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Psnug
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12/02/2020 9:57 am  

i use all types of bets but am tending now to use 80/20 bets more

 

i usually have 5 hours a day to find my bets

 

downswings do not overly concern me as I am confident that it will improve.  However, if after 3 weeks, I would start to feel less confident 

 

upto 25 per day dependent on what my research throws up


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Michael Wilding
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12/02/2020 10:12 am  
Posted by: @psnug

i use all types of bets but am tending now to use 80/20 bets more

 

i usually have 5 hours a day to find my bets

 

downswings do not overly concern me as I am confident that it will improve.  However, if after 3 weeks, I would start to feel less confident 

 

upto 25 per day dependent on what my research throws up

I like the 80/20 bet as well, it lowers risk but still gives the opportunity to get a nice profit if a higher odds horse wins.

It's great that you've got a fair amount of time to find selections, that opens up a lot of possibilities (which I'll come to in a moment)

A high turnover bettor, my preferred method when possible and if you have the mindset for it 🙂

Before I make a recommendation, I'd like to ask for a bit more clarification on the downswings. It sounds like you have a good mindset for them, however when you say after 3 weeks, do you have a percentage of bankroll downswing in mind? And can you give me a rough idea of how many losers in a sequence would start to set your teeth on edge please?


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Psnug
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12/02/2020 11:21 am  

Hi Michael

 

if my bankroll reduced by 40% on a losing streak that would set my teeth on edge also if 30 bets on the bounce lost, that would begin to make me more cautious


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Michael Wilding
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13/02/2020 2:40 pm  

@psnug I am moving all the answers to the four questions into their own threads so that I can keep track of them. Please use this thread to keep me updated and ask any questions in.

A 40% bankroll decrease, or 30 losing bets in a row, is going to allow you a big range of approaches, any strike rate 20% or higher should suit you, so make that the minimum strike rate you'll be happy with.

I'd also recommend a bankroll of 150 units to keep comfortably under the 40%, assuming you're not using a kelly based staking approach. This bankroll is based on a 20% strike rate, you could significantly reduce that with a much higher strike rate. 

I would still stick with the 80/20 bet type, and look to decrease bankroll requirements, or switch to Kelly staking, when you're comfortable with the selection process. 

Initially I would recommend you look at the VDW Strategy at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/instant-strategies/ in video two. Watch that a couple of times, and then run a few sample races here so I can take a look and we can adjust the approach.


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Psnug
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13/02/2020 8:35 pm  

Great.  Thanks for that Michael, I have watched the video and will use the VDW to pick a couple of bets tomorrow and post them here.


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Psnug
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14/02/2020 9:18 am  

Good morning - having looked at the VDW method I have come up with two bets today: a win bet on Greaneteen Fakenham 2.10 and an 80/20 bet on Fix Sun Fakenham 2.45.  I have only done a win bet as Betfair are not showing place odds on the 2.10.  I have not had a bet on the other 2 VDW recommended races as for the Fakenham race there are two many possibles and I am uncomfortable betting on horses that I have no previous from to judge them by and the Sandown 2.10 race the Monte Carlo system rates another horse higher than the VDW which again makes me uncomfortable to bet on it.

 

I would be interested to hear what you think of this approach


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Michael Wilding
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14/02/2020 4:15 pm  

This is a really good start, and you got a winning day to start which is also nice 🙂

A good decision to not place bets that you aren't comfortable with. 

Make sure that you are recording these in a spreadsheet (or notebook) along with finish position and odds, as well as any notes on why you selected the horses. If you've looked at other races and discarded the horses, keep these in a different spreadsheet along with notes of why you discarded them. You also want finish positions and odds on the horses you discard as we can use this later on to confirm that your discards are being correctly discarded.

I'm really looking forward to working with you on this and following along. Please continue to post the selections here each day. Let's get a couple of weeks worth of selections and then take a look at the results and see how we can tweak it and adjust it to optimise it from there.


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Psnug
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15/02/2020 1:33 pm  

Good Afternoon Michael  IAm really looking forward to this afternoon.  Todays bets are:

Ascot 1.50 Pym, Haydock 2.05 The Worlds End, Haydock 2.40 Gerolamo Cardano, Haydock 3.15 Yala Enki, Ascot 3.35 Cyrname, Haydock 4.25 Ramses De Telle, Ascot 4.45 Pure Bliss 

All bets 80/20

 

 


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Psnug
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16/02/2020 11:28 am  

As conditions are still desperate, only two bets today, both at Navan 80/20

13.50 Magic of Light, 16.00 Captain CJ

 


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Psnug
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17/02/2020 11:26 am  

@admin 4 bets today all 80/20 bets Lingfield 15.40 Captain St Lucifer, Carlisle 15.55 Teesecomponents Lad, Kempton 18.30 Godhead, Kempton 19.00 Lord P

 


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Michael Wilding
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17/02/2020 8:08 pm  

Thank you for sharing the selections, would you be able to also share the daily and total results as well? I've had a quick look through but would be good to see the actual numbers.

Please make sure you are keeping the discarded horses and notes on why they were discarded.

What criteria are you using for the VDW races that you are choosing, I noticed the first day you had more races with bets than the four strongest VDW races?


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Psnug
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18/02/2020 1:24 pm  

Good Afternoon Michael

 

I use the VDW ratings as the starting point, take the first three /four on score, then research against the other ratings - if a horse is in the first three on other ratings as well, and are predicted to finish in the first three on Monte Carlo, then they're a bet. I try and do this with all races, though I seem to get very mixed results on the all weather.

Yesterdays results:  Lingfield 3.40 Captain St Lucifer 6th  Carlisle 3.55 Teesecomonentslad 2nd,   Kempton 6.30 Godhead 1st, 7 Lord P 7th  for a £64 profit

 

Todays bets: Musselbrough 2.30 I'm Too Generous, Punchestown 3.20 Well Set Up, Musselburgh 16.05 Goldencard.  All 80/20 bets

 

 

 


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