Samuel's 4-Step Strategy
2. 30 mins when at work. Plenty while Covid 19 is about
3. A week
@sampreston I've made this thread for your strategy, please use it to ask any questions specific to the approach we're going to build out here, leave any example race analysis, post selections and/or results 🙂
Before I give a suggestion of a base strategy to start with, when you say a week long losing streak makes you uncomfortable, do you mean that if you had 28 losers in a row you'd start to get uncomfortable (based on four selections a day), or would you be uncomfortable before 28 losers in a row?
I would be uncomfortable if I had 10 losers without a win. I have tried Aldermist using the VDW method. I have yet to take a look at the different strategies and all the other different ratings. It does look very comprehensive to me at the moment. I am hoping to combine 2 or 3 of the ratings along with the VDW to narrow down my selections. It wouldn't bother me if I only had one selection a week a four in a day, as long as I can increase my strike rate and try and omit some of the losers.
@sampreston thank you for clarifying for me. No more than 10 losers in a row means we need to work on a method with at least a 50% strike rate, and we can definitely use VDW for this. Are you happy to be betting at shorter odds, around even and some odds on selections? We will be betting in this sort of area if using back bets and looking to achieve a strike rate of around 50% or higher. Alternatively we could look at dutch, 80/20 or place betting. Which is your preference?
Hi, I am not keen on backing odds on to tell you the truth. Evens is the lowest price I would take. I am prepared to lower the strike rate if that helps avoid any odds on selections.
@sampreston that's no problem, this is one of the reasons going through this before we start looking at a strategy is so important. Lowering the strike rate is generally what I recommend as a last resort. This will have the impact of increasing the losing streaks. Just dropping the strike rate by 10% can increase losing streaks by as much as 40% or more. The impact of an increased losing streak is likely to be far more detrimental, as it's much harder to get through something you are not completely comfortable with. How would you feel about different types of bets instead of back? Possibly 80/20 where 80% is placed and 20% is on the win? This gives you a higher strike rate, but with the possibility of making a nice return when the runners take first place.
@mikeywilding sorry for the delayed response. That sounds good to me. I would be happy to try 20% win and 80% place betting. My problem is finding the right selections to bet on. I've selected Breanski in the 1245 at Newcastle got 10.00 for the win and 3.2 for the place on the exchange, the sportsbook was 15/2 at the time. Breanski has good form at Newcastle.
Update. I had £100.25 in my betfair account this morning. It is now £122.24. That is from 8 bets @ 20% win and 80% place using VDW with a couple of other ratings. I am positive I can eliminate more bets with a better system. Place betting looks like a great way to go for me. Thanks for all your input and advice. I have never used the exchange till today and I think it is a great option if you are unsure if a horse can win but know it is capable.
@sampreston that's a great start. If you want to share the approach you're using, and maybe one or two selections and how you came to them each day, then we'll be able to help you optimise and improve on it.