Steve A's 4-Step Strategy
1. back to lay trading bets -----50% profit / 100% dobbing / 200% trobbing , any of those but obviously a good enough s/r to go with
2. i only work in the morning so really i have a lot of time available
3. 10 losing bets
4. probably something like between 3 and 10 a day , all aged handicaps only , minimum runs 10 ...so lots of form to go on
not sure if you can help with this at all , but if so there can be some leeway involved in creating a racecard for me
@future thank you for posting your answers. This is your thread for the strategy we're going to develop. Please use it for questions, example analysis, selections, and results as we can use all this information to make adjustments to the approach.
We can definitely work with all of these bet types, although the approach may be slightly different to what you've seen elsewhere 😉
Please could you start by watching the video Betfair In-Play Strategy at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/instant-strategies/
This is a solid basis for both back to lay and dobbing/trobbing. I'd start with the lowest movement you're happy to accept, which would be a dob (or back to lay if you're happy with a smaller than 50% movement).
Once you've watched the video please could you let me know your thoughts, if it's an approach that you like, if there's anything you don't like, what you are/aren't comfortable with, then we can adapt it where necessary to suit you before starting to practice it. Once we've got a number of selections we can look at the results, and then make adjustments before doing a longer test run. We repeat this approach until we have a solid strategy working for you that's making a minimum of a 5% ROI.
ok so thanks first of all for taking the time up to have a look for me .
the video that you put up i actually watched a few days ago as it would happen , but i have watched it again anyway .
i'm happy enough to go with a 50% profit tbh because the s/r should be higher .
now he's the problem i'm not a member and i didn't sign up for the one month trial which you took down a couple of days ago and i'm not paying out £40.00 just to test an idea out .
ok thanks michael i'll give it a go tomorrow , i'll record all bets for 50% and 100% ( dobs ) and see how it get's on for a month before i commit to joining up if that's ok with you .
could you give us a strategy racecard as well to test out starting for tomorrow for A v B on betfair using again just all aged handicaps please .
@future for AvB I would actually start with the Monte Carlo simulation and see where each of the two horses sits, and what their pairing percentage wins are (as opposed to overall percentage wins). That will give an idea of the immediate comparison. I'd then consider the 5278 CFR, PR Odds Probabilities and DSLGR as a first step to see if either was significantly weaker. If there wasn't a clear imbalance at. this point I would move on. If there was I'd want to confirm the weaker horse didn't have a preference for type, ground or distance, and that the stronger horse did.
This second part can be done with ratings as well. I'd look at using the preference ratings, you can see their descriptions at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/ratings-list/ and type "Preference" into the search field under the description. I would be using them as a quick and rough indicator only. I'd use the raw or DiffTp versions of the ratings so I can see the difference in scores between runners.
ok thanks for all that michael i'll start to give that a go tomorrow as well as the trades and i will record those as well .
didn't work out i'm afraid , not enough selections happening every day .
i did make a card myself for dutching it started well and then faded away again !
in the time i have left on my free trial can you think of an " out of the box " method for dutching bets that hasn't been used before for me to trial .
@future which approach didn't have enough selections, and did you manage to record results on the selections you did find?
What was the dutching card you were using, and how were you using it?
In terms of dutching, for a very high strike rate, you can cover most of the competitive field. Take all the PR Potentials, remove any that haven't had a good run for a long time, or have never had a good run.
This is very rough and ready, I would recommend that you look into each of the runners in more detail to confirm that they can be competitive in the race.
Here's an example of a race I just did very quickly, but as I say I suggest you use this as a base and put more analysis on top to confirm the selections.
i'm afraid neither were giving out enough selections michael so i didn't record the bets , the trouble i found with the avb as well was betfair didn't load them up till nearer the race .
on my dutching card i made i'm afraid i deleted it , the way i like doing things is to see selections in the first 3 or 4 of all the ratings .
thanks for the help
i was though really hoping for something new that you hadn't tryed before for me to just test out .
also i now think i'll leave things till the 5278 is fixed , they are not showing up on all the races i like ( handicaps )
also now just noticed DSLGR wrong ...eg 8.30 windsor race deft and rocket rob , so will wait now
Please can you give me some examples of races they're not on that you like. We can't calculate them for every race and I want to check if we don't have enough data for those races or if there is a bug. We do have a feature to be added where we highlight if ratings should be missing due to a lack of data.