Short Price Novice ...
 
Notifications
Clear all

Short Price Novice Racing  

Page 3 / 3
  RSS

Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1396
07/10/2019 11:59 am  

Great post and analysis of your selections, that's what it's all about to progress and come closer to the larger profits. 

When you looked back at Qaseeda could you see anything that may have highlighted such a poor performance? Or indicated that what the in-running comments say might have happened?


ReplyQuote
Forum 1
(@irmurr50)
Eminent Member
Joined: 9 months ago
Posts: 20
07/10/2019 9:38 pm  

There might have been a difference regarding some of the rating scores but I would need to look back at that. My main feeling is that if there is a close gap between two and the rest then it is not always wise to look for a place possibility though it might seem a low risk option. The fact that there are two close contenders,  might suggest there is a weakness in the chances of the two chosen for a possible place bet. Go for clear favourites appears good objectively and is simpler. We shall see.


ReplyQuote
Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1396
08/10/2019 1:19 pm  

Ian Murray_1 said
There might have been a difference regarding some of the rating scores but I would need to look back at that. My main feeling is that if there is a close gap between two and the rest then it is not always wise to look for a place possibility though it might seem a low risk option. The fact that there are two close contenders,  might suggest there is a weakness in the chances of the two chosen for a possible place bet. Go for clear favourites appears good objectively and is simpler. We shall see.

  

That would make sense to me as well.


ReplyQuote
Forum 1
(@irmurr50)
Eminent Member
Joined: 9 months ago
Posts: 20
12/10/2019 10:48 pm  

As I cannot find a selection tomorrow I will update now with a rather mixed set of results:

  08/10/2019 Leicester Karisoke 1.49 0 15.33 -15.33 751.08
  09/10/2019 Newcastle(AW) Good Tidings 1.34 1 15.02 5 756.08
  10/10/2019 Exeter Hang In There 1.55 0 15.12 -15.12 740.96
  10/10/2019 Kempton(AW) Premier Power 1.52 1 14.82 7.55 748.51
  11/10/2019 Chepstow Silver Forever 1.87 1 14.97 12.76 761.27
  12/10/2019 Chepstow Reserve Tank 1.66 0 15.23 -15.23 746.04

Conditions for racing have not been pleasant and just maybe that did not help. However this is what happened:

Karisoke was my second choice after Catterick had been abandoned. Came in fourth in heavy going, won by a 66/1 beating second by 1.5 lengths

Good Tidings convincing win

Hang In There here is the comment: "hampered, carried right and unseated rider 1st"

Premier Power some consolation to strike back on the same day - 5 length winner.

Silver Forever 4 length winner

Reserve Tank well beaten into second by the outsider of the three horses.

Still in there but now further back down in profit. The stats figures are all looking poor at this point but let's see what happens next. Whatever that is I will report back.

Thanks for reading.


ReplyQuote
Forum 1
(@irmurr50)
Eminent Member
Joined: 9 months ago
Posts: 20
20/10/2019 9:08 pm  

A brief update:

  14/10/2019 Yarmouth Donnybrook 1.46 1 14.92 6.73 752.77
  17/10/2019 Wincanton Enrilo 1.58 1 15.06 8.56 761.33
  18/10/2019 Wolverhampton Chasing Dreams 1.29 1 15.23 4.33 765.66

Weather has been poor so maybe fewer selections, also have chosen to focus upon odds below around 1.60 as after 32 bets it is time to start analysing where most winning bets come in. Result fewer selections but better strike rate and just maybe a better chance of moving forwards.

Patience required now.


ReplyQuote
Forum 1
(@irmurr50)
Eminent Member
Joined: 9 months ago
Posts: 20
27/10/2019 7:56 pm  

Another update:

  22/10/2019 Kempton Raaeb 1.45 1 15.31 6.75 772.41
  24/10/2019 Ludlow Humble Hero 1.54 0 15.45 -15.45 756.96

Time, I think to withdraw the updates. I remain in profit but no progress. This must become less interesting as a post. I still intend to work on the strategy and should it begin to make a profit above the target established in my initial post then I will report back. I have to say there has been a reduction in the number of possible contenders at this time and maybe there is a time in the future when it will pick up or I will learn more. I have learnt quite a lot from using this strategy and thanks for the comments I have received.


ReplyQuote
Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1396
28/10/2019 12:42 pm  

Thanks for sharing Ian. I would be very interested to hear any you changes you make to the original approach in the future, why you made the decisions and how it worked.


ReplyQuote
Forum 1
(@irmurr50)
Eminent Member
Joined: 9 months ago
Posts: 20
28/10/2019 6:12 pm  

Thanks Michael

I have some ideas. I have missed out on a few but that was to do with domestic affairs. As you say always another possible contender in the future.

Will keep you and others informed .


ReplyQuote
Page 3 / 3
Share:
Back to top button
Close
Close