Simon P's 4-Point Strat
This is too good an offer to refuse. Thanks. So here are my answers.
1) What type of bet do you prefer? Back, Lay, Place, Each Way, Dutch, 80/20 etc.
I back mostly, but like dutching as well.
2) How much time do you have available on days you bet to find selections?
I am a bit time poor which is why I tend to use systems rather than detailed form analysis. I have nothing against form analysis and if I get time I can get some reasonable results but I know for consistency systems work better for me.
3) After how much time in a downswing do you start to become uncomfortable?
I tend to like shorter downswings. Once I get to 10 or more I get anxious. I am trying to work out if it is a natural downswing or is the system is broken. I tend to work on systems based around the favourite for this reason. I do however like to look at favourites with larger odds, say above $3.00 for example. The one thing I am sure of is that favourites have a pretty consistent strike rate overall.
4) How many selections do you like, roughly, in a day?
I like to get a few selections in a day. Don't like micro systems for example as there just isn't enough action. 5 or more selections per day let's say. I like to automate things so number of selections isn't an issue.
Probably happy to look at AW races as there seems to be more consistency there. I am from Australia so jumps will always be a bit of a mystery to me. I also get the feeling that shorter races seem to be a little more consistent but that may be just an impression.
Love to hear your thoughts about how to take all that and apply is in a sensible way.
@simon-parker thank you for the detailed answers. This is all sounds great as a basis, but there are a couple of elements that we need to make some decisions on as they don't quite align.
If you start to get uncomfortable with about 10 losers in a row, then focusing on higher odds favourites is likely to go into your uncomfortable zone at some point. For example, if you're average odds were 3.00 then you can expect a losing sequence of 19 at least once in every thousand bets. You would b et around 1800 times a year with an average of 5 per day, so you could expect this at least twice a year, and they could be back-to-back and still not be an indication of a broken system. If 3.00 is your minimum then your average odds is likely to be much higher and the losing streaks longer.
You want to be aiming for a strike rate of 50% or higher to keep within a losing streak of 10, but always remember you could get these losing streaks back-to-back, so potentially could still be longer.
The first element we need to make a decision on is whether you're happier betting at lower odds, or if you think you will find it easier to cope with significantly longer losing streaks?
I know you say you don't like micro-systems because of the lack of volume of bets. However, the best way to run micro-systems is to run large portfolios of them. This gives more bets and balances out. When tracking them we track them individually and as an entire portfolio. I think this approach may suit you, as it's comparatively easier to find profits in micro-systems, and as long as the tracking is good we can keep building new micro-systems and add them into it. Would that be an approach that you think would work for you, or would you be more comfortable with just one or two bigger systematic approaches?
Thanks for your response. Been contemplating your questions which is why it has taken a while to reply.
In terms of micro vs larger systems I think the answer is a couple of bigger systematic approaches. I have a few systems on the go already so I think it might be useful to keep overheads down. I record everything and have spreadsheets on everything so simple might be good on this one.
In terms of odds I think we will go with the bigger odds. I will manage the longer losing streaks.
Great, thank you for the extra information. With all that in mind, I think this method would be a good starting point:
You can use the Daily Stat Pack, and click on the View All button to get the details you need for steps one to five.
We can then systematize the last few steps, this may take a few trials and adjustments to get right.
If you could start by reading that method, and if you're happy let me know and we can look at the ratings we can start with to complete the last steps.
OK Michael, I have had a look at the Daily Stat Pack. If I have read the method correctly we are looking for horses that appear both in the Trainer and Jockey section.
Ready for the next step.
@simon-parker when you go to View All, scroll to the bottom and get the shortlist 🙂
Next we want to open the race and check that each of the horses have had a good race in the last 180 days. This isn't a hard and fast rule, it should be based on the other runners in the race. If most of the runners haven't had a good race in the last 180 days (can happen around the change of seasons) then adjust that to make it of a bigger gap. If all the runners have had a good run within the last 180 days, but only a few have raced well in the last 90 days, then shrink it down a bit.
Any horse that hasn't had a good race recently eliminate.
Next check if the horse is in the 5278 CFR top four. If not put a negative against it.
Check if the horse is a PR Odds contender, if not put a negative against it.
Now run an MC simulation, using the Standard race card, and put a negative against the horse if it's not in the top four.
Any horse that has more than one negative should be eliminated.
Next watch this video on break-points
Use that on the odds to find the first break point in the odds, your selections should be before that break point in the market.
Start testing that approach, it will take a bit of practice and adjustment. Keep records and we will make adjustments once you've got some more data. When we've got this working for you then we can add in more approaches to give you a bigger volume of selections.
Will try that and report back on the results.
Just to report back. Started 26 Feb and have identified 29 bets for 4 winners. Two of those winners were very low odds.
Not sure I am applying everything perfectly and I need to streamline a few things. It is usually the extra horses after applying the break points that win so far.
I am on holidays for 4 weeks at the end of the week so there will be a lull but I want to continue this when I get back.
@simon-parker thank you for reporting back so far. Have a great holiday. When you're back give us some examples of a race analysis 🙂
Hi Michael. Finally got back to looking at this. COVID has interrupted everything so it has taken me awhile to get back to this. Glad I did though.
Been a bit more systematic about identifying selections and are very much in the groove now.
I will get back to you with some numbers when I have a bit more data but the results are encouraging.
Most of the approach is straightforward but I thought I would ask if you had any more guidance on the odds break point.
I ask because I had a set of odds that ran 3 5 7 9 10 11 19.
I have been assuming the break point should be a substantial jump. If so in this case it would be from 11 to 19.
At other times though a jump of 3 seems to be enough to separate out a different cluster of odds.
Have you got any rules of thumb or any other comments for this part?
Michael, while we are talking about break points got another sequence for you.
Just did a race with the odds spread of 5 8 8 11 12 15 16 19 26 27
Where would you put the break point?
In particular are the 2nd and 3rd favs (both on $8) in the same group as the fav?
Great to see you back, I hope you are well. There is no hard and fast rule about break-points. You can also use the 50+1 rule as well in combination, which would mean on the second example you wouldn't go past 15 anyway, however on the second example I would probably have chosen 12 being the last before the odds break point.
The first example is harder, and the break between 11 and 19 is the clearest. However, based on the number of runners I'd have gone for 7 to 9, unless there was a good reason to indicate keeping any of those runners in.
That helps a lot.
What is the 50+1 rule? Is that the total of the odds?
I am trying not to put up a perpetual list but I had some odds in the 1310 at Bangor today that made me pause.
What do you do for short price favs regarding the break point?
In the 1310 the odds were 1.7 6 6.8 10.5 55
Would you put the break after the fav or between 6.8 and 10.5 or after 10.5?