Short Price Novice Racing
I am hoping this might be of interest. In essence it was Michael's blog on how to profit from novice racing that triggered my interest in seeing if I could follow this strategy. Initially I tested the strategy he outlined over approximately 40 races from the period of a month. I made an overall loss of £-43. However much of this could a one day moment of madness when I bet on 5 races in one day which lost me around £-50. So you might say I was close to break even. From this test period some rules emerged which I will go on to outline, after saying that from my go live date the following results have emerged:
|Afraid of Nothing||1.26||1||12/09/2019||Epsom|
|Caius Marcius||1.58||1||20/09/2019||Newton Abbot|
Profit is £66.21
Staking method is percentage at 2% of a betting bank of £715. So this is all very exciting and of course I am waiting inevitably for a first loser as frankly in all my times of betting I have never had a winning streak like this.
So obviously this is early early days, but fun! What has made the difference I think apart from sheer luck (always a possibility) is my set of rules, so I will finish this post with them.
Bank must be properly managed so I have implemented a strict rule of 2% of allotted betting bank.
Use Michael's cards as step one of a filtering process and follow his ratings as described in his post.
I am using for want of a better phrase a "Gap" Principle: Favourite only but must show a clear odds separation from its nearest rival. This is not difficult to make in practise, and it does often decisively rule out races I otherwise considered in my testing phase. Average odds for my nine selections is 1.52
Other rules with some caveats:
Generally bet on one race a day - this controls the chance of chasing losses - I did run two in my selections that were extremely short odds on favourites. One bet a day however is good for my karma.
I prefer small races 3 - 9. However I have relaxed this rule if there is an extremely hot favourite running and I will seek to confirm this horse by using for example a trainers performance card, I created - example above was Miss Yoda.
Checks: I also look at the races selected through the standard card and use ratings there. Obviously be aware that with usually few runs the data may not help. I check opinions of tipsters on odds comparison sites such as Oddschecker and other sources. All this is done merely to confirm how strong the selection is perceived to be. The link to the befair site in the software is most useful for this as is the Timeform information. I also added, courtesy of somebody who I can't remember, a forecast odds rating onto the novices card as Betfair odds early on in the evening before race day is not fully formed. I place my bets on the next day.
So that's about it, depending about how well this post is received I might give an update of how things proceed. Also any thoughts would be welcome - e.g. entering the jumps season could be interesting.
Excellent post Ian, thank you. I have a few comments,
1. Think about relaxing the 'one bet per day' rule if you can. If there's no bet that day, leave it. if there are more very strong bets, take them.
2. Fewer runners with a favourite odds-on to win or a large gap between the first two favourites tips the edge in your favour so stick with this.
3. Take a look at the Betfair extra place markets and consider requesting an SP relative to your stake. There is enough liquidity for small stakes.
4. Try running 'stakes to return 10% of bank' against your records. You may find this better in the long-run. There in a spreadsheet in the link in my' 80%SR 3%ROI' thread you can use. Staking 2% when your selections have between 86% and 39% market chance of winning suggests you have a miniscule edge on the 1.16 shot and 3% on the 2.56 shot. This may not be far from the truth but it's worth looking at other variations.
5. Keep records and analyse in price bands. If you can accurately assess your edge in each band, you can improve your staking and increase your profit for no additional risk (Kelly).
6. You will get long winning runs (win odds-on are 29/30 in my sheet) but inevitably, the longer you play , the more likely that losing run will appear. The above advice will prevent over-staking.
7. Keep us posted on how it goes.
Very interesting read - long may the winners continue to roll in.
Thanks both for your interest.
Andrew: I take on board your comments and will see how they can be incorporated into the existing idea or maybe lead to a new strategy.
Glad the post has been well received - it gives me confidence to continue. Will keep you posted.
Great post, thank you for sharing Ian. TBH I couldn't give better advice at the moment than what Andrew has already given.
Hi Ian, from your first post.
i might be the “courtesy of somebody who I can’t remember, a Forecast Odds rating .........” person. I am looking at Novice racing, but I think I might using a different interpretation about Michael’s thoughts on Novice Racing.
But what I would like to ask about is your table. You say that you are using 2% of £715 bank, which I took to mean a stake of £14.30 on day 1, £14.37 on day 2, £14.82 on day 3 etc. 2% of the new bank at the end of each day, which would have meant a profit of £69.81 according to my figures. If I use a flat stake of £14.30, I get £67.21. When will you be reassessing the bank.
i have had health and other personal issues over the past couple of weeks, but ongoing I would like to compare your results with mine, although they won’t be directly comparable because I will be backing all qualifiers in each of the Novice races.
Thanks for your interest. More importantly I owe you thanks for your thread "Ninja Portfolio" for suggesting the forecast odds addition to the card!
I am not that good at maths I am afraid - always been a weakness, regrettably, so am not sure where the discrepancy lies. I do this side of my betting through Betfair, hence 5% commission is payable. I do have occasions when I back more than one selection a day and the system I use recalculates after each bet.
I am happy with the idea of comparing results, but whereas you are an established member, with an established setup, I am still working my head around this strategy. It is not yet set in stone. I plan to publish results weekly similar to my first post re. table.
I thought that was where you got your Forecast Odds selection idea from, glad you found it useful.
I am mainly using SkyBet for my investments mainly because of BOG and my weekly club bonus. The 5% commission probably accounts for the difference in my calculations.
As for being an established member, I’m not. I’ve had membership with RA in a variety of forms for a few years, but only recently re-joined. I think I will be staying long-term now because virtually everything I want seems to be part of the pro-membership package.
My portfolio was created in August, revamped at the end of the month. This month I have been given grief in recording my results and a couple of health and other personal issues. So I don’t have much data to do my monthly review with; I am happy with the Novice selection process but I might be making changes to the other selection processes, this weekend.
Good luck with SkyBet they restricted my account a few years ago along with Paddy Power, Bet365 and some other Bookies, not that I was making that much, just consistent profit which they regard as bad for their business. Still hanging on to some: WH, BetVictor, Ladbrokes and Coral.
Interesting to hear a bit of your background.
No contenders for me tomorrow on my novice strategy but I am posting results so that is good.
A bit odd the way some bookies restrict some and not others, I am fine with Sky and Bet365 despite winning large amounts with them but I was restricted by WH and Coral after winning small amounts.
Bet 365 restricted my In Play betting last year after a short run of success on Football betting where I was betting on the Over x.5 Goals and waiting for the Odds to hit a certain mark before placing the bet.
Not that it makes much difference as my Football bets are a total disaster this season (so far)
Bet365 restricted my account - I made the mistake of listening to somebody who was really knowledgeable on Greyhound Racing but his style of Betting was complicated. I only followed him for a couple of days, long enough to upset them though but I did little more than break even.
I can’t use Paddy Power for some reason - They can’t see a problem with my login problems.
My results are too inconsistent with Sky to upset them yet. Down over the year, but not had a losing month since May, although I am currently down by £2.89 this month.
Ian, I did get 1 selection today, but not reporting anything until October, when changes to my portfolio and recording spreadsheet have been completed.
Nothing like mentioning bookie restrictions to stir things up a little!
However down to the business: here is an update:
|12/09/2019||Epsom||Afraid of Nothing||1.26||1||14.3||3.53||718.64|
|20/09/2019||Newton Abbot||Caius Marcius||1.58||1||15.46||8.52||781.32|
|23/09/19||Leicester||Law Of Peace||1.79||0||15.63||-15.63||765.69|
|26/09/2019||Chelmsford City||Cobber Kain||1.37||1||14.87||5.23||748.57|
Ok sorry about repeating all results - will get better with this in future. As is obvious "fun" as stated in my last post soon changed to serious concern Three bad results changed my profit figure for the worse in dramatic fashion. BTW not sure I will post all the financial aspects as it is a little poor taste/unseemly to be doing so but I did a quick copy and paste and here we are. So had the tables not turned back a little in my favour I might have quit the post to go away and work on the strategy. However from all the stats shouting I was soon to be entering my bank and results looked more down to luck we are now back in business for now. Snapshot of the stats (still hugely unreliable given the number of bets) gives me an 80% strike rate, ROI is 19.20, average odds is 1.58. More could be said on stats regarding is it all down to chance, expected losing run etc but I feel this is too early, even if interesting to me, to report on. Things to consider might be to analyse: missed opportunities, what went wrong (well they lost) and so on. This is difficult because when you are winning you feel confident and when you are losing, well you know what I mean. More to the point you are dealing with no form of any significance most of the time. The last horse Isabella Brant did worry me as this was a horse with various form (not won) and if you like coming back to a novice race. It was a qualifier but not straightforward. Mighty relieved to see that come in.
Andrew made some very helpful suggestions and I have relaxed some rules, good bets are just that so I take them, although I missed a winner which would have altered the losing sequence but I go with my decision on the day and excuses and hindsight analysis of that kind should have no place in betting.
I have relaxed also on the number of runners - Cobber Kain was in a 10 runner race and too good to miss.
I did not grasp the enhanced Betfair place terms - is that only available on Sportsbook? If so no good to me as they shut me down as well.
Could not see you post in full on the forum - not sure why - still interested but not sure how it would work - is the right to access it restricted?
Thanks a lot for suggestions - analysing in price bands makes sense.
Now for something different as I need some help. Sorry that it is on a different topic but you may find it of interest.
I have been doing some 20/80 betting - all part of my aim to make £10 a day on average out of my betting - there I have said - my objective. However I lack the tool to record these. So far out of very few bets I have made £32 profit. I've made my selections from all kinds of sources. However last night I tried out Michael's strategy from his blog on Reynolds Rankings. I found the 16.20 at Musselburgh a handicap class 6. Using the cards 4 of them from the blog I went through the race - I used the youngster trick of today of using my mobile phone to take the necessary four snaphots of the first 6 in the race - the only qualifier was Astrophysics. After checking going etc. I also used a handicapping card from the article on unused/unusual ratings in the "Knowledge base", Astrophysics came top. I placed a 20/80 bet at 11am this morning - it won! BTW not one other pundit BV, RP, Oddschecker had it as the possible winner or even as a ew possibility.
So how do I record these bets? Any help appreciated - I have excel but am a bit of a dummy so any simple methods using excel would be appreciated.
Thanks for reading.
Just one thing to add to my Astrophysics story. I also used the speed graph - very useful to get a picture of the possible contenders.
You could just track such bets on a seperate sheet/workbook. This is what I do with my odd bets (Today I got Boudica Bay which had previously won for me but today couldn't cut the mustard) and also when I place bets in the bookies rather than on-line.