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Robin's Horse Tips 2/7/20.  

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Robin Piddock
(@robinjpiddock)
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31/07/2020 6:56 am  

Tips 31/7/20

   Tip 1) 13:55 Pont Dutch Win Bet 4pts Frankelio @ 9/2, 3pts Striding Edge @5/1, 2pts Straight Ash @12/1 & 1pt Beverely Bullet @ 25/1 (Most odds provided currently available with Bet365).

 Reason: I do like the look of Frankelio in this race, as it ticks all the right boxes for me. It does well in nearly all the usual ratings that i have prev referred to. Initially i was going to do an 80/20 bet on this horse. However, i could not bring myself to ignore the 25/1 odds on 'Beverely Bullet', as this horse has a superior PFP to the rest of the field & was also up there in the Speed Graph for race conditions. Striding Edge also did well in the MC Sim & Straight Ash, showed up also in the Speed Graph. So i have decided for a 10pt total outlay, for around a 10pt profit. (If you jiggle the pts around slightly, i am sure that Evs overall odds can be achieved, whichever horse wins.)  

Tip 2) Wolvs 17:35 3pts E/W on 'Our Man In Havana' @7/1 (Using Bet365 4 place special offer )

 Reason: The selection has great recent form and is proven on the A/W. The horse has a good 52/78 rating and has the best VDW rating. It also came out ahead when i did the MC Sim. At the price of 7/1, i think this horse is great value right now. An alternative bet could also be an 80/20 bet on selection to win and 3 places at 15/8 with 'SkyBet'. But hopefully there will be non-runners again like last time and we will get around a 2.3pt profit if the selection finishes within 4 places.

  Good Luck!


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Robin Piddock
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01/08/2020 8:21 am  

 Tips 1/8/20

        Bonzai!! Its a wrap for the end of July and we managed to finish here iin some fine fettle. For August I am wiping the slate clean again. But also, this time I am running the month using a staking method. This will be from a starting bank of 600pts, where if in the worst case scenario 10 losing bets happen in a row, then this will result in a 300pt loss. But I am hoping it will be quite a while before this happens here... 🤔 😟 

   Yesterdays Results:  Tip 1) +11 (+1 xtra for n/r) , Tip 2) -6 = +5pts 😀 

    July Result: +61pts 🤩 🍾 😆 

  Tip 1) 16:10 Good 1pt Win @13/2 & 5pts 3 places @ 6/5 'King Ragnar' (Gen/Skybet) 1pt Win @20/1 & 3pts 3 places @7/2 'Fleeting Prince'. (Gen/Skybet) (Total outlay 10pts).

Reason: King Ragnar has solid form coming into this race and good stats for the distance. He came out top in my MC Sim check & seemed okay in the speed graph. 'Fleeting Prince' is used to running at this kind of level and is included as a possible dark horse in the race, considering how well it does in the Speed Graph I looked at, it also comes third in the 52/78 col i think.

    Tip 2) Chep 20:30 3pts Win @10/3 & 14pts 3 places @ 4/6 'Lafontaine' & 1pt Win @ 33/1 & 2pts 3 places at 13/2 'Champagne Highlife' (Odds from Skybet/Hills & generally) (Total outlay 20pts)

 Reason: Lafontaine came out ahead in the MC Sim and is actually the only horse in the race that has a prev win. Champagne Highlife for me showed there was enough reason to think this could possibly be the dark horse in the race. So i thought it was worth including at such a high price.

Good Luck!

    


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Robin Piddock
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01/08/2020 8:56 am  

Revised Tip 2)

    Dammit, 'Lafontaine' has been pulled from the 20:30 race. Which kind of messes up the bet a bit.

 So here is the revised new bet now.

 Tip 2) Chep 20:30 An 80/20 bet on 'Champagne Highlife' 1pt win @ 20/1 & 4pts 3 places @ 4/1. 

   Note: The main reason i like this horse is due to the odds value compared to its favorable showing in the RA speed graph.

 


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Michael Wilding
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01/08/2020 10:14 am  
Posted by: @robinjpiddock

Bonzai!! Its a wrap for the end of July and we managed to finish here iin some fine fettle. For August I am wiping the slate clean again. But also, this time I am running the month using a staking method. This will be from a starting bank of 600pts, where if in the worst case scenario 10 losing bets happen in a row, then this will result in a 300pt loss. But I am hoping it will be quite a while before this happens here... 🤔 😟 

   Yesterdays Results:  Tip 1) +11 (+1 xtra for n/r) , Tip 2) -6 = +5pts 😀 

    July Result: +61pts 🤩 🍾 😆 

Congratulations, a superb result. Looking forward to seeing August’s. What staking plan are you following this month?

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Robin Piddock
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01/08/2020 1:27 pm  
Posted by: @mikeywilding

What staking plan are you following this month?

    It is a bit complicated to explain, but fundamentally i will be using the following cycle as both a SAAW & SAAL (this means the cycle begins again every time a result is the opposite from the prev one in the cycle. 

Cycle A is: 10pts/20pts/20pts/30pts/30pts/30pts/40pts/40pts/40pts/40pts = 300pts total.

The idea here is to try to safeguard against a small run of losses & also capitalize on any winning streak. I think this can work well where the strike rate is around 50%, but if the strike rate is below that, i think it then becomes a lot more risky for having a long losing and blowing the bank before some nice profit has built up. Also, at the end of every week the pts are recalculated again to provide a new total bank to work with. I use Cycle B for every Win/Lose result at the start of a sequence. Cycle B starts at 20pts (this offsets the 20pt loss against only a 10pt staked win). 

Though i will not always be doing this bet by bet, so to speak. Today my 20pt tip had to be changed due to a non-runner. So i will now look to carry the 'spare' 15pts over to tomorrow & use this number of points as the first bet. Hopefully this will make more sense as I continue to provide tips in this way...  


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AndrewP
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01/08/2020 2:36 pm  

Hi Robin,

An excellent month, well done. It was a model of uncomplicated selection finding, discipline and bet structuring. Well, almost model bet structuring, there are some suggestions I would make here (I'm like a stuck record when it comes to staking).

I took a look at your July record and calculated the A/E for your selections to straight back, place and lay bets. To Betfair SP I got something like 1.37 and to prices stated 1.21. That's 37% ROI - massive! A/E is effectively proportional staking (mathematically the safest way to bet to cope with losing runs).

Many of your bets were close to proportional stakes but rounded to units or half units. they focused on the profit on each bet rather than the long-term profit overall. My suggested staking would be to stake to return (i.e. including stake) a proportion of your bank balance (recalculated every day).

One way would be to divide your 600 points into 10 units and stake each bet to return one unit. Another would be to estimate your edge as 0.5% and stake the proportion of your bank equal to edge/odds. The former is safer, the latter could be more of a roller coaster but very rewarding. I would also drop any accumulator or fancy bookmaker bets.

I'll keep a sheet recording the above and we'll see how it goes.

Thanks a million for posting, it has illustrated much of what Michael preaches about betting.

Andrew


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Robin Piddock
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01/08/2020 7:19 pm  

@andrewp Okay Andrew, thank you for the time & effort that you have afforded my tips. It might perhaps be the wrong move for me to introduce my staking plan into the mix. But i will try doing so for August & if it not seem to work out, then i will revert back to the usual style I did in July.

I will take onboard your findings also, going forward. 

My char strong suit is having a good instinct towards 'amalgamation' in a situation & i also think that i have a very good handle on statistics. Understanding statistics has never really been a prob for me.

But i respect that you have a better mathematical mindset than myself. So i do appreciate your input.

Thank you.

  Robin     


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Michael Wilding
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01/08/2020 9:41 pm  

@robinjpiddock thank you for the details 🙂

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Robin Piddock
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02/08/2020 8:11 am  

Tips 2/8/20

   We managed to get off to a flyer here at the start of August, with a 20/1 winner advised early in the morning! (I know it did eventually come right in to 6/1 in the end, but hopefully any followers here managed to get on early?)

  Yesterdays Results: Tip 1) +1pt Tip 2) +26pts = +37pts 😮 😎 

 August Current Betting Bank: 637pts. 🤑 

Tip 1) Newc 12:50 1.5pt Wins & 6pts 4 places on both 'Cape Greco' @12/1-5/2 & 'Steal The Scene' @14/1- 5/2 (placed using Skybet)  Overall outlay 15pts.

Reason: I believe that both these selections are currently a bit over-priced. They do well in all the usual checks on RA and so i would hope that at least one of these horses can come in 4 places today, to give us a profit in the race.

Tip 2) New 13:25 2pt Win @15/2 & 16pts 3 places @2/1 on 'Astrozone' 2pts Win 'My Kinda Day' @ 9/2. (using Skybet/Bet365 & Hills) Total Outlay 20pts.

Reason: It is a shame really for this race. I would have made the tip on 'Astrozone' a Nap, but for its poor draw. The race has a strong draw bias and the good high draw that 'My Kinda Day' has, does i believe give it a strong edge in the race. So i have also added in that horse to possibly take the race. On the upside, the most recent poor form race of 'Astrozone' was not on an AW track and it seems to much prefer this surface, looking at past form. So i am hoping that it can still overcome its poor positioning in the race to at least come 3rd & i also think it is over-priced at 17/2.

Good Luck!


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Robin Piddock
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02/08/2020 9:49 am  

NAP Extra Tip 2/8/20

    Tip 3) 13:45 Sand NAP 80/20 4pts win @16/1 & 16pts & 4 places @ 9/4 on 'With Promise' (Betfair Sbook)

    Reason: This horse may not win the race, but for me it is the stand out value bet of the week. It has the best VDW score (in what is a high % VDW race). It also came a close 3rd when i did the MC sim. Although it did not perform so well in its last race, this was a 6f and it was still going on at the end of race. Also, it is carrying 3lbs less here and judging by the speed graph, making at least 4th place, should be very doable in this race. At worst, i make it just Evs to come in 4 places. So for me the value is certainly there for this bet.


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AndrewP
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02/08/2020 10:35 am  

Great call with Champagne Highlight Robin. For the life of me I couldn't see anything in the figures but I'll take another look in hindsight and see what I can see.

it did flag up with me as too big a price though (27 on Betfair after withdrawal of Lafontaine) so worth 0.037 of a point to return 1 point.

Bank

Proportional stakes Betfair SP = 691.73

Proportional stakes Betfair average a.m. = 701.70

Kelly staking (0.25% edge) Betfair SP = 979.54


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Robin Piddock
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02/08/2020 12:24 pm  
Posted by: @andrewp

Great call with Champagne Highlight Robin. For the life of me I couldn't see anything in the figures but I'll take another look in hindsight and see what I can see.

  I agree, that horse was very dismal in most of the ratings. I think I just perceived it as a potential threat to Lafontaine when looking at the speed graph alone. At the time it was about 33/1 (before Lafontaine became a non-runner,) so i thought i would just include it in the original bet as well. 

 FYI: I normally just filter the speed graph with just the going and race type. Unless, it is still very cluttered after that. 


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AndrewP
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02/08/2020 12:47 pm  

And there it was, right in front of me. I don't use Race Advisor software and I tend to undervalue speed figures but in my electronic formbook CH was,

Top ranked on best speed figure, and 'consistent improved speed' figure. Third ranked on mean and median speed figures. That should have leapt out at me but didn't.

Thanks Robin

 


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steve arnold
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02/08/2020 12:52 pm  
Posted by: @andrewp

And there it was, right in front of me. I don't use Race Advisor software and I tend to undervalue speed figures but in my electronic formbook CH was,

Top ranked on best speed figure, and 'consistent improved speed' figure. Third ranked on mean and median speed figures. That should have leapt out at me but didn't.

Thanks Robin

 

interesting , you don't use RA software ? , so begs the question why i you here then ? , what is EF CH ?


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AndrewP
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02/08/2020 1:04 pm  

CH = Champagne  Highlife

EF - where do you see that?

The forum is open to everyone Robin. I've been knocking around racing groups for decades and I'm always keen to learn new things from others and share my experience with them.

I have used Race Advisor software in the past but on balance I prefer what I have.


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