If you have any preference for specific races, then please also include these in your answer 🙂

Once you've posted your answers, I will recommend a strategy to start with. Take this strategy and start your own thread tracking your results and we can adapt it together.

Hi Michael

1) Back and E/W for me although I am thinking of trying out dutching.

2) Normally have 1 to 2 hours

3) 2 months of consistent losses will get me tinkering 

4) As you know its not unusual for me to have about 4 selections per race meeting so Fridays and Saturday can get a bit hectic.

5) I generally try to avoid races with first time runners in them.

My current issue is I have no STOP / GO trigger in my selections which is why I end up with so many selections, If a horse generally looks a good sort looking at the stats I use I stick it on the list and if it at least places then I am happy with the selection choice. I did pick out a 100/1 winner last week with this current selection process but have bombed since LOL. 

Cheers

Will


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1233
13/02/2020 5:14 pm  

Thank you for the detailed answers Will. I've made this thread for us to keep everything in one place. Please keep me posted and ask any questions on this approach here.

It sounds like you have a good mindset for losing sequences. A high volume of selections can work really well, particularly when you have that mindset for losing sequences.

I think it would make sense for us to look at building out a high volume approach for you, as that seems to be what you prefer. These approaches generally work by having a much lower ROI which is more than made up for in volume and high turnover.

Dutching isn't usually ideal for this sort of approach, and I would suggest we look at backing or 80/20 bet types. Backing is usually best financially, but it can have some hefty losing streaks, so it may be best to start with an 80/20 bet type. Does that work for you?

Avoiding races with novices is a good way to go, due to the approach we'll be looking to build a strategy which allows you to use it over a large range of races. There's not currently anything in the members area like this that we can build on, so I'll probably need to record a few videos as we go along, and get your feedback on them.

Let me know your thoughts on the above, primarily the higher turnover model and 80/20 bet types.


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William Hamilton
(@positronic)
Noble Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 1288
14/02/2020 2:29 pm  

Sounds like a plan 😀 

As for the current selection process, I have deleted the recent tweaks and all other tweaks I have played with in the past few months and fixed it back to its original state that it was over a year ago, weirdly it was working but you start to think you can do better and so the tweaking begins 🤡 .

The 80/20 option could be a nice insurance policy version.


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1233
14/02/2020 4:35 pm  

Great 🙂 tweaking is good to a point, but often turns profitable strategies into losing ones. My personal rule is that if I'm making an average of 5% ROI or higher I don't tweak, I look at building out more strategies if I have time rather than break something that's working.

80/20 bets are one of my favourites, along with dutching, as it keeps the strike rate higher and reduces the volatility.

i think we want to start with quite a broad sweep of races for your strategy. Not looking at races where there's no (or little) history for the runners is a good idea. That still leaves a lot of races. I would suggest we also start by focusing on either sprint (7 furlong or less), middle distance or long distance. We can bring the others in later.

Which of those are you most comfortable with?


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William Hamilton
(@positronic)
Noble Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 1288
16/02/2020 2:48 pm  

8f to 20f is a nice spread


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Michael Wilding
(@admin)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1233
17/02/2020 7:37 pm  

@positronic okay let's go for the middle distance, although that's still a pretty big spread, there's quite a difference between a horse running 1 mile and running 2.5 miles. I would stick with between 1 mile and 2 miles.

I'd like to start with a process of using the Potentials from the PR Odds first. Take these horses and then use the Monte Carlo simulator, Standard race card for now, and put a star next to each horse that is in the top 50%+1 of the field for MC and a Potential for PR Odds. 

There will be quite a few.

This becomes the starting list.

From this point we want to start eliminating some, the first way to do this is to remove any with odds. over 30.00 and any who haven't had a good race in the last 365 days (this can be reduced to 180 days if not tight enough).

With the remaining horses we want to get an idea of which are the strongest. To do this we're going to use some ratings. Are there any which you're particularly fond of?

 


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William Hamilton
(@positronic)
Noble Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 1288
18/02/2020 10:41 am  

@admin Ok, I have always felt distance is an important factor so - SDPREF 

Most horses who have not run for over 3 months need a pipe opener so  - DSLR

I have always used the 5278 rating but not sure about continuing to use it ?

 


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