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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
01/06/2020 5:43 pm  
Posted by: @wearthefoxhat
Posted by: @andrewp

I also increase stakes from profits only, using the square root plan.  ie:  square root any profit and add the new profit figure to the original stake, then calculate the new 20/80 stake. If losers found, never drop below original stake.

Is there any logic to this?

Strike rate and profitability (advantage) are broadly related to the odds/chance of the selection so wouldn't these factors be a better basis for staking?

 

Hi,

I suppose I'm angling more towards re-investing profit during a winning run.

 

The issue with that is, you don't know when the winning run will end, and you'll always be investing the biggest stake on a losing bet. Food for thought 🙂

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
01/06/2020 5:45 pm  
Posted by: @wearthefoxhat

@mikeywilding

So looking forward to the 1st June restart.

I first heard of RA about a year ago, but didn't act on any trials or membership offers. When I did decide, the memberships were closed, so moved on.  When the lockdown started, I went through some old bookmarks and discovered the trial and access to the RA was available. 

Essentially, I used some racecard settings to evaluate historical races, mainly the AWR and the big festivals. What I found were very good results using logical testing, I believe I've only scratched the surface, but was quickly convinced the software will give me an edge on the way I bet. 

I've settled on 20/80 as the best way forward. Using RA, it speeds up identifying a strong qualifier and weak competition too. Combining those 2 factors are crucial long term. Also, the extra place market offers more protection as long as the minimum odds for break-even are met. (1.25) (after 2%).

I also increase stakes from profits only, using the square root plan.  ie:  square root any profit and add the new profit figure to the original stake, then calculate the new 20/80 stake. If losers found, never drop below original stake.

So, after 2 months on and lots of testing and reviewing, it was an easy decision to join up long-term.

 

1590911425-table.jpg

Excellent. Is there anything that I can help with at the moment? I'm looking forward to seeing this progress and helping (if you want me to) make adjustments as it goes along. Remember to stop tweaking if you're hitting a 5% ROI or higher.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
Trusted Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 63
02/06/2020 9:05 am  
Posted by: @mikeywilding
Posted by: @wearthefoxhat
Posted by: @andrewp

I also increase stakes from profits only, using the square root plan.  ie:  square root any profit and add the new profit figure to the original stake, then calculate the new 20/80 stake. If losers found, never drop below original stake.

Is there any logic to this?

Strike rate and profitability (advantage) are broadly related to the odds/chance of the selection so wouldn't these factors be a better basis for staking?

 

Hi,

I suppose I'm angling more towards re-investing profit during a winning run.

 

The issue with that is, you don't know when the winning run will end, and you'll always be investing the biggest stake on a losing bet. Food for thought 🙂

Yep, you both make fair points, will review the staking articles again.

 


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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
Trusted Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 63
02/06/2020 9:13 am  
Posted by: @mikeywilding
Posted by: @wearthefoxhat

@mikeywilding

So looking forward to the 1st June restart.

I first heard of RA about a year ago, but didn't act on any trials or membership offers. When I did decide, the memberships were closed, so moved on.  When the lockdown started, I went through some old bookmarks and discovered the trial and access to the RA was available. 

Essentially, I used some racecard settings to evaluate historical races, mainly the AWR and the big festivals. What I found were very good results using logical testing, I believe I've only scratched the surface, but was quickly convinced the software will give me an edge on the way I bet. 

I've settled on 20/80 as the best way forward. Using RA, it speeds up identifying a strong qualifier and weak competition too. Combining those 2 factors are crucial long term. Also, the extra place market offers more protection as long as the minimum odds for break-even are met. (1.25) (after 2%).

I also increase stakes from profits only, using the square root plan.  ie:  square root any profit and add the new profit figure to the original stake, then calculate the new 20/80 stake. If losers found, never drop below original stake.

So, after 2 months on and lots of testing and reviewing, it was an easy decision to join up long-term.

 

1590911425-table.jpg

Excellent. Is there anything that I can help with at the moment? I'm looking forward to seeing this progress and helping (if you want me to) make adjustments as it goes along. Remember to stop tweaking if you're hitting a 5% ROI or higher.

Thanks.  When I get some 20/80 qualifers, I'll post them up. If there's anything specific to ask, I'll do so. (ok for now)

Good point about the tweaking. One thing to avoid is F.O.M.O. as there are many different ratings/rankings out there that might suddenly improve results (short term) but maybe not long term.

 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
02/06/2020 10:57 am  

@wearthefoxhat will look forward to seeing the qualifiers. Over-tweaking is the arch-enemy of bettors. We're always trying to make it a bit better, and often that has the opposite result. That's why I stick to an average 5% or higher return is best to just let it run.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
Trusted Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 63
03/06/2020 12:03 pm  
  1. Kempton 1.00  Never Dark
  2. Kempton 3.20  Merweb

20/80  (will use extra place if 1.25+)

 


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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
Trusted Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 63
04/06/2020 8:09 am  

Newmarket 6.30;  Pactolus  20/80  (roughly 7/1)

Likely Favourite @ 7/2 (Inclyne - Champion Jockey/In-Form Trainer)  Overbet?

  • VDW Odds  (poor)
  • PR Odds (poor)
  • MCS @ 48%

Pactolus;  9 year old been running in better races previously.

  • VDW Odds (good)
  • PR Odds (good)
  • MCS @ 70% (Top)

Danger; Escape The City @ 10/1

 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
04/06/2020 8:53 pm  

@wearthefoxhat thank you for posting. A good start with Never Dark, the extra information today is very useful. Unfortunately Pactolus got pretty held up, so it's going to be hard to know if that's the race. Inclyne went off at 3/1, which probably was overbet. Looking forward to seeing more, are you keeping a record of the results as well?

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
Trusted Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 63
05/06/2020 5:50 pm  

@mikeywilding

Yep, keeping a record. Egg on face with regards to the last one! 🤨 

The trainers and jockeys that have started well, will likely continue. The stat pack will start coming into its' own in the next few weeks,


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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
Trusted Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 63
06/06/2020 11:08 am  

Newmarket 5.20;  Will To Win 

  • Strong R.A.profile overall
  • Competitive 6f handicap (5.00Fav)
  • S.Crisford off form, but capable

 


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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
Trusted Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 63
07/06/2020 10:21 am  
  1. Newmarket  2.25    Davydenko  (20/80)
  2. Newmarket  4.10    Ebury  (20/80)

Both taking on Oisin Murphy/A.Balding favourites! (been here before)  😓 


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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
Trusted Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 63
07/06/2020 10:24 am  
Posted by: @wearthefoxhat

Newmarket 5.20;  Will To Win 

  • Strong R.A.profile overall
  • Competitive 6f handicap (5.00Fav)
  • S.Crisford off form, but capable

 

Non-Runner  (Hmmm not sure why - need to see stable running better)


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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
Trusted Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 63
08/06/2020 11:45 am  
Posted by: @wearthefoxhat
  1. Newmarket  2.25    Davydenko  (20/80)
  2. Newmarket  4.10    Ebury  (20/80)

Both taking on Oisin Murphy/A.Balding favourites! (been here before)  😓 

Both unplaced!  New Place lay system?  🙄 

 

Todays Qualifiers.

 

 

 

 

 

1591613114-8June.jpg

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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
08/06/2020 12:37 pm  

@wearthefoxhat it's always nice to have a good start 🙂

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Nicholas
(@wearthefoxhat)
Trusted Member
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 63
09/06/2020 9:55 am  

Results from Monday.

1591692901-June8thRes.jpg

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