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Psnug
(@psnug)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 67
26/02/2020 11:41 am  

Todays bets all £25 stakes on 80/20 bets staking £5 on win £20 on place using best odds taken from oddschecker:

Market Rasen 1.25 Cawthorn Lad win odds 5  Place odds 0.5

Musselburgh 15.40 Frightened Rabbit win odds 4.5 Place Odds 1.1

Southwell 14.05 Gorgeous General win odds 1.63 Place odds 0.5

                         Final Legacy win odds 2.25 Place Odds 0.73

Southwell 15.35 Asdaa win odds 8  Place Odds 3

Kempton 19.00 Agent Of Fortune win odds 3.33 Place odds 0.91

 


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Forum 1
(@andrewp)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 398
26/02/2020 6:06 pm  

If you are [referring to my bets on Monday] then the results were:

Capla Spirit £5 loss on win OK £39.40 win on £20 place This includes £20 stake so profit was £19.40

Accessor £5 loss on win OK £26.4 win on £20 place This includes £20 stake so profit was £16.40

Equidae £5 loss on win OK £20 loss on place OK

Buy Me Back £5 loss on win OK £34.60 win on place This includes £20 stake so profit was £14.60

A Go Go 35 loss on win Why was the win stake £35?  I thought results were to £25 80/20 bets.

£46.80 win on place How do you get this from the odds and stakes?

The figures you've given don't total the £102.20 profit you cited earlier. I'm sorry, I'm really confused. I just can't fathom out how selections with A/Es of 0.72 win and 0.84 place at BSP can be returning a profit.


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Psnug
(@psnug)
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26/02/2020 8:57 pm  

Pressed 3 instead of £ so should read £5 loss and if you multiply 2.34 by £20 you get £46.80. 


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Psnug
(@psnug)
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Posts: 67
26/02/2020 9:00 pm  

@andrewp I do not understand what you mean by A/E of 0.72 win and A/E of 0.84.  Simply take each bet as a seperate entity and you end up with a profit.  You are trying to make it too complicated when it really is quite simple.

 


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Psnug
(@psnug)
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26/02/2020 9:30 pm  

A day of hitting the bar. 1 1st, 3 -3rd & 2 7th place finishes means a loss on the day of £76.85 


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Forum 2
(@michael-clarke)
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Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 784
27/02/2020 12:26 am  

PSNUG, you need to exclude the stake before calculating profit !

 


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Forum 1
(@andrewp)
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Posts: 398
27/02/2020 6:14 am  

Pressed 3 instead of £ so should read £5 loss and if you multiply 2.34 by £20 you get £46.80. 

I see, my mistake with the 2.34, I transcribed it as 3.4. But  the prices you have (apart from those quoted yesterday) include the stake and you're not deducting these stakes from your returns to get the profit.

I've taken the selections as separate bets and I can't get a profit to any staking system I've tried.

That's why I converted the bookmaker prices to chances (1/price) and added them (expected winners). Dividing the expected winners into the actual number of winners (A/E) is the way to measure likely profitability independent of any staking system. The figures are so low a profit is very very unlikely.


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Psnug
(@psnug)
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27/02/2020 11:35 am  

@andrewp  OK my bookmaker accounts show that I am making a profit.  If you do not believe in my system that is your right, but I do and am making a nice profit

 


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Psnug
(@psnug)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 67
27/02/2020 11:51 am  

Todays 80/20  bets to oddscheckers best odds: Ludlow 2.15 Chambard 3.5 1.25

2.50 Oscar Ashe 4 1.63,

3.25 Another Venture 4.5 0.8 (three places), Roll Again 4 0.8 (three places)

Newcastle 3.45 Canwenann 2.13 0.8 

Clonmel 3.45  Ballea Fox 3.6  Evens (3 places)

Ludlow 4  Kilconney Bridge 2.25  0.57

Newcastle Kwela 7 1.25 (3 places)

Chelmsford 7.30 Griggy 3  0.62

8 Tebay 2.5 0.36   Lady Of York 5.5 1.75 (4 places)

1 win bet Chelmsford 5.30 Ice Ice Lady

All to £25 stake.  


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Forum 1
(@andrewp)
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27/02/2020 9:18 pm  

If you do not believe in my system that is your right, but I do and am making a nice profit

I don't think it's a matter of belief @psnug, I'm just trying to understand the figures.

It looks as though earlier on you may have multiplied the decimal price (including stake) by the stake and taken that as the profit. We've all done it at one time or another. That's why I think it's good to keep a spreadsheet or table of calculations and post it up so others can check for errors. I don't think I've ever produced spreadsheets/calculations of any size that are without errors. The sooner you catch them the better.


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Psnug
(@psnug)
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28/02/2020 12:49 pm  

@andrewp the fault in your reasoning is that you get the stake back ON TOP of your winnings, so you don't need to minus the stake from winnings.

 


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Psnug
(@psnug)
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Posts: 67
28/02/2020 1:01 pm  

Yesterdays results were again disappointing with a £44.75 loss to £25 stakes from 2 1st, 1 2nd, 4 3rd, 3 4th, 1 6th, 1 10th.

Todays bets (all 80/20), are: Doncaster 14.35 Goobinator               0.67, 0.1

                                                          15.05 Imada        4 places  9       1.5

                                                          16.10 Molly Ollys Wishes     1.38   022

                                           Newbury  15.50 Full Back     4 places  11     1 

                                                          16.20 Mr Murchan 4 places  6.8    0.8

            


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Psnug
(@psnug)
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28/02/2020 1:09 pm  

Sorry, pressed wrong button!!!!     Lingfield 16.00  Total Commitment   1.88  0.67

                                                                16.35   Miss Elsa                0.96  0.33                                                   

                                                   Dundalk  17.30   Billyfairplay             3.5   0.44

                                                                            Bellick                    4      0.62

                                                                  19.00  Crossfirehurricane   2.45  0.5

                                                                  19.30  Master Power          2.3    0.5

All odds from oddschecker best odds this morning  


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Forum 1
(@andrewp)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 398
28/02/2020 1:11 pm  

the fault in your reasoning is that you get the stake back ON TOP of your winnings, so you don't need to minus the stake from winnings.

Yes, you get stake + winnings back but the stake is what you put in. The winnings are your profit. 

For example, you stake £5 on a winner at 3.0.

You get £15 back. (£5 x 3)

£5 is your returned stake (£5 x 1)

£10 is your profit (£5 x 2) you take 1 off the price to get the odds to .

 


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Psnug
(@psnug)
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28/02/2020 1:14 pm  

@andrewp In fact I have just noticed that what I have not done on the place winnings is take of the losing £5 win stake.

 


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