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(@lordrullah2)
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Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 34
13/08/2020 11:43 pm  

115 Airglow
250 Burmese Waltz
535 Illustrious Spirit
605 Princely
705 Zapper Cass
755 Katherine Place


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(@lordrullah2)
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Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 34
14/08/2020 12:01 pm  

535 Jaganory


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(@lordrullah2)
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Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 34
14/08/2020 1:35 pm  

145 What A Business


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(@lordrullah2)
Eminent Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 34
14/08/2020 1:51 pm  

145 P sometimes Jockeys drive me crazy all what a Business needed to do was let the front runner go on JE was never going to last home at this stiff track ,but know battle with him all the way and fall in a heap ,WTF lucky its only 1 bet !!


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(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2394
14/08/2020 6:07 pm  

Frustrating for sure, but as you say, only one bet. Do you use jockey and trainer info in your analysis?

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(@lordrullah2)
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Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 34
14/08/2020 7:31 pm  

@mikeywilding yes and no its a difficult one to broach 


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(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2394
14/08/2020 10:21 pm  

I very rarely use connections data, I prefer to assume that most of the time they're going to be trying to give the horse a good run, and accept the occasions when they're clearly not.

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(@lordrullah2)
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Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 34
14/08/2020 11:09 pm  

@mikeywilding there's a race tomorrow with an apprentice on ,had 1 winner this season ,the horse is pace advantaged .What do you do ?


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(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2394
14/08/2020 11:18 pm  

@lordrullah2 which race/horse?

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(@lordrullah2)
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Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 34
14/08/2020 11:19 pm  

315 case key


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(@lordrullah2)
Eminent Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 34
14/08/2020 11:26 pm  

personally knowing Newmarket it will be very fast , case key front runner but there's 1 or 2 to apply pace pressure, a good jockey would be able to handle the situation will he. Value would be lethal Angel ridden by another questionable jockey .


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(@lordrullah2)
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Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 34
15/08/2020 3:02 pm  

Turns out Newmarket has some juice in and Doncaster hasn't

 

315 my style 


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(@lordrullah2)
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Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 34
15/08/2020 3:54 pm  

435 Machree

455 Mad Endeavour 

Lack of sprint action today so adding 

610 Polyphony 

 


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(@lordrullah2)
Eminent Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 34
15/08/2020 7:54 pm  
115 wentworth fallsu/p-1 
145 Gamesomep2.99 
310 princelyw2.314.08
340 Coronation Cottage  w2.046.76
145 Newyorkstateofmindu/p-1 
500 A go go u/p-1 
445 Han Solo Berge p2.8 
150 Theotherside p2.52 
425 Wedding Date p1.41 
455 Nibras Again u/p-1 
215 Tone The Barone u/p-1 
130 Under Curfew p1.44 
230 Muscika u/p-1 
305 Redzone p3.35 
155 Watchable w1.844.6
300 Grandstandp2.4 
330 Mr wagyuu/p-1 
630 Major Jumbop1.49 
230 Mashmoomp2.23 
225 Camachessu/p-1 
155 Redrosezorro p2.95 
450 Grace Plunkettu/p-1 
310 Newgate Angel w2.99.81
340 Kendred Soul u/p-1 
535 Aquadabra u/p-1 
210 Lady Celia p2.84 
310 Dark Defender u/p-1 
600 Storm Melodyu/p-1 
630 Shoot To Killp2.3 
115 Airglowp6.4 
250 Burmese Waltzu/p-1 
605 Princelyu/p-1 
705 Zapper Cassw1.923.85
755 Katherine Placep1.68 
535 Jaganoryu/p-1 
145 What A Businessu/p-1 
315 my style w2.385.66
435 Machreeu/p-1 
455 Mad Endeavour u/p-1 
610 Polyphony w1.924.43
  12.21-0.81

 

First 10 days place only bets up over 12 points win bets nearly 1 point down. I've not calculated the split stake ,I'm trying to prove what I think I already know,place bets are steady income without long losing runs. I would say I need 6 months to prove - What would you say Micheal as a time frame to prove something works ?


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(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2394
15/08/2020 9:02 pm  

@lordrullah2 as a bare minimum you want 100 winning bets before making an assessment. You're currently getting around a 15% strike rate for win bets, which seems a bit low, have you calculated the a/e?

Place strike rate is about 53%. 

Based on this you'd want a minimum of two months for place bets and six months for the wins. But always the longer the better. You have to be confident in them so you can keep going through the losing streaks.

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