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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1395
20/01/2020 11:18 am  
Posted by: @w841mak64

1440 Haydock 1.5pt Dutch & Vintage Star 0.5pt to place

Acting Lass-Champers on ice-Definitly Red-Flying Angel-Vintage Star

 

A few people may raise an eyebrow at me selecting VS on face value the PR 1.05% chance, on the going 0/8 & 0/15 in the class, in racing nothing as easy as it seams, so i look at the place side of form 8/8 100% going & 9/10 90% course & 9/9 100% in field sizes of 8-11 & class & dist not to shabby, lets address the PR 6/9 winners of this race have been the bottom half of the rating why ? in this instance haydock when its realy heavy it realy is a bog and it was raining again last night, past winners on heavy going 9 races only to at the weigh 11.2 &  11.3 the rest in the 10s, stats generally should be ok here both Trainer and jockey have strong records here, the Speed graph shows VS running a Career best lto at haydock in heavy going, of the other runner progressive chase graph also posted a similar speed figure on heavy going.

 

I absolutely love this analysis Jeffrey, thank you for sharing. A great example of why we should always check multiple factors/tools before making a decision.

Great to see you're in profit for the month now whatever happens 🙂


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Forum 1
(@w841mak64)
Estimable Member
Joined: 10 months ago
Posts: 178
22/01/2020 8:46 pm  

15:00 Gowran P 3-Pt Dutch

Smoking Gun-Ex Patriot-Roaring Bull-Moyhenna

will not have time to post in morning due to work.

 


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Forum 1
(@w841mak64)
Estimable Member
Joined: 10 months ago
Posts: 178
24/01/2020 7:20 pm  

1515 Doncaster 3Pt Dutch

Calipto-Chidswell-Fingerontheseitch-Looksnowtlikebrian-Quarenta-Ravenhill road


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Forum 1
(@w841mak64)
Estimable Member
Joined: 10 months ago
Posts: 178
01/02/2020 7:31 am  

1405 Musselburgh 1.5pt Dutch

Ashington-Groverman-Kaiserslautern-Miranda-Raashdy-Seaborough-Sebastopol

1500 SANDOWN 3pt Dutch

Go whatever-agrapart-Ask Ben-Ask Dillon-Big shark -Limited reserve-West to the bridge

1545 Leopardstown 3pt dutch

Thosedaysaregone-Builmeabuttercup-Daybreak boy-Embittered-Minds eye-Thatsy-Top moon-You raised me up-Sire du berlais


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Forum 1
(@w841mak64)
Estimable Member
Joined: 10 months ago
Posts: 178
01/02/2020 6:37 pm  

1/3 🙄 could have been better or could it ? In the 15:45 there was 2 ratings historical which showed strong 9/10 VDW and Monte Carlo simulation the winner on my shortlist failed both.

in the 15:00 the 5278 rating again the winner failed on this I had chosen to scrub any runners that didn’t match that.

Generally speaking I have to eliminate starting with which ratings I dream strong.

On the plus side the shortlists are generating winners now 60% of the time from 33% to 40% of the runners, sometimes I do have to go beyond those percentages it depends what the figures give me.


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Forum 1
(@w841mak64)
Estimable Member
Joined: 10 months ago
Posts: 178
02/02/2020 1:30 pm  

I shall revise what I said yesterday, not been feeling well over the last week so I ended up cutting corners, at least one of the 2 other winners was selectable the 15.45 there was around 14 trends and the only runner to clear all was the winner, in the other 15.00 the winner was 3/3 on the going and was joint top on the trends with another from the 17 runners.

  • Rule 1 if passes al trends and is only runner automatic selection.
  • Not a Rule but if horse is 3/3 or better in a category Going-Class-Course-Dist-Field Size requires close scrutiny most likely selection has a liking for that particular type.

Hopefully this includes further value into future selection processes.


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1395
03/02/2020 9:51 am  

Sorry to hear you've not been feeling well, I hope you start to feel better soon. Even so, always a good idea to pose the question you did every now and then, even better when you find the answer quickly 🙂


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Forum 1
(@w841mak64)
Estimable Member
Joined: 10 months ago
Posts: 178
08/02/2020 10:15 am  

15:35 Newbury 3 pt Dutch

Chiel de neige - Ecco - Flegmatik - Gumball - Highlly Prized - Neff - Never Adapt - Sir Valentine - Stolen River - Thebannerkingrebel


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Forum 1
(@w841mak64)
Estimable Member
Joined: 10 months ago
Posts: 178
09/02/2020 7:38 am  

16:25 P 3 pt dutch

 Cle en main - Forza Milan - Ifyoucatchmenow- Killer Miller - Minella till dawn - Roaring bull - Rocks silver


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Forum 1
(@w841mak64)
Estimable Member
Joined: 10 months ago
Posts: 178
15/02/2020 7:23 am  

15:00 Ascot 2PT dutch

Docking boy-Le kilos-Myplaceatmidnight-The Con Man

15:15 Haydock 1.5pt Dutch

Lord du mesnil-Pobbles bay-Steely addition-The two amigos

15:50 Haydock 1pt 

Kris Spin-River arrow-Tree of Liberty-Young bull

 

Hopefully Racing goes ahead today.

 


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Forum 1
(@w841mak64)
Estimable Member
Joined: 10 months ago
Posts: 178
22/02/2020 8:08 am  

15:35 Kempton 2.5pt Dutch

Dashing perk - Adrien du pont - Crievehill - Highway one o one - Just a sting - Kildistart - Mister malarkey- Sametegel - Talkischeap - Whatmore


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Forum 1
(@w841mak64)
Estimable Member
Joined: 10 months ago
Posts: 178
22/02/2020 3:47 pm  

Mister malarkey claws 5.88pts and a better finish just a small loss on the month, should have been a profit this month but a few lessons learnt.

 

Mister malarkey was on the shortlist but was primarily selected because it was on a previous selection 1 run ago in December, what seams common is any horse that was a selection a number of them are winning within a few runs so must be watched closely.


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1395
24/02/2020 1:39 pm  

@w841mak64 great headway. Would love to hear the lessons you've learned this month if you'd be happy to share them 🙂

 


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Forum 1
(@w841mak64)
Estimable Member
Joined: 10 months ago
Posts: 178
24/02/2020 2:20 pm  
Posted by: @admin

@w841mak64 great headway. Would love to hear the lessons you've learned this month if you'd be happy to share them 🙂

 

More to do with rushing analysis when wasn’t feeling ok cut corners basically, the 2 winners 1 had 3/3 either at distance or course and the other winner was top rated on the trends but clear of the rest.

I have a notebook now that needs to be referred to when I’m looking at a race, additional info also added last weekend previous selections who didn’t perform for whatever reason a percentage of these are going onto win within a few runs, I read this as a good proportion of these are ready to win but may have encountered problems in race or other problems race conditions may have changed etc mister malarkey was one such runner.


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 1395
24/02/2020 9:52 pm  

@w841mak64 excellent, thank you 🙂

 


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