Robin's Horse Tips 2/7/20.
Hills are now currently offering 10/3 on 'My Laureate' to come in 3 places. 🙂
Thanks for the positive comment Steve.
for a relatively new member i would say your doing really well tbh , i'm guessing though you have loads of experience in picking out selections for horse racing in general .
Reason: Is another PR odds contender & is also a past CD winner here.
I tend to take CD winners as a negative, although CD winners have a higher strike rate they are over-bet by the market, AE on the flat over the past 6 years is 0.97. For horses that haven't won over C or D the AE is 1.01.
At last some decent racing today (for what I tend to look for anyway). Had to get up early. as I got important stuff on today. I am already running late now, so I am having to do this post quickly.
Tip 1) 1pt Trixie: 15:25 GowanBuster (15/8), 18:35 HelloGirl (3/1), 19:05 Tell Willian (4/1) (I used 'SkyBet')
Tip 2) 4pts to place on Hello Girl & Tell William (Around evens)
Tip 3) 3pts 16:00 Kupa River to win (9/4 Betfair) 1pt Str/fcast Ginger Max-Kupa River (Bet365)
Unfortunately, yesterday 'Tell William' got overtaken just before the winning line; this turned what would have been a small profit into -8pts instead.
Prev 2 day = -3-8 = -11pts. 😔
Ongoing P&L = +13.5pts. 🤑
No bets today.
Tip: Ayr 14:20 2pts E/W 'Star Of Saint James' (4 places at 14/1 with SkyBet)
Reason: Selection has enough good pointers to merit a punt on what looks to be decent odds.
Agree Think Inductive will win but good place bet.
'Star Of Saint James'
5278CFR --- 2
MC Sim --- 2
Selection has enough good pointers to merit a punt on what looks to be decent odds.
The above statement is a bit 'woolly'. To hone your pricing up of selections, why not record three columns of information,
- the percentage chance you think the horse has of winning/placing (e.g. 20% = 0.20)
- the percentage chance indicated by the market price (1/decimal price including stake)
- Whether the horse won (or placed if a place bet)
Totalling these columns gives you the number of winners you expect, the number the market expects and the number of actual winners. All would be independent of staking regimes so a true measure of pricing skill.
If actual winners divided by market expected winners is greater than 1, you are beating the market. If actual winners divided by your expected winners is less than 1, it would indicate you are estimating chances too high and you can adjust accordingly. After a decent number of selections you would develop a very accurate nose for estimating chances/prices.
So far your selection method appears to be good. To Betfair SP I estimate an A/E of 1.26 or a 26% advantage.
About My Tips:
Just for the sake of providing some clarity I thought it might be cool if I gave some reasoning behind my own way of trying to profit from racing. I hope this not seem arrogant. I not mentioned this before, as I did not want to come across like that. I am a fundamentally live & let live laid back kind of guy. And TBH, if there was a nearby happy 9-5 work environment that I knew I could qualify for; then i prob never would have got so involved in horse race betting. But do not get me wrong though, i do enjoy the thrill of watching a horse race when you have financial gain as a reward for having your horse win. It is just that a happy work environment would trump that and i would have ended up just skimming the odd race now and again to see if i might get lucky about once a week.
However, my social skills are not so great (in a commercial world apparently) and so most 9-5 work environments that i might qualify for are not that inspiring to me. So i guess what i am saying is that i now find achieving financial rewards 'using outside the box' methods more rewarding and better for my own self-esteem. Or to put it simply, i am more happier doing this than trying to survive in a world where i do not have any cool connections to give me a 'leg up', so to speak.
Anyway, enough of my intro (waffling). The thing I wanted to share is my approach to horse racing. (I also place bets on basketball & tennis. But I rarely do football bets as i find it hard to get consistent results from.) But my personal horse-racing mindset approach is to look for 40% win opportunities with a 200% or 2/1 profit when i have a win. That is my 'key pillar' that i work around (unless i am doing a safety bet, then it is more like a 70% win expectation with a 50% return). I do think it is important in this game to have a your own key pillar, or pillars to work around. I am not advertising my own mindset here, but I think having your own key pillar that works for you as a starting point in the betting game will tend to ground you more than not having one. So this should hopefully put you on a more secure footing to make more sensible decisions. A bit like why a ship needs an anchor, i guess lol. 🤔
So yeah, in a nutshell, i am looking for around 40% of my bets to win at 2/1 or better, always as my starting point.
Not tips today.
I'm following your tips ( Plus reasoning )
I want to put a bit of pressure one myself and tip a couple of strong fav.LOL
Yarmouth R1 Portrush
Yarmouth R2 Nasraawy
Catterick R4 Brazen Belle
Kempton 6 Almighwar
Kempton 9 Cristal Pallas Cat
Let see what happen.
Good on you Zutie, letz see what happens.
Rest assured that i will not be quick to judge you on your selection outcomes.
I hope that your horse racing selection instinct will indeed go in your favor.
Good Luck Today!
@zuitie Just a tad advice from me to you, is that it is better in my experience to go with horses at 4/1 or upwards in odds. I would personally back 33/1 shot horse on a win & place bet.
The reason why backing horses below 3/1 is so tricky, is because you have to think like you need that selection to win to justify your bet. Whereas, if you go with a 4/1 plus horse, then you can get value in a place cover bet, if they not win.
I hope this helps? 🤔
TBH i am a little hacked off from a feedback i had the other day for being 'woolly' in my tip selections.
Well where can i start on that scrutiny?
1) I do not get paid for doing such tips here.
2) It takes me like 25 minutes of my time (cus i am 50yrs old now) to make sure my message is correct from start to finish. .
3) Some days i have to deal with my own personal depression in my life.
4) I resent having to explain myself that much, when others only can explain themselves less (in my life experience.)
If this gets me banned from here, then so be it. 😡 😀
@robinjpiddock I am pretty sure Andrew was just trying to help, and didn't mean to offend. I am certainly enjoying following your thread. You can put in as much or as little reasoning as you like 🙂 I personally always ask for me whenever someone asks me to give advice as it makes it easier for me to understand what's going on behind the scenes (so to speak)
I think having your own key pillar that works for you as a starting point in the betting game will tend to ground you more than not having one
I completely agree with this, and is one of the reasons I ask the four questions I do as I like to help create these pillars.
Who are you going to be following today?
If this gets me banned from here, then so be it. 😡 😀
your going nowhere robin i hope , and absolutely no chance whatsoever of getting banned , why what for ? , i can see that your a little upset but like michael has said and having read through andrew's post again i do think all he was trying to do was give some good advice , the only thing he possibly shouldn't have included was the expression " woolly " , i looked it up and it's completely unwaranted for this thread and what your doing imo .
i have always enjoyed following your tips and reasoning from the start and the other day i subscribed to it so as not to miss any via e-mail .
this site to me is the best around for the value that you get and you couldn't get a nicer hard working person than michael steering the ship so don't let one comment upset you , please stick around and enjoy the ride and carry on with just what your doing , because your doing just fine 😉