Positronic 4-Point Strategy
If you'd like me to help you adapt and adjust our betting strategies to suit you personally, the very first thing to do is answer these four questions:
1) What type of bet do you prefer? Back, Lay, Place, Each Way, Dutch, 80/20 etc.
2) How much time do you have available on days you bet to find selections?
3) After how much time in a downswing do you start to become uncomfortable?
4) How many selections do you like, roughly, in a day?
If you have any preference for specific races, then please also include these in your answer 🙂
Once you've posted your answers, I will recommend a strategy to start with. Take this strategy and start your own thread tracking your results and we can adapt it together.
1) Back and E/W for me although I am thinking of trying out dutching.
2) Normally have 1 to 2 hours
3) 2 months of consistent losses will get me tinkering
4) As you know its not unusual for me to have about 4 selections per race meeting so Fridays and Saturday can get a bit hectic.
5) I generally try to avoid races with first time runners in them.
My current issue is I have no STOP / GO trigger in my selections which is why I end up with so many selections, If a horse generally looks a good sort looking at the stats I use I stick it on the list and if it at least places then I am happy with the selection choice. I did pick out a 100/1 winner last week with this current selection process but have bombed since LOL.
Thank you for the detailed answers Will. I've made this thread for us to keep everything in one place. Please keep me posted and ask any questions on this approach here.
It sounds like you have a good mindset for losing sequences. A high volume of selections can work really well, particularly when you have that mindset for losing sequences.
I think it would make sense for us to look at building out a high volume approach for you, as that seems to be what you prefer. These approaches generally work by having a much lower ROI which is more than made up for in volume and high turnover.
Dutching isn't usually ideal for this sort of approach, and I would suggest we look at backing or 80/20 bet types. Backing is usually best financially, but it can have some hefty losing streaks, so it may be best to start with an 80/20 bet type. Does that work for you?
Avoiding races with novices is a good way to go, due to the approach we'll be looking to build a strategy which allows you to use it over a large range of races. There's not currently anything in the members area like this that we can build on, so I'll probably need to record a few videos as we go along, and get your feedback on them.
Let me know your thoughts on the above, primarily the higher turnover model and 80/20 bet types.
Sounds like a plan 😀
As for the current selection process, I have deleted the recent tweaks and all other tweaks I have played with in the past few months and fixed it back to its original state that it was over a year ago, weirdly it was working but you start to think you can do better and so the tweaking begins 🤡 .
The 80/20 option could be a nice insurance policy version.
Great 🙂 tweaking is good to a point, but often turns profitable strategies into losing ones. My personal rule is that if I'm making an average of 5% ROI or higher I don't tweak, I look at building out more strategies if I have time rather than break something that's working.
80/20 bets are one of my favourites, along with dutching, as it keeps the strike rate higher and reduces the volatility.
i think we want to start with quite a broad sweep of races for your strategy. Not looking at races where there's no (or little) history for the runners is a good idea. That still leaves a lot of races. I would suggest we also start by focusing on either sprint (7 furlong or less), middle distance or long distance. We can bring the others in later.
Which of those are you most comfortable with?
8f to 20f is a nice spread
@positronic okay let's go for the middle distance, although that's still a pretty big spread, there's quite a difference between a horse running 1 mile and running 2.5 miles. I would stick with between 1 mile and 2 miles.
I'd like to start with a process of using the Potentials from the PR Odds first. Take these horses and then use the Monte Carlo simulator, Standard race card for now, and put a star next to each horse that is in the top 50%+1 of the field for MC and a Potential for PR Odds.
There will be quite a few.
This becomes the starting list.
From this point we want to start eliminating some, the first way to do this is to remove any with odds. over 30.00 and any who haven't had a good race in the last 365 days (this can be reduced to 180 days if not tight enough).
With the remaining horses we want to get an idea of which are the strongest. To do this we're going to use some ratings. Are there any which you're particularly fond of?
@admin Ok, I have always felt distance is an important factor so - SDPREF
Most horses who have not run for over 3 months need a pipe opener so - DSLR
I have always used the 5278 rating but not sure about continuing to use it ?
Let's start with SDPREF, 5278, PR Odds, MCLSLLRTXT, PFP and DSLGR.
I would replace the DSLR with the DSLGR, this is a much more powerful factor, I usually recommend a longer timeframe, so something like 180 days, but it can depend on the race. For example if you're looking at horses at the beginning of a season you probably want this to be 365 days.
The 5278 CFR is definitely worth using, a very good field reducer.
The PFP is a form based rating, be wary of any horse that has a way higher score than any other horse in the race. This usually indicates a horse that was good and has massively dropped in performance and the trainer is trying to pick up some wins on it's way down. They usually have much higher odds than you would expect from the rating and have a very low win rate. Apart from this exception, the higher the better, and the base rate is 1500.
MCLSLLRTXT tells us if a horse is moving up or down in class based on earnings. It's very useful to get an idea if a horse should be performing well. Note that often a horse moving up in class, as long as the weight hasn't increased too much and conditions haven't changed too much, performs very well.
I'd start by using a quick reducer by focusing on Potentials from PR Odds and those that are also in the top four in an MC Simulation. From here award extra "points" to any horse that is also in the top four of 5278, suits the distance, has had a good race recently, and looks competitive in PFP.
That should give you a shortlist of between two and four, from here I always recommend a quick scan of the past results to confirm competitiveness in similar conditions.
Run that for a few weeks so we can record some results and then let's see where we're at 🙂
@admin So just to confirm, races 8f to 16f only then we are going to use the standard card for a MC Sim and tick all horses with 50 plus, then use a second card using the factors above to reduce the field and see if we have a selection. 🙂
@positronic yup, that pretty much sums it up. When I say 50%+1 that's of the field, so an eight runner race I'd be looking for the top five from MC and make a note of any that are also Potentials from PR Odds.
Ah! ok, I was working with only horses that hit 50% plus on the chance 😆
Saying that, long story short, I used this approach today came up with 10 selections and walked away with 7 points profit from 3 winners 😋
Ah! ok, I was working with only horses that hit 50% plus on the chance 😆
I thought you might have been 🙂 Although that's definitely another option. I didn't go for that because of the volume of bets you were looking for.
If you have the time, you can run both side-by-side and track the results at the same time.
A good day yesterday 😀
Unfortunately I dont have time to track both sets of numbers but my accidental interpretation seems to be working out 2 selections Friday no win but 5 selections yesterday and a 7 point profit 😀
@positronic great, will look forward to following the updates. When we have enough data we can look at it and make any decisions to go forwards.