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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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Posts: 1894
20/04/2020 9:59 am  

@wearthefoxhat thank you for sharing ūüôā

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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jude barreto
(@barretojude68)
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23/04/2020 3:44 pm  

@wearthefoxhat Thanks for the link Nicholas , it was an informative read.


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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
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24/04/2020 10:45 am  
Posted by: @barretojude68

Hi Nicholas.

 

I like your idea of scaling Maria's system down and looking to turn £ 300 into £3,000.

 

I used to back horses , and to be honest my performance was dire .I then attempted pre race trading and Forex  [also with mixed results ] . I then attempted to lay horses in the place market and also tried various horse racing systems  and nothing clicked . Laying in the win market [ at least on paper ] is the first thing that appears to work. I have had a 620 lay trial and so far I have been fortunate enough to achieve a 93 % S/R. On average a horse has won every 16.8 races during my trial . and as I mentioned the average lay price has been 6.4 . I appreciate that a paper trial does not replicate the emotional stress associated with a real bet . I have either been very fortunate during my trial or it is a form of betting that suits me.

 

The trial has been based on my own methodolgy .

 

Do you intend to go live with your laying  ,once racing resumes Nicholas ? 

Yep, along with some other ideas too.

 

Yesterday went well (Dutching with Insurance)

 

 

 

 

 

1587721555-24April_.jpg

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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
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24/04/2020 11:14 am  

Todays (24th) went okay too.

 

 

 

1587723263-25April_.jpg

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jude barreto
(@barretojude68)
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24/04/2020 12:32 pm  

All the best for the future Nicholas .


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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
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24/04/2020 1:58 pm  
Posted by: @barretojude68

All the best for the future Nicholas .

Thanks, and you too.

I'm trying to attach an excel spreadsheet, any ideas on how to do it?

 

 


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jude barreto
(@barretojude68)
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24/04/2020 3:17 pm  

Not sure how to do it Nicholas - sorry !


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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
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24/04/2020 4:31 pm  
Posted by: @barretojude68

Not sure how to do it Nicholas - sorry !

I managed it ok.  The post just above your last one you can download and save.

 


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jude barreto
(@barretojude68)
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24/04/2020 8:22 pm  

Many thanks Nicholas .Have a good weekendm Jude


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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Posts: 1894
25/04/2020 11:41 am  

@wearthefoxhat thank you for sharing, I've also added this to our Community Tools at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/community/horse-racing/community-tools/

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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jude barreto
(@barretojude68)
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29/04/2020 6:36 pm  

Hi Nicholas  , I hope that you are well and that your place lay research is bearing fruit.

 

I thought that I would share with you the results of my win market lays [ Paper trial ].

 

Races 1,000  lost 948  Horses won 52 paper profit to a £ 3,000 bank [Using Maria's staking system ]

£11,960.

 

Av lay price 6.4  ROI  [ approx  11 % ] Expectation of a horse to win 1 in every 19.27 races.

 

S/R 95.02 %.

 

How are the place lays going Nicholas  ? Regards Jude.


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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
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29/04/2020 6:52 pm  

@barretojude68

 

Hi, nice results!

Have been using my time looking at the win lays hoping to convert them into place lays, easier said than done.

Win lays are more consistent when aiming at weaker favourites. ie: focussing on a favourite not rated in the top 3 of the 5278CFR ranking. A few extra checks on the other ratings can confirm there are others in the race set to run a big race. These favourites do nick a place, but when unplaced, are usually short prices, so there's a trade off.

Doing it that way also finds a potential 20/80 to take on the favourite, or 3 to dutch at nice odds.

The R.A certainly is a big time saver, can't wait until the UK racing gets going again.

 


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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
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31/05/2020 8:50 am  

@mikeywilding

So looking forward to the 1st June restart.

I first heard of RA about a year ago, but didn't act on any trials or membership offers. When I did decide, the memberships were closed, so moved on.  When the lockdown started, I went through some old bookmarks and discovered the trial and access to the RA was available. 

Essentially, I used some racecard settings to evaluate historical races, mainly the AWR and the big festivals. What I found were very good results using logical testing, I believe I've only scratched the surface, but was quickly convinced the software will give me an edge on the way I bet. 

I've settled on 20/80 as the best way forward. Using RA, it speeds up identifying a strong qualifier and weak competition too. Combining those 2 factors are crucial long term. Also, the extra place market offers more protection as long as the minimum odds for break-even are met. (1.25) (after 2%).

I also increase stakes from profits only, using the square root plan.  ie:  square root any profit and add the new profit figure to the original stake, then calculate the new 20/80 stake. If losers found, never drop below original stake.

So, after 2 months on and lots of testing and reviewing, it was an easy decision to join up long-term.

 

1590911425-table.jpg

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AndrewP
(@andrewp)
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31/05/2020 1:31 pm  

I also increase stakes from profits only, using the square root plan.  ie:  square root any profit and add the new profit figure to the original stake, then calculate the new 20/80 stake. If losers found, never drop below original stake.

Is there any logic to this?

Strike rate and profitability (advantage) are broadly related to the odds/chance of the selection so wouldn't these factors be a better basis for staking?

 


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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
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31/05/2020 2:17 pm  
Posted by: @andrewp

I also increase stakes from profits only, using the square root plan.  ie:  square root any profit and add the new profit figure to the original stake, then calculate the new 20/80 stake. If losers found, never drop below original stake.

Is there any logic to this?

Strike rate and profitability (advantage) are broadly related to the odds/chance of the selection so wouldn't these factors be a better basis for staking?

 

Hi,

I suppose I'm angling more towards re-investing profit during a winning run.

 


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